Gail Tomblin Murphy

Beyond Demographic Change in Human Resources Planning: An Extended Framework and Application to Nursing

Objectives: To introduce health care production functions into human resources planning and to apply the approach to analysing the need for registered nurses in Ontario during a period of major reduction in inpatient capacity. Methods: Measurement of changes in services delivered by acute care hospitals in Ontario between 1994/95 and 1998/99, and comparison with changes in the mix of human resources, non-human resources and patient needs. Results: Inpatient episodes per nurse fell by almost 2%. At the same time the number of beds was cut by over 20%. As a result, the number of patients per bed increased by 12%. Allowing for severity, there was a 20% reduction in beds per episode and a 3.7% reduction in nurses per episode. Conclusions: The demands on nurses in acute care hospitals have increased as an increasing number of severity-adjusted episodes are served using fewer beds by a reduced number of nurses. Human resources planning traditionally only considers the effects of demographic change on the need for and supply of health care. Failure to recognize the variable and endogenous nature of other health care inputs leads to false impressions about the adequacy of existing supplies of human resources. Consideration of human resources in the context of the production function for health services provides a meaningful way of improving the effectiveness and efficiency of human resources planning.

The Relationship Between the Nursing Work Environment and the Occurrence of Reported Paediatric Medication Administration Errors: A Pan Canadian Study

Paediatric medication administration errors (PMAEs) occur frequently, with devastating consequences for children and their families. This study explored the relationship between the nursing work environment and the occurrence of reported PMAEs. In total, 127 potential and 245 actual PMAEs were reported. Workload, distraction, and ineffective communication were identified as significant contributors to the occurrence of PMAEs. Medical/surgical units reported more errors than critical care environments (p=.000) and a 2.9% increase in the frequency of reported PMAEs was noted for each additional bed on units (p=.001). This study supports the awareness that a systems reform is required to reduce PMAEs.

Pilot-testing service-based planning for health care in rural Zambia

BackgroundHuman resources for health (HRH) planning in Zambia, as in other countries, is often done by comparing current HRH numbers with established posts, without considering whether population health needs are being met. Service-based HRH planning compares the number and type of services required by populations, given their needs, with the capacity of existing HRH to perform those services. The objective of the study was to demonstrate the effectiveness of service-based HRH planning through its adaptation in two rural Zambian districts, Gwembe and Chibombo.MethodsThe health conditions causing the greatest mortality and morbidity in each district were identified using administrative data and consultations with community health committees and health workers. The number and type of health care services required to address these conditions were estimated based on their population sizes, incidence and prevalence of each condition, and desired levels of service. The capacity of each district’s health workers to provide these services was estimated using a survey of health workers (n=44) that assessed the availability of their specific competencies.ResultsThe primary health conditions identified in the two districts were HIV/AIDS in Gwembe and malaria in Chibombo. Although the competencies of the existing health workforces in these two mostly aligned with these conditions, some substantial gaps were found between the services the workforce can provide and the services their populations need. The largest gaps identified in both districts were: performing laboratory testing and interpreting results, performing diagnostic imaging and interpreting results, taking and interpreting a patient’s medical history, performing a physical examination, identifying and diagnosing the illness in question, and assessing eligibility for antiretroviral treatment.ConclusionsAlthough active, productive, and competent, health workers in these districts are too few to meet the leading health care needs of their populations. Given the specific competencies most lacking, on-site training of existing health workers to develop these competencies may be the best approach to addressing the identified gaps. Continued use of the service-based approach in Zambia will enhance the country’s ability to align the training, management, and deployment of its health workforce to meet the needs of its people.RésuméContexteEn Zambie, comme dans d’autres pays, la planification des ressources humaines en santé consiste souvent à comparer les données sur les ressources et le nombre de postes établis, sans égard aux besoins de la population en matière de santé. La planification fondée sur les services consiste à comparer le nombre et le type de services requis par les populations, en fonction de leurs besoins, et la capacité des ressources existantes à fournir ces services. L’étude avait pour but de mettre en oeuvre la planification des ressources humaines en santé fondée sur les services dans deux districts ruraux de la Zambie – Gwembe et Chibombo – afin d’en démontrer l’efficacité.MéthodesAu moyen des données administratives et de la consultation des comités de santé communautaire et des travailleurs de la santé, on a cerné les problèmes de santé qui causent le plus de mortalité et de morbidité dans chaque district. Le nombre et le type de services de santé requis pour traiter ces problèmes ont été estimés en fonction de la taille de la population, de l’incidence et de la prévalence de chaque problème et des niveaux de service souhaités. La capacité des travailleurs de la santé de chaque district à fournir ces services a été estimée grâce à une enquête menée auprès de ces travailleurs (n = 44), qui a évalué leurs compétences particulières.RésultatsLes principaux problèmes de santé relevés étaient le VIH/sida dans le district de Gwembe et le paludisme dans le district de Chibombo. Si les compétences des travailleurs de la santé de ces deux districts cadraient en grande partie avec ces problèmes, d’importants écarts ont été décelés entre les services fournis par ces travailleurs et les services dont ont besoin les populations qu’ils servent. Les écarts les plus importants qui ont été relevés dans les deux districts avaient trait aux éléments suivants : les tests en laboratoire et l’interprétation des résultats, l’imagerie diagnostique et l’interprétation des résultats, la vérification et l’interprétation des antécédents médicaux des patients, l’examen physique, le dépistage et le diagnostic de la maladie et l’évaluation de l’admissibilité au traitement antirétroviral.ConclusionsBien qu’ils soient actifs, productifs et compétents, les travailleurs de la santé de ces districts sont trop peu nombreux pour répondre aux principaux besoins de la population en matière de santé. Compte tenu des compétences particulières où les lacunes sont les plus grandes, offrir une formation en milieu de travail aux travailleurs de la santé actuels afin qu’ils acquièrent ces compétences pourrait être la meilleure approche pour réduire les écarts qui ont été relevés. L’utilisation continue de cette approche fondée sur les services en Zambie améliorera la capacité du pays à penser la formation, la gestion et le déploiement de ses travailleurs en santé en fonction des besoins de sa population.

Planning for what? Challenging the assumptions of health human resources planning

OBJECTIVES Health human resource planning has traditionally been based on simple models of demographic changes applied to observed levels of service utilization or provider supply. No consideration has been given to the implications of changing levels of need within populations over time. Recently, needs based resource planning models have been suggested that incorporate changes in needs for care explicitly as a determinant of health care needs. METHODS In this paper, population indicators of morbidity, mortality and self-assessed health are analyzed to determine if health care needs have changed across birth cohorts in Canada from 1994 to 2005 among older age groups. Multivariate regression analysis was used to estimate the age pattern of health by birth year with interaction terms included to examine whether the association of age with health was conditional on the birth year. RESULTS Results indicate that while the probability of mortality, mobility problems and pain rises with age, the rate of change is greater for those born earlier. The probability of self-assessed poor health increases with age but the rate of change with age is constant across birth years. CONCLUSIONS Even in the short time period covered, our analysis shows that health care needs by age are changing over time in Canada.

An Applied Simulation Model for Estimating the Supply of and Requirements for Registered Nurses Based on Population Health Needs

Aging populations, limited budgets, changing public expectations, new technologies, and the emergence of new diseases create challenges for health care systems as ways to meet needs and protect, promote, and restore health are considered. Traditional planning methods for the professionals required to provide these services have given little consideration to changes in the needs of the populations they serve or to changes in the amount/types of services offered and the way they are delivered. In the absence of dynamic planning models that simulate alternative policies and test policy mixes for their relative effectiveness, planners have tended to rely on projecting prevailing or arbitrarily determined target provider—population ratios. A simulation model has been developed that addresses each of these shortcomings by simultaneously estimating the supply of and requirements for registered nurses based on the identification and interaction of the determinants. The model’s use is illustrated using data for Nova Scotia, Canada.

Decision making for nurse staffing: Canadian perspectives.

The effectiveness of methods for determining nurse staffing is unknown. Despite a great deal of interest in Canada, efforts conducted to date indicate that there is a lack of consensus on nurse staffing decision-making processes. This study explored nurse staffing decision-making processes, supports in place for nurses, nursing workload being experienced, and perceptions of nursing care and outcomes in Canada. Substantial information was provided from participants about the nurse staffing decision-making methods currently employed in Canada including frameworks for nurse staffing, nurse-to-patient ratios, workload measurement systems, and “gut” instinct. A number of key themes emerged from the study that can form the basis for policy and practice changes related to determining appropriate workload for nursing in Canada. These include the use of (a) staffing principles and frameworks, (b) nursing workload measurement systems, (c) nurse-to-patient ratios, and (d) the need for uptake of evidence related to nurse staffing.

In place of fear: aligning health care planning with system objectives to achieve financial sustainability

The financial sustainability of publicly funded health care systems is a challenge to policymakers in many countries as health care absorbs an ever increasing share of both national wealth and government spending. New technology, aging populations and increasing public expectations of the health care system are often cited as reasons why health care systems need ever increasing funding as well as reasons why universal and comprehensive public systems are unsustainable. However, increases in health care spending are not usually linked to corresponding increases in need for care within populations. Attempts to promote financial sustainability of systems such as limiting the range of services is covered or the groups of population covered may compromise their political sustainability as some groups are left to seek private cover for some or all services. In this paper, an alternative view of financial sustainability is presented which identifies the failure of planning and management of health care to reflect needs for care in populations and to integrate planning and management functions for health care expenditure, health care services and the health care workforce. We present a Health Care Sustainability Framework based on disaggregating the health care expenditure into separate planning components. Unlike other approaches to planning health care expenditure, this framework explicitly incorporates population health needs as a determinant of health care requirements, and provides a diagnostic tool for understanding the sources of expenditure increase.

Health worker migration from South Africa: causes, consequences and policy responses

BackgroundThis paper arises from a four-country study that sought to better understand the drivers of skilled health worker migration, its consequences, and the strategies countries have employed to mitigate negative impacts. The four countries—Jamaica, India, the Philippines, and South Africa—have historically been “sources” of skilled health workers (SHWs) migrating to other countries. This paper presents the findings from South Africa.MethodsThe study began with a scoping review of the literature on health worker migration from South Africa, followed by empirical data collected from skilled health workers and stakeholders. Surveys were conducted with physicians, nurses, pharmacists, and dentists. Interviews were conducted with key informants representing educators, regulators, national and local governments, private and public sector health facilities, recruitment agencies, and professional associations and councils. Survey data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression models. Interview data were analyzed thematically.ResultsThere has been an overall decrease in out-migration of skilled health workers from South Africa since the early 2000s largely attributed to a reduced need for foreign-trained skilled health workers in destination countries, limitations on recruitment, and tighter migration rules. Low levels of worker satisfaction persist, although the Occupation Specific Dispensation (OSD) policy (2007), which increased wages for health workers, has been described as critical in retaining South African nurses. Return migration was reportedly a common occurrence. The consequences attributed to SHW migration are mixed, but shortages appear to have declined. Most promising initiatives are those designed to reinforce the South African health system and undertaken within South Africa itself.ConclusionsIn the near past, South Africa’s health worker shortages as a result of emigration were viewed as significant and harmful. Currently, domestic policies to improve health care and the health workforce including innovations such as new skilled health worker cadres and OSD policies appear to have served to decrease SHW shortages to some extent. Decreased global demand for health workers and indications that South African SHWs primarily use migratory routes for professional development suggest that health worker shortages as a result of permanent migration no longer pertains to South Africa.

A synthesis of recent analyses of human resources for health requirements and labour market dynamics in high-income OECD countries.

BackgroundRecognition of the importance of effective human resources for health (HRH) planning is evident in efforts by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Health Workforce Alliance (GHWA) to facilitate, with partner organizations, the development of a global HRH strategy for the period 2016–2030. As part of efforts to inform the development of this strategy, the aims of this study, the first of a pair, were (a) to conduct a rapid review of recent analyses of HRH requirements and labour market dynamics in high-income countries who are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and (b) to identify a methodology to determine future HRH requirements for these countries.MethodsA systematic search of peer-reviewed literature, targeted website searches, and multi-stage reference mining were conducted. To supplement these efforts, an international Advisory Group provided additional potentially relevant documents. All documents were assessed against predefined inclusion criteria and reviewed using a standardized data extraction tool.ResultsIn total, 224 documents were included in the review. The HRH supply in the included countries is generally expected to grow, but it is not clear whether that growth will be adequate to meet health care system objectives in the future. Several recurring themes regarding factors of importance in HRH planning were evident across the documents reviewed, such as aging populations and health workforces as well as changes in disease patterns, models of care delivery, scopes of practice, and technologies in health care. However, the most common HRH planning approaches found through the review do not account for most of these factors.ConclusionsThe current evidence base on HRH labour markets in high-income OECD countries, although large and growing, does not provide a clear picture of the expected future HRH situation in these countries. Rather than HRH planning methods and analyses being guided by explicit HRH policy questions, most of the reviewed studies appeared to derive HRH policy questions based on predetermined planning methods. Informed by the findings of this review, a methodology to estimate future HRH requirements for these countries is described.

Needs-based human resources for health planning in Jamaica: using simulation modelling to inform policy options for pharmacists in the public sector

BackgroundPlanning for human resources for health (HRH) is central to health systems strengthening around the world, including in the Caribbean and Jamaica. In an effort to align Jamaica’s health workforce with the changing health needs of its people, a partnership was established between Jamaican and Canadian partners. The purpose of the work described in this paper is to describe the development and application of a needs-based HRH simulation model for pharmacists in Jamaica’s largest health region.MethodsGuided by a Steering Committee of Jamaican stakeholders, a simulation modelling approach originally developed in Canada was adapted for the Jamaican context. The purpose of this approach is to promote understanding of how various factors affect the supply of and/or requirements for HRH in different scenarios, and to identify policy levers for influencing each of these under different future scenarios. This is done by integrating knowledge of different components of the health care system into a single tool that shows how changes to different parameters affect HRH supply or requirements. Data to populate the model were obtained from multiple administrative databases and key informants. Findings were validated with the Steering Committee.ResultsThe model estimated an initial shortage of 110 full-time equivalent (FTE) pharmacists in the South East Region that, without intervention, would increase to a shortage of about 150 FTEs over a 15-year period. In contrast to the relatively small impact of a large enrolment increase in Jamaica’s pharmacy training programme, interventions to increase recruitment of pharmacists to the public sector, or improve productivity - through, for example, the use of support staff and/or new technologies - may have much greater impact on reducing this shortage.ConclusionsThe model represents an improvement on the HRH planning tools previously used in Jamaica in that it supports the estimation of HRH requirements based directly on measures of population health need. Both the profession (pharmacists) and country (Jamaica) considered here are under-studied. Further investments by Jamaica’s MoH in continuing to build capacity to use such models, in combination with their efforts to enhance health information systems, will support better informed HRH planning in Jamaica.