Gareth Stansfield

The Islamic State, the Kurdistan Region and the future of Iraq: assessing UK policy options

The fall of Mosul in June of 2014 was followed in July by the establishment of a self-proclaimed Caliphate by the Islamic State of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Since then, the Islamic State has continued to expand its operations, persistently pushing into Sunni-dominated parts of Iraq and Syria, nearly defeating the Kurds of Iraq, and moving against the Kurds of Syria, in Kobani, as well as army units of the Syrian state. By doing so, it has maintained an astonishingly high tempo of operations and has shown itself capable, agile and resilient. It has also proved itself to be adept at utilizing social media outlets, and in pursuing brutal tactics against civilians and prisoners that have been aimed at shocking adversaries�potential or actual�and observers both in the region and beyond. The rise of the Islamic State poses a challenge not only to the security of Iraq and Syria, but to the state system of the Middle East. Western powers have been drawn into a conflict in a limited fashion�through air strikes and advising ground forces; the UK, while engaging slightly later than other countries against the Islamic State, has followed this pattern, though targeting Islamic State forces solely in Iraq. This article considers the nature and scale of the threat posed by the Islamic State, and assesses three possible areas of further policy engagement that they UK may, or may have to, follow.

The unravelling of the post-First World War state system? The Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the transformation of the Middle East

Ten years after regime change in Iraq, the Kurdistan Region has emerged as a transformative force in the international affairs of the Middle East. The Kurds have moved to being architects of the new Iraqi state, but have thereby forced an ideational contest between them—as visionaries of a decentralized Iraq—and successive Iraqi governments that favour a centralized authority structure. In addition to this first set of developments, the prominence of the Kurds is also explained by two additional sets of issues. The second concerns the interplay of federalism in Iraq and the management of the countrys oil and gas reserves. Kurdistans expansion of its hydrocarbons industry has been met with opposition from Baghdad that has furthered the polarization and enmity between the two sides. The third issue, which serves to make concrete the gains made by the Kurds, concerns regional geopolitical developments. For the first time in a century, the nationalist interests of the Kurds in Iraq are compatible with the sectarian interests of Turkey and Sunni Arab states. These three issues (domestic development, economic advancement and regional geopolitics) come together to explain the Kurdistan Regions agency in a rapidly transforming regional complex and raise the possibility of an independent Republic of Kurdistan emerging in the near future as an idea that is no longer regarded as impossible.

The Unintended Consequences of Upstreaming: Western Engagement in Iraq

Since 2014, Western countries have been engaged in Iraq, principally by assisting the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Kurdistan Region’s peshmerga forces in the struggle against the Islamic State. The engagement is of a far more cautious nature than before, perhaps, because of the recognition that ‘upstream’ intervention or intervention that involves working closely with local forces and dominant actors, has created downstream problems. Stansfield focuses upon the rise of the Islamic State, and ISIS before it, as being, partly, a product of Western intervention and upstream strategies, or, more accurately, the failure to see these strategies through to their conclusion. Western operations privileged short-term solutions that proved to have long-term consequences: The dissatisfaction of Sunni Arab expectations gave Islamic State the opportunity to posture itself in a social and political environment that was conducive both to its survival and to its expansion. Islamic State also adapted to Western counter-insurgency practices. Equally, Stansfield argues the strategy of working with Kurdish peshmerga and ISF to enhance security may also have downstream consequences, as Kurdish secession or the further break-up of Iraq.

The Evolution of the Political System of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

The Iraqi Kurds present an anomaly in the Middle East state system. By having built autonomous governmental structures in the 1990s and then institutionalizing them within the federal framework of the post-2003 Iraqi state, the story of the Iraqi Kurds is one which 1980s’ analysts would struggle to foresee, and one which 2000s’ analysts now speculate as to where it could lead. This chapter identifies the event, dynamics, and interactions that came together to form the Kurdistan Region of Iraq that has become an important force in the affairs of Iraq and the wider Middle East in the twenty-first century. Following the rise of the Islamic State in 2014, the ‘internal’, endogenous challenges and the exogenous constraints in the regional state system will be identified.