Gauden Galea

Priority actions for the non-communicable disease crisis

The UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in September, 2011, is an unprecedented opportunity to create a sustained global movement against premature death and preventable morbidity and disability from NCDs, mainly heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease. The increasing global crisis in NCDs is a barrier to development goals including poverty reduction, health equity, economic stability, and human security. The Lancet NCD Action Group and the NCD Alliance propose five overarching priority actions for the response to the crisis--leadership, prevention, treatment, international cooperation, and monitoring and accountability--and the delivery of five priority interventions--tobacco control, salt reduction, improved diets and physical activity, reduction in hazardous alcohol intake, and essential drugs and technologies. The priority interventions were chosen for their health effects, cost-effectiveness, low costs of implementation, and political and financial feasibility. The most urgent and immediate priority is tobacco control. We propose as a goal for 2040, a world essentially free from tobacco where less than 5% of people use tobacco. Implementation of the priority interventions, at an estimated global commitment of about US

Scaling up interventions for chronic disease prevention: the evidence

9 billion per year, will bring enormous benefits to social and economic development and to the health sector. If widely adopted, these interventions will achieve the global goal of reducing NCD death rates by 2% per year, averting tens of millions of premature deaths in this decade.

Preventing chronic diseases: taking stepwise action

Interventions to prevent morbidity and mortality from chronic diseases need to be cost effective and financially feasible in countries of low or middle income before recommendations for their scale-up can be made. We review the cost-effectiveness estimates on policy interventions (both population-based and personal) that are likely to lead to substantial reductions in chronic diseases--in particular, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease. We reviewed data from regions of low, middle, and high income, where available, as well as the evidence for making policy interventions where available effectiveness or cost-effectiveness data are lacking. The results confirm that the cost-effectiveness evidence for tobacco control measures, salt reduction, and the use of multidrug regimens for patients with high-risk cardiovascular disease strongly supports the feasibility of the scale-up of these interventions. Further assessment to determine the best national policies to achieve reductions in consumption of saturated and trans fat--chemically hydrogenated plant oils--could eventually lead to substantial reductions in cardiovascular disease. Finally, we review evidence for policy implementation in areas of strong causality or highly probable benefit--eg, changes in personal interventions for diabetes reduction, restructuring of health systems, and wider policy decisions.

Relationship of Soft Drink Consumption to Global Overweight, Obesity, and Diabetes: A Cross-National Analysis of 75 Countries

The scientific knowledge to achieve a new global goal for the prevention of chronic diseases--a 2% yearly reduction in rates of death from chronic disease over and above projected declines during the next 10 years--already exists. However, many low-income and middle-income countries must deal with the practical realities of limited resources and a double burden of infectious and chronic diseases. This paper presents a novel planning framework that can be used in these contexts: the stepwise framework for preventing chronic diseases. The framework offers a flexible and practical public health approach to assist ministries of health in balancing diverse needs and priorities while implementing evidence-based interventions such as those recommended by the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and the WHO Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health. Countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Tonga, and Vietnam have applied the stepwise planning framework: their experiences illustrate how the stepwise approach has general applicability to solving chronic disease problems without sacrificing specificity for any particular country.

The development and evaluation of a PDA-based method for public health surveillance data collection in developing countries

OBJECTIVES We estimated the relationship between soft drink consumption and obesity and diabetes worldwide. METHODS We used multivariate linear regression to estimate the association between soft drink consumption and overweight, obesity, and diabetes prevalence in 75 countries, controlling for other foods (cereals, meats, fruits and vegetables, oils, and total calories), income, urbanization, and aging. Data were obtained from the Euromonitor Global Market Information Database, the World Health Organization, and the International Diabetes Federation. Bottled water consumption, which increased with per-capita income in parallel to soft drink consumption, served as a natural control group. RESULTS Soft drink consumption increased globally from 9.5 gallons per person per year in 1997 to 11.4 gallons in 2010. A 1% rise in soft drink consumption was associated with an additional 4.8 overweight adults per 100 (adjusted B; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.1, 6.5), 2.3 obese adults per 100 (95% CI = 1.1, 3.5), and 0.3 adults with diabetes per 100 (95% CI = 0.1, 0.8). These findings remained robust in low- and middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS Soft drink consumption is significantly linked to overweight, obesity, and diabetes worldwide, including in low- and middle-income countries.

The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE EpiData and Epi Info are often used together by public health agencies around the world, particularly in developing countries, to meet their needs of low-cost public health data management; however, the current open source data management technology lacks a mobile component to meet the needs of mobile public health data collectors. The goal of this project is to explore the opportunity of filling this gap through developing and trial of a personal digital assistant (PDA) based data collection/entry system. It evaluated whether such a system could increase efficiency and reduce data transcription errors for public surveillance data collection in developing countries represented by Fiji. METHODS A generic PDA-based data collection software eSTEPS was developed. The software and the data collected using it directly interfaces with EpiData. A field trial was conducted to test the viability of public health surveillance data collection using eSTEPS. The design was a randomised, controlled trial with cross-over design. 120 participants recruited from the Fiji School of Medicine were randomly assigned to be interviewed by one of six interviewers in one of the two ways: (1) paper-based survey followed by PDA survey and (2) PDA survey followed by paper-based survey. Data quality was measured by error rates (logical range errors/inconsistencies, skip errors, missing values, date or time field errors and incorrect data type). Work flow and cost were evaluated in three stages of the survey process: (1) preparation of data collection instrument, (2) data collection and (3) data entry, validation and cleaning. User acceptance was also evaluated in the two groups of participants: (1) data collectors and (2) survey participants. RESULTS None of the errors presented in 20.8% of the paper questionnaires was found in the data set collected using PDA. Sixty-two percent of the participants perceived that the PDA-based questionnaire took less time to complete. Data entry, validation and cleaning for the PDA-based data collection from 120 participants took a total of 1.5h, a 93.26% reduction of time from 20.5h required using paper and pen. The cost is also significantly reduced with PDA-based protocol. Both data collectors and participants prefer to use PDA instead of paper for data collection. The trial results prove that eSTEPS is a feasible solution for public health surveillance data collection in the field. Several deficiencies of the software were also identified and would be addressed in the next version. CONCLUSION eSTEPS offers the potential to meet the need for an effective mobile public health data collection tool for use in the field. The eSTEPS field trial proves that PDA was more efficient than paper for public health survey data collection. It also significantly reduced errors in data entry. The later benefit was derived from the software providing its users with the flexibility of building their own constraints to control the data type, range and logic of data entry.

European Code against Cancer 4th Edition: 12 ways to reduce your cancer risk

Objective Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the biggest cause of death in Europe putting an unsustainable burden on already struggling health systems. Increases in obesity are a major cause of NCDs. This paper projects the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes and seven cancers by 2030 in 53 WHO European Region countries based on current and past body mass index (BMI) trends. It also tests the impact of obesity interventions on the future disease burden. Setting and participants Secondary data analysis of country-specific epidemiological data using a microsimulation modelling process. Interventions The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%. Primary and secondary outcome measures Quantifying the future burden of major NCDs and the impact of interventions on this future disease burden. Results By 2030 in the whole of the European region, the prevalence of diabetes, CHD and stroke and cancers was projected to reach an average of 3990, 4672 and 2046 cases/100 000, respectively. The highest prevalence of diabetes was predicted in Slovakia (10 870), CHD and stroke—in Greece (11 292) and cancers—in Finland (5615 cases/100 000). A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases. The largest reduction in diabetes and CHD and stroke was observed in Slovakia (3054 and 3369 cases/100 000, respectively), and in cancers was predicted in Germany (331/100 000). Conclusions Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs. Future research will allow real policy interventions to be tested; however, better surveillance data on NCDs and their risk factors are essential for research and policy.

Nutritional determinants of worldwide diabetes: an econometric study of food markets and diabetes prevalence in 173 countries

This overview describes the principles of the 4th edition of the European Code against Cancer and provides an introduction to the 12 recommendations to reduce cancer risk. Among the 504.6 million inhabitants of the member states of the European Union (EU28), there are annually 2.64 million new cancer cases and 1.28 million deaths from cancer. It is estimated that this cancer burden could be reduced by up to one half if scientific knowledge on causes of cancer could be translated into successful prevention. The Code is a preventive tool aimed to reduce the cancer burden by informing people how to avoid or reduce carcinogenic exposures, adopt behaviours to reduce the cancer risk, or to participate in organised intervention programmes. The Code should also form a base to guide national health policies in cancer prevention. The 12 recommendations are: not smoking or using other tobacco products; avoiding second-hand smoke; being a healthy body weight; encouraging physical activity; having a healthy diet; limiting alcohol consumption, with not drinking alcohol being better for cancer prevention; avoiding too much exposure to ultraviolet radiation; avoiding cancer-causing agents at the workplace; reducing exposure to high levels of radon; encouraging breastfeeding; limiting the use of hormone replacement therapy; participating in organised vaccination programmes against hepatitis B for newborns and human papillomavirus for girls; and participating in organised screening programmes for bowel cancer, breast cancer, and cervical cancer.

Unhealthy diets, obesity and time discounting: a systematic literature review and network analysis

OBJECTIVE Ageing and urbanization leading to sedentary lifestyles have been the major explanations proposed for a dramatic rise in diabetes worldwide and have been the variables used to predict future diabetes rates. However, a transition to Western diets has been suggested as an alternative driver. We sought to determine what socio-economic and dietary factors are the most significant population-level contributors to diabetes prevalence rates internationally. DESIGN Multivariate regression models were used to study how market sizes of major food products (sugars, cereals, vegetable oils, meats, total joules) corresponded to diabetes prevalence, incorporating lagged and cumulative effects. The underlying social determinants of food market sizes and diabetes prevalence rates were also studied, including ageing, income, urbanization, overweight prevalence and imports of foodstuffs. SETTING Data were obtained from 173 countries. SUBJECTS Population-based survey recipients were the basis for diabetes prevalence and food market data. RESULTS We found that increased income tends to increase overall food market size among low- and middle-income countries, but the level of food importation significantly shifts the content of markets such that a greater proportion of available joules is composed of sugar and related sweeteners. Sugar exposure statistically explained why urbanization and income have been correlated with diabetes rates. CONCLUSIONS Current diabetes projection methods may estimate future diabetes rates poorly if they fail to incorporate the impact of nutritional factors. Imported sugars deserve further investigation as a potential population-level driver of global diabetes.

Public–private partnerships with large corporations: Setting the ground rules for better health

There is an increasing policy commitment to address the avoidable burdens of unhealthy diet, overweight and obesity. However, to design effective policies, it is important to understand why people make unhealthy dietary choices. Research from behavioural economics suggests a critical role for time discounting, which describes how peoples value of a reward, such as better health, decreases with delay to its receipt. We systematically reviewed the literature on the relationship of time discounting with unhealthy diets, overweight and obesity in Web of Science and PubMed. We identified 41 studies that met our inclusion criteria as they examined the association between time discount rates and (i) unhealthy food consumption; (ii) overweight and (iii) response to dietary and weight loss interventions. Nineteen out of 25 cross‐sectional studies found time discount rates positively associated with overweight, obesity and unhealthy diets. Experimental studies indicated that lower time discounting was associated with greater weight loss. Findings varied by how time discount rates were measured; stronger results were observed for food than monetary‐based measurements. Network co‐citation analysis revealed a concentration of research in nutrition journals. Overall, there is moderate evidence that high time discounting is a significant risk factor for unhealthy diets, overweight and obesity and may serve as an important target for intervention.