Gavan McGrath

Climate, soil, and vegetation controls on the temporal variability of vadose zone transport

Temporal patterns of solute transport and transformation through the vadose zone are driven by the stochastic variability of water fluxes. This is determined by the hydrologic filtering of precipitation variability into infiltration, storage, drainage, and evapotranspiration. In this work we develop a framework for examining the role of the hydrologic filtering and, in particular, the effect of evapotranspiration in determining the travel time and delivery of sorbing, reacting solutes transported through the vadose zone by stochastic rainfall events. We describe a 1-D vertical model in which solute pulses are tracked as point loads transported to depth by a series of discrete infiltration events. Numerical solutions of this model compare well to the Richards equation–based HYDRUS model for some typical cases. We then utilize existing theory of the stochastic dynamics of soil water to derive analytical and semianalytical expressions for the probability density functions (pdfs) of solute travel time and delivery. The moments of these pdfs directly relate the mean and variance of expected travel times to the water balance and show how evapotranspiration tends to reduce (and make more uncertain) the mass of a degrading solute delivered to the base of the vadose zone. The framework suggests a classification of different modes hydrologic filtering depending on hydroclimatic and landscape controls. Results suggest that variability in travel times decreases with soil depth in wet climates but increases with soil depth in dry climates. In dry climates, rare large storms can be an important mechanism for leaching to groundwater.

Linking Eco-Energetics and Eco-Hydrology to Select Sites for the Assisted Colonization of Australia’s Rarest Reptile

Assisted colonization—the deliberate translocation of species from unsuitable to suitable regions—is a controversial management tool that aims to prevent the extinction of populations that are unable to migrate in response to climate change or to survive in situ. The identification of suitable translocation sites is therefore a pressing issue. Correlative species distribution models, which are based on occurrence data, are of limited use for site selection for species with historically restricted distributions. In contrast, mechanistic species distribution models hold considerable promise in selecting translocation sites. Here we integrate ecoenergetic and hydrological models to assess the longer-term suitability of the current habitat of one of the world’s rarest chelonians, the Critically Endangered Western Swamp Tortoise (Psuedemydura umbrina). Our coupled model allows us to understand the interaction between thermal and hydric constraints on the foraging window of tortoises, based on hydrological projections of its current habitat. The process can then be repeated across a range of future climates to identify regions that would fall within the tortoise’s thermodynamic niche. The predictions indicate that climate change will result in reduced hydroperiods for the tortoises. However, under some climate change scenarios, habitat suitability may remain stable or even improve due to increases in the heat budget. We discuss how our predictions can be integrated with energy budget models that can capture the consequences of these biophysical constraints on growth, reproduction and body condition.

Assessing the impact of regional rainfall variability on rapid pesticide leaching potential

The timing and magnitude of rainfall events are known to be dominant controls on pesticide migration into streams and groundwater, by triggering rapid flow processes, such as preferential flow and surface runoff. A better understanding of how regional differences in rainfall impact rapid leaching risk is required in order to match the scale at which water regulation occurs. We estimated the potential amount of rapid leaching, and the frequencies of these events in a case study of the southwest of Western Australia, for one soil type and a range of linearly sorbing, first order degrading chemicals. At the regional scale, those chemicals with moderate sorption and long half lives were the most susceptible to rapid transport within a year of application. Within the region, this susceptibility varied depending upon application time and seasonality in storm patterns. Those chemicals and areas with a high potential for rapid transport on average, also experience the greatest inter-annual variability in rapid leaching, as measured by the coefficient of variation. The timing and frequencies of rapid leaching events appeared to strongly relate to an areas relative susceptibility to rapid leaching. In the study region the results also suggested that frontal rainfall dominates rapid leaching along the western and southern coasts while convective thunderstorms play a greater role in the arid east.

A preferential flow leaching index

The experimental evidence suggests that for many chemicals surface runoff and rapid preferential flow through the shallow unsaturated zone are significant pathways for transport to streams and groundwater. The signature of this is the episodic and pulsed leaching of these chemicals. The driver for this transport is the timing and magnitude of rainfall events which trigger rapid flow and the release of solute from a source zone, located near the soil surface. Based on these considerations we develop a conceptual model capable of reproducing many of the signatures of this rapid transport. This driver-source-trigger-signature framework forms the basis of the development of a new leaching index which describes the potential for rapid solute transport by preferential flow or surface runoff. This preferential flow (PF) index is based upon soil and chemical parameters as well as the timing and magnitude of rainfall and preferential flow events. The PF index suggests that a chemicals potential to experience rapid transport increases as sorption strength increases, however, when an approximation to account for sorption kinetics is considered the PF index peaks at moderate sorption values. The model is sensitive to the timing and magnitude of rapid flow events, which may require existing data or infiltration models for their estimation.

Noise-Driven Return Statistics: Scaling and Truncation in Stochastic Storage Processes

In countless systems, subjected to variable forcing, a key question arises: how much time will a state variable spend away from a given threshold? When forcing is treated as a stochastic process, this can be addressed with first return time distributions. While many studies suggest exponential, double exponential or power laws as empirical forms, we contend that truncated power laws are natural candidates. To this end, we consider a minimal stochastic mass balance model and identify a parsimonious mechanism for the emergence of truncated power law return times. We derive boundary-independent scaling and truncation properties, which are consistent with numerical simulations, and discuss the implications and applicability of our findings.

Functional Topology of Evolving Urban Drainage Networks

We investigated the scaling and topology of engineered urban drainage networks (UDNs) in two cities, and further examined UDN evolution over decades. UDN scaling was analyzed using two power law scaling characteristics widely employed for river networks: (1) Hacks law of length (L)-area (A) [ L∝Ah] and (2) exceedance probability distribution of upstream contributing area (δ) [ P(A≥δ)∼aδ−ɛ]. For the smallest UDNs (<2 km2), length-area scales linearly (h ∼ 1), but power law scaling (h ∼ 0.6) emerges as the UDNs grow. While P(A≥δ) plots for river networks are abruptly truncated, those for UDNs display exponential tempering [ P(A≥δ)=aδ−ɛexp⁡(−cδ)]. The tempering parameter c decreases as the UDNs grow, implying that the distribution evolves in time to resemble those for river networks. However, the power law exponent ɛ for large UDNs tends to be greater than the range reported for river networks. Differences in generative processes and engineering design constraints contribute to observed differences in the evolution of UDNs and river networks, including subnet heterogeneity and nonrandom branching.We investigated the scaling and topology of engineered urban drainage networks (UDNs) in two cities, and further examined UDN evolution over decades. UDN scaling was analyzed using two power-law characteristics widely employed for river networks: (1) Hacks law of length (

A multimethod approach to inform epikarst drip discharge modelling: Implications for palaeo-climate reconstruction

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Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover

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Co-authorship analysis of the speleothem proxy-climate community: working together to tackle the big problems

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Rainfall threshold for hillslope outflow: an emergent property of flow pathway connectivity

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