Gelson Tembo

Crop Input Response Functions with Stochastic Plateaus

Agronomic research on crop response to nitrogen fertilizer suggests that a plateau function may be appropriate, but the plateau varies across fields and years. Available models that treat the plateau as a stochastic variable are not readily extendable to handle field or year random effects as seems to be appropriate based on the agronomic data. This article develops a method of estimating a response function with a stochastic plateau that can capture random effects. The method is then used to determine economically optimal levels of nitrogen fertilizer for wheat (Triticum aestivum). Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.

The effect of food insecurity on mental health: Panel evidence from rural Zambia

A growing number of studies show support for a positive association between food insecurity and poor mental health in developing countries. Few of these studies, however, explore the relationship statistically employing longitudinal data. This study combines ethnography with randomly sampled household-level panel data (two waves) collected in 2009 to examine the association between food insecurity and mental health in rural Zambia. Mental health was measured using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire and food insecurity was assessed utilizing a modified 7-item scale based on local coping strategies used during food shortages. A multilevel linear regression model was employed with repeated measures nested within individuals (N = 280 observations) living in 81 households nested within 16 villages. Regression results confirm the postulated positive association between poor mental health and food insecurity. Food insecurity during the dry season, the time of year in rural Zambia when many households are typically food secure, had a subsequent greater effect on mental health than food insecurity during the rainy season. The difference in the effect was statistically significant at the five-percent level. In a country where mental health care resources are severely lacking, policy and applied efforts aimed at improving access to key agricultural resources, thereby increasing agricultural output, could potentially produce beneficial mental health outcomes.

Household Consumption and Natural Resource Management around National Parks in Zambia

Abstract Game Management Areas in Zambia aim to combine nature conservation with economic empowerment of rural households. This study determines the impact of community-based wildlife management and participation in related community institutions on household welfare. The results indicate that the gains from living in Game Management Areas and from participating in natural resource management are large but unevenly distributed. Only Game Management Areas with limited alternative livelihoods exhibit significant consumption benefits. However, the gains accrue mainly to the relatively well off, while the poor do not gain even if they participate. The results also show that infrastructure development does not necessarily translate into household level consumption gains in the short run. The design of community-based natural resource management programmes needs to respond to the inherent diversity among both the national parks and the community members. There is a need to address impediments to effective participation by the majority of the community members.

Income Transfers and Maternal Health: Evidence from a National Randomized Social Cash Transfer Program in Zambia

There is promising recent evidence that poverty-targeted social cash transfers have potential to improve maternal health outcomes; however, questions remain surrounding design features responsible for impacts. In addition, virtually no evidence exists from the African region. This study explores the impact of Zambias Child Grant Program on a range of maternal health utilization outcomes using a randomized design and difference-in-differences multivariate regression from data collected over 24 months from 2010 to 2012. Results indicate that while there are no measurable program impacts among the main sample, there are heterogeneous impacts on skilled attendance at birth among a sample of women residing in households having better access to maternal health services. The latter result is particularly interesting because of the overall low level of health care availability in program areas suggesting that dedicated program design or matching supply-side interventions may be necessary to leverage unconditional cash transfers in similar settings to impact maternal health.

The Social and Productive Impacts of Zambia's Child Grant.

Accumulated evidence from dozens of cash transfer programs across the world suggest that there are few interventions that can match the range of impacts and cost-effectiveness of a small, predictable monetary transfer to poor families in developing countries. However, individual published impact assessments typically focus on only one program and one outcome. This article presents two-year impacts of the Zambian Governments Child Grant, an unconditional cash transfer to families with children under age five, across a wide range of domains including consumption, productive activity and women and childrens outcomes, making this one of the first studies to assess both protective and productive impacts of a national unconditional cash transfer program. We show strong impacts on consumption, food security, savings and productive activity. However, impacts in areas such as child nutritional status and schooling depend on initial conditions of the household, suggesting that cash alone is not enough to solve all constraints faced by these poor, rural households. Nevertheless, the apparent transformative effects of this program suggest that unconditional transfers in very poor settings can contribute to both protection and development outcomes.

The impact of Zambia’s unconditional child grant on schooling and work: results from a large-scale social experiment

ABSTRACT This article reports on the impact on child schooling and work of the Government of Zambia’s Child Grant Program (CGP), an unconditional cash transfer programme targeted to households with children under age 3 years in three districts of the country. Although the CGP’s focus is on very young children, we look to see if the programme has impacts on older children who are not the explicit target group. We use data from a large-scale social experiment involving 2519 households, half of whom were randomised out to a delayed-entry control group, that was implemented to assess the impact of the programme. We find that the CGP has no discernible impact on school enrolment of children age 7–14. However, when we break the sample by older (11–14) and younger (7–10) children – based on the grade structure of the Zambian schooling system – we find a significant impact among children age 11–14, which coincides with the exact age range where a sharp drop-out begins to occur in Zambia with point estimates in the range of 7–8 percentage points. Finally, we provide evidence on the potential pathways through which the unconditional cash transfer impacts on enrolment. Households in the CGP spend more on education, and in particular on uniforms and shoes, two items cited as key barriers to school enrolment in study areas.

Rural household participation in markets for non-timber forest products in Zambia

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) support livelihoods in rural communities through provision of food, fuel, materials, medicines and income from sales. We estimated the contribution of NTFPs to rural household income in Zambia, and used a two-stage tobit alternative model to identify the factors associated with participation in NTFP markets. NTFPs accounted for 35 per cent of household income for participating households, second only to trading. Human capital variables and the value of assets were found to be significant determinants of both participation in business activities related to NTFPs and the associated household income, and the poor were more dependent on NTFPs than wealthier households. The effect of average rainfall underscores the role that NTFPs play in providing a safety net during periods of low crop yields. Rural development policies should recognize the role played by NTFPs in rural livelihoods and the need to balance welfare improvement and sustainable forest management.

Does adoption of conservation farming practices result in increased crop revenue? Evidence from Zambia

ABSTRACT We determine the impacts of conservation farming (CF) practices on crop net revenue of smallholder farm households using nationally representative household and plot survey data in Zambia. We estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of farm household’s choice of combinations of CF practices and their impacts on crop net revenue. Four primary results are found. First, several factors affect adoption of CF practices depending on the combinations in which they are adopted. Second, all CF practices significantly increase crop net revenue per hectare when practised either singly or jointly. Third, a joint adoption of crop residue retention and minimum soil disturbance yields the highest crop net revenue per hectare among all the possible combinations of CF practices. Thus a more comprehensive approach that focuses on joint adoption of all CF practices is not the best income yielding portfolio. Fourth, adoption of CF practices in combination generally results in more crop net revenue per hectare than adopting them in isolation. Therefore, results point towards the need for promotion of adoption of CF practices in combination while considering the influence from household, seed, plot level, agro-ecological, and miscellaneous factors to enable farmers in Zambia to realise most payoffs.

Can unconditional cash transfers raise long-term living standards? Evidence from Zambia

In Africa, state-sponsored cash transfer programs now reach nearly 50 million people. Do these programs raise long-term living standards? We examine this question using experimental data from two unconditional cash transfer programs implemented by the Zambian Government. We find far-reaching effects of the programs both on food security and consumption as well as on a range of productive outcomes. After three years, household spending is on average 67 percent larger than the value of the transfer received, implying a sizeable multiplier effect, which works through increased non-farm activity and agricultural production.

Does money buy happiness? Evidence from an unconditional cash transfer in Zambia

The relationship between happiness and income has been at the center of a vibrant debate, with both intrinsic and instrumental importance, as emotional states are an important determinant of health and social behavior. We investigate whether a government-run unconditional cash transfer paid directly to women in poor households had an impact on self-reported happiness. The evaluation was designed as a cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Zambia across 90 communities. The program led to a 7.5 to 10 percentage point impact on women’s happiness after 36- and 48-months, respectively (or 0.19–0.25 standard deviations over the control group mean). In addition, women have higher overall satisfaction regarding their young children’s well-being, including indicators of satisfaction with their children’s health and positive outlook on their children’s future. Complementary analysis suggests that self-assessed relative poverty (as measured by comparison to other households in the community) is a more important mediator of program effects on happiness than absolute poverty (as measured by household consumption expenditures). Although typically not the focus of such evaluations, impacts on psychosocial indicators, including happiness, should not be discounted as important outcomes, as they capture different, non-material, holistic aspects of an individual’s overall level of well-being.