Georg Erdmann

Future economics of the fuel cell housing market

Abstract This paper examines how a market of small-scale stationary fuel cells of up to 20 kW could look like, if, costs of stationary fuel cell systems allow market entry. This paper analyses what the market potential for this technology would be, what types of residential buildings might be most attractive, and what would be the quantitative changes in the fuel and the power market. Finally, does the perspective of stationary fuel cells offer a business opportunity for power and gas distribution companies? The methodology of this paper differs from that of other studies in that we model the operation of stationary fuel cells on the basis of 15 min power load profiles of individual buildings. From these we draw synthetic functions describing the fuel cell power output/natural gas input, as a function of a number of specific properties of individual buildings. We then develop a statistical distribution of these properties of the residential building stock in Germany (15 million units), finally using a Monte Carlo simulation the relevant market shares are calculated. The methodology that is developed here has an advantage in that it is flexible and can be applied for different population of buildings. We know, for example, that the results would differ between rural and urban areas. The model may reflect these differences thus allowing deeper insights into future fuel cell housing markets.

Optimisation of hybrid off-grid energy systems by linear programming

BackgroundIn this study, a general model of a hybrid off-grid energy system is developed, which can be adjusted to reflect real conditions in order to achieve economical and ecological optimisation of off-grid energy systems.MethodsUsing linear programming methods in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) environment, the optimal configuration of the electrical power supply system following characteristic restrictions as well as hourly weather and demand data is found. From this model, the optimal mix of solar- and wind-based power generators combined with storage devices and a diesel generator set is formed.ResultsThe operation of this model was tested in two real off-grid energy systems, a cluster of villages in India and Titumate in Colombia. Both optimisation processes resulted in hybrid energy systems, utilising photovoltaics (PV), lead-acid batteries and a diesel generator as a load-balancing facility.ConclusionsWith respect to small off-grid energy systems, it was found that renewable energy in combination with electrical storage devices help to reduce the cost of energy compared to stand-alone diesel generator sets. The optimal solutions strongly depend on the particular load demand curve. As both PV and wind energy benefit from energy storage, the costs of the battery can be shared and the two technologies complement each other. Finally, although the optimised capacity of the diesel generator remains nearly constant, its contribution to the total power generation is being substituted by renewable energy sources, which serve as fuel-saving technologies.

Evolutionary Economics as an Approach to Environmental Problems

According to the economic assessment of environmental problems, drawn from the predominant neoclassical theory, the most efficient strategy to improve the environment would be the application of so-called market approaches. Because the environment is economically a public good, this strategy requires the introduction of some environmental taxes (Pigou tax) or tradable pollution certificates. If the tax rate is fixed according to the marginal abatement costs, or if the number of pollution certificates corresponds to the socially optimal emission standard, these instruments allow the economy to be pushed to its stationary Pareto-efficient equilibrium, which is characterized by smaller markets for environmentally harmful goods and larger markets for environmentally favorable goods, as shown in Figure 1.

Uranium and Nuclear Energy

The peaceful use of nuclear energy began in the 1950s with the assumption that it would make electricity abundantly available at low cost. However, mistrust of this energy technology has been salient from its beginnings. After the nuclear catastrophe of 1986 in Chernobyl, Ukraine, public acceptance of nuclear energy plummeted in industrial countries even though the Chernobyl reactor was of a very different design from those common in Western models. The following issues are addressed in this chapter:

Emissionsgesetzgebung und alternative Automobilantriebe in Kalifornien

Der kalifornischen Emissionsgesetzgebung, insbesondere dem California Low Emission Vehicle Program des Jahres 1990, fallt die Schrittmacherfunktion bei der okologischen Verbesserung der Fahrzeug- und Betankungstechnik zu. Im Rahmen eines Projekts am Institut fur Energietechnik der TU Berlin, welches die alternativen Fahrzeugantriebe einer okonomischen Systemanalyse unterzieht, konnte der aktuelle Stand im Vollzug und der Umsetzung des kalifornischen Luftreinhaltungsprogramms vor Ort beobachtet werden. Die dabei gewonnenen Erkenntnisse werden hier aufgezeigt.

Cross Border Impacts of Renewable Energy Sources in Central Western Europe

Alongside the remarkable deployment of renewable energy sources for electricity in Europe the power markets are growing together. An analysis focusing not only on domestic but also on cross border impacts is therefore of interest. We consider the interaction between the electricity markets of France, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium (Central Western Europe region or CWE) which are technically and economically closely connected. More precisely, we study the international impacts of renewable energy sources for electricity and quantify possible spillover effects on prices. We choose two different approaches to tackle the question: A toy model infers causal relationships and an econometric time series analysis with high frequency data quantifies the effects of interest. With rising renewable electricity production from wind and solar in different market areas, challenges in analysis arising from multicollinearities become more pronounced and are addressed. We find that renewable energy sources in one region indeed have a depressing impact on prices of bordering bidding zones even in countries which do not have direct physical interconnections. This effect is quantified in monetary units for the years between 2012 and 2015. The influence of German renewable energy sources over one year on the Netherlands, Belgium and France is of the same order of magnitude than the influence of the corresponding domestic renewables on the respective domestic markets.

Bottom-Up Analysis of Energy Demand

Traditionally, energy economics has dealt with energy supply rather than demand. In contrast, this book gives demand precedence over supply, in keeping with the rule that without a minimum demand, supply does not come forth. Energy demand is often discussed in relation to the question of how to achieve ‘energy savings’, a term devoid of meaning without some prior knowledge of the factors affecting energy demand. These factors importantly derive from the profit-seeking actions of business managers and utility-oriented actions of consumers.

Markets for Liquid Fuels

This chapter focuses on markets for crude oil and oil products including gasoline, kerosene, diesel, heating oil, as well as biogenic fuels such as biodiesel, bioethanol, and synthetic fuels. Since the mid-twentieth century, crude oil has been the world’s most important energy source. However, the future prospects of crude oil are more unclear than ever. A lot of issues have to be analyzed: What is the development of oil extraction? What technical and economic consequences are to be expected if conventional crude oil extraction falls short of the demand for liquid fuels? What about the so-called peak oil hypothesis from an economic perspective? At what oil prices would alternative fuels, such as unconventional oils, biogenic fuels, and liquefied coal become competitive? How can the structure of the oil industry be explained in economic terms? What is the role of governments in exporting and importing countries? What are the influences on the price of oil in the short, medium, and long term? What is the relationship between spot and future prices? To what extent are oil prices influenced by speculation?

Markets for Gaseous Fuels

This chapter discusses markets for natural gas, biogas, and hydrogen. While the markets for biogas and hydrogen are still in their infancy, natural gas ranks third globally among primary energy sources (after crude oil and hard coal). One of its advantages are technologies with high fuel efficiencies which release relatively little carbon dioxide (CO2). Another advantage is the fact that existing infrastructure can be used for distributing gas from new, unconventional reserves. On the other hand, its transportation calls for a capital-intensive and geographically inflexible network of pipelines which cannot be used for other purposes and is therefore factor-specific . This raises several questions concerning the properties of natural gas markets: Are pipeline investments economically viable without long-term contracts? Can market liquidity for gas be achieved without abolishing long-term contracts? How can supply be secured in the absence of long-term contracts? Is vertical integration along the value chain economically beneficial or not? Can liquid natural gas (LNG) play the role of a game changer, making consuming countries less dependent on suppliers with monopoly power and political clout?

Top-Down Analysis of Energy Demand

The practical use of bottom-up models for analyzing energy demand is faced with significant micro-data requirements. In order to keep such models manageable, the individual components of energy demand are usually linked to the same macroeconomic variables such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), per-capita income, and relative energy prices. This gives rise to the question, “Why not model energy demand directly as a function of these macro variables?”. This macro approach is presented in this chapter, exploring the role of population growth, economic growth, and in particular changes in relative prices. However, this approach raises issues of its own: How does one differentiate between short-term and long-term adjustments of demand? Do rising and declining prices have the same effect on energy demand? How can the effects of technological change be isolated from the effects of changes in energy prices? Is the relationship between energy and other production inputs, in particular capital, substitutive or complementary?