George Molina

Estimate of the global volume of surgery in 2012: an assessment supporting improved health outcomes.

BACKGROUND It was previously estimated that 234·2 million operations were performed worldwide in 2004. The association between surgical rates and population health outcomes is not clear. We re-estimated global surgical volume to track changes over time and assess rates associated with healthy populations. METHODS We gathered demographic, health, and economic data for 194 WHO member states. Surgical volumes were obtained from published studies and other reports from 2005 onwards. We estimated rates of surgery for all countries without available data based on health expenditure in 2012 and assessed the proportion of surgery comprised by caesarean delivery. The rate of surgery was plotted against life expectancy to describe the association between surgical care and this health indicator. FINDINGS We identified 66 countries reporting surgical data between 2005 and 2013. We estimate that 312·9 million operations (95% CI 266·2-359·5) took place in 2012-a 33·6% increase over 8 years; the largest proportional increase occurred in countries spending US

Global access to surgical care: a modelling study

400 or less per capita on health care. Caesarean delivery comprised 29·8% (5·8 million operations) of the total surgical volume in poor health expenditure countries compared with 10·8% (7·8 million operations) in low health expenditure countries and 2·7% (5·1 million operations) in high health expenditure countries. We noted a correlation between increased life expectancy and increased surgical rates up to 1533 operations per 100 000 people, with significant but less dramatic improvement above this rate. INTERPRETATION Surgical volume is large and continues to grow in all economic environments. A single procedure-caesarean delivery-comprised almost a third of surgical volume in the most resource-limited settings. Surgical care is an essential part of health care and is associated with increased life expectancy, yet many low-income countries fail to achieve basic levels of service. Improvements in capacity and delivery of surgical services must be a major component of health system strengthening. FUNDING None.

Size and distribution of the global volume of surgery in 2012

BACKGROUND More than 2 billion people are unable to receive surgical care based on operating theatre density alone. The vision of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery is universal access to safe, affordable surgical and anaesthesia care when needed. We aimed to estimate the number of individuals worldwide without access to surgical services as defined by the Commissions vision. METHODS We modelled access to surgical services in 196 countries with respect to four dimensions: timeliness, surgical capacity, safety, and affordability. We built a chance tree for each country to model the probability of surgical access with respect to each dimension, and from this we constructed a statistical model to estimate the proportion of the population in each country that does not have access to surgical services. We accounted for uncertainty with one-way sensitivity analyses, multiple imputation for missing data, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. FINDINGS At least 4·8 billion people (95% posterior credible interval 4·6-5·0 [67%, 64-70]) of the worlds population do not have access to surgery. The proportion of the population without access varied widely when stratified by epidemiological region: greater than 95% of the population in south Asia and central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to care, whereas less than 5% of the population in Australasia, high-income North America, and western Europe lack access. INTERPRETATION Most of the worlds population does not have access to surgical care, and access is inequitably distributed. The near absence of access in many low-income and middle-income countries represents a crisis, and as the global health community continues to support the advancement of universal health coverage, increasing access to surgical services will play a central role in ensuring health care for all. FUNDING None.

Mortality Trends After a Voluntary Checklist-based Surgical Safety Collaborative

Abstract Objective To estimate global surgical volume in 2012 and compare it with estimates from 2004. Methods For the 194 Member States of the World Health Organization, we searched PubMed for studies and contacted key informants for reports on surgical volumes between 2005 and 2012. We obtained data on population and total health expenditure per capita for 2012 and categorized Member States as very-low, low, middle and high expenditure. Data on caesarean delivery were obtained from validated statistical reports. For Member States without recorded surgical data, we estimated volumes by multiple imputation using data on total health expenditure. We estimated caesarean deliveries as a proportion of all surgery. Findings We identified 66 Member States reporting surgical data. We estimated that 312.9 million operations (95% confidence interval, CI: 266.2–359.5) took place in 2012, an increase from the 2004 estimate of 226.4 million operations. Only 6.3% (95% CI: 1.7–22.9) and 23.1% (95% CI: 14.8–36.7) of operations took place in very-low- and low-expenditure Member States representing 36.8% (2573 million people) and 34.2% (2393 million people) of the global population of 7001 million people, respectively. Caesarean deliveries comprised 29.6% (5.8/19.6 million operations; 95% CI: 9.7–91.7) of the total surgical volume in very-low-expenditure Member States, but only 2.7% (5.1/187.0 million operations; 95% CI: 2.2–3.4) in high-expenditure Member States. Conclusion Surgical volume is large and growing, with caesarean delivery comprising nearly a third of operations in most resource-poor settings. Nonetheless, there remains disparity in the provision of surgical services globally.

Avoidable maternal and neonatal deaths associated with improving access to caesarean delivery in countries with low caesarean delivery rates: an ecological modelling analysis

Objective: To determine whether completion of a voluntary, checklist-based surgical quality improvement program is associated with reduced 30-day postoperative mortality. Background: Despite evidence of efficacy of team-based surgical safety checklists in improving perioperative outcomes in research trials, effective methods of population-based implementation have been lacking. The Safe Surgery 2015 South Carolina program was designed to foster state-wide engagement of hospitals in a voluntary, collaborative implementation of a checklist program. Methods: We compared postoperative mortality rates after inpatient surgery in South Carolina utilizing state-wide all-payer discharge claims from 2008 to 2013, linked with state vital statistics, stratifying hospitals on the basis of completion of the checklist program. Changes in risk-adjusted 30-day mortality were compared between hospitals, using propensity score-adjusted difference-in-differences analysis. Results: Fourteen hospitals completed the program by December 2013. Before program launch, there was no difference in mortality trends between the completion cohort and all others (P = 0.33), but postoperative mortality diverged thereafter (P = 0.021). Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality among completers was 3.38% in 2010 and 2.84% in 2013 (P < 0.00001), whereas mortality among other hospitals (n = 44) was 3.50% in 2010 and 3.71% in 2013 (P = 0.3281), reflecting a 22% difference between the groups on difference-in-differences analysis (P = 0.0021). Conclusions: Despite similar pre-existing rates and trends of postoperative mortality, hospitals in South Carolina completing a voluntary checklist-based surgical quality improvement program had a reduction in deaths after inpatient surgery over the first 3 years of the collaborative compared with other hospitals in the state. This may indicate that effective large-scale implementation of a team-based surgical safety checklist is feasible.

Preoperative radiation therapy combined with radical surgical resection is associated with a lower rate of local recurrence when treating unifocal, primary retroperitoneal liposarcoma.

BACKGROUND Reducing maternal and neonatal deaths are important global health priorities. We have previously shown that up to a country-level caesarean delivery rate (CDRs) of roughly 19·0%, cesarean delivery rates and maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) were inversely correlated. We investigated the absolute reductions in maternal and neonatal deaths if countries with low CDR increased their rates to a range of greater than 7·2% but less than or equal to 19·1%. METHODS We calculated maternal and neonatal deaths in 2013 and 2012, respectively, for countries with CDR 7·2% or less (N=45) with available data from the World Bank Development Indicators. We modelled the expected reduction in deaths in these countries if they had the 25th and 75th MMR and NMR percentiles observed for countries (N=48) with CDRs ranging from greater than 7·2% but less than or equal to 19·1%. This model assumes that if countries with low CDRs increased their rates of caesarean delivery to greater than 7·2% but less than or equal to 19·1%, they would achieve levels of MMR and NMR observed in countries with those CDRs. FINDINGS We estimate 176 078 (95% CI 163 258-188 898) maternal and 1 117 257 (95% CI 1 033 611-1 200 902) neonatal deaths occurred in 45 countries with low CDRs in 2013 and 2012, respectively. If these countries had the 25th and 75th MMR and NMR percentiles (MMR, IQR 36-190; NMR, 9-24) observed in countries (N=48) with a CDR ranging from greater than 7·2% but less than or equal to 19·1%, there would be a potential reduction of 109 762-163 513 and 279 584-803 129 maternal and neonatal deaths, respectively. INTERPRETATION Increasing caesarean delivery in countries with low CDRs could avert as many as 163 513 maternal deaths and 803 129 neonatal deaths annually. These findings assume that as health systems develop the capacity to deliver surgical care, there is a concurrent improvement in the quality of care and in the ability to rescue women and neonates who would otherwise die. Improving access to safe caesarean delivery should be a central focus in surgical care globally. FUNDING None.

Proposed minimum rates of surgery to support desirable health outcomes: an observational study based on four strategies

Local recurrence (LR) is the primary cause of death in patients with retroperitoneal liposarcoma (RP‐LPS). The purpose of this study was to evaluate if the addition of preoperative radiation therapy (XRT) to radical resection for RP‐LPS at a single institution was associated with improved LR.

Projections to achieve minimum surgical rate threshold: an observational study.

BACKGROUND The global volume of surgery in 2012 is estimated at 312·9 million operations per year, but rates of surgery vary substantially. Maternal health advocates proposed minimum caesarean delivery rates for benchmarking and to improve perinatal outcomes; however, this has not been done for surgery because the association between rates of surgical care provision as a whole and population health outcomes have not been well described. We use available data to estimate minimum rates of surgery that are associated with important health indicators. METHODS We defined surgical operations as procedures done in operating theatres that need general or regional anaesthesia or profound sedation to control pain. We used four strategies to identify rates of surgery based on estimated rates of surgery per country for 2012 associated with life expectancy of 74-75 years; estimated rates of surgery associated with a maternal mortality ratio of less than or equal to 100 per 100 000 live births; estimated minimum need for surgery in the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions based on the prevalence of disorders; and surgical rates from the so-called 4C countries (Chile, China, Costa Rica, and Cuba) identified in The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery as exemplary for their achievement of high health status, despite resource limitations. FINDINGS Based on 2012 national surgical rates, countries with reported life expectancy of 74-75 years (n=17) had a median surgical rate of 4392 (IQR 2897-4873) operations per 100 000 population annually. The median surgical rate associated with maternal mortality ratio lower than 100 (n=109) is 5028 (IQR 4139-6778) operations per 100 000 population annually. The median surgical rate estimated for all 21 GBD regions was 4669 (IQR 4339-5291) operations per 100 000 population annually. The 4C countries had a mean surgical rate of 4344 (95% CI 2620-6068) operations per 100 000 population annually. 13 of the 21 GBD regions, accounting for 78% of the worlds population, do not achieve the lowest end of the surgical rate range. INTERPRETATION We identified a surprisingly narrow range of surgical rates associated with important health indicators. This target range can be used for benchmarking of surgical services, and as part of a policy aimed at strengthening health-care systems and surgical capacity. FUNDING None.

Perception of Safety of Surgical Practice Among Operating Room Personnel From Survey Data Is Associated With All-cause 30-day Postoperative Death Rate in South Carolina

BACKGROUND Recent work has indicated an increase in surgical services, especially in resource poor settings. However, the rate of growth is poorly understood and likely insufficient to meet public health needs. We previously identified a range of 4344 to 5028 operations per 100 000 population annually to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population. We evaluate rates of growth in surgery and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. METHODS We aggregated 2004 and 2012 country-level surgical rate estimates into the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size and estimate rate of growth between these years. We then extrapolated the time it will take to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population based on linear rates of change. FINDINGS All but two regions (central Europe and southern Latin America) experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years; the fastest growth occurred in regions with the lowest surgical rates. 14 regions representing 79% of the worlds population (5·5 billion people) did not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity grows at current rates, seven regions (central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, north Africa and middle east, south Asia, southeast Asia, and western sub-Saharan Africa) will not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold by 2035; Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach this level until 2124. INTERPRETATION The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable, but the largest growth rates were noted in the poorest regions. Although this study does not address the quality of care, and rates of surgery are unlikely to change linearly, this exercise is useful to project how many years it could take regions to reach specific surgical rates. At current rates of growth, 4·9 billion people (70% of the worlds population) will still be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgery in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met as part of integrated health system development. FUNDING None.

Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is associated with an increased exposure to ionizing radiation

Objective: To evaluate whether the perception of safety of surgical practice among operating room (OR) personnel is associated with hospital-level 30-day postoperative death. Background: The relationship between improvements in the safety of surgical practice and benefits to postoperative outcomes has not been demonstrated empirically. Methods: As part of the Safe Surgery 2015: South Carolina initiative, a baseline survey measuring the perception of safety of surgical practice among OR personnel was completed. We evaluated the relationship between hospital-level mean item survey scores and rates of all-cause 30-day postoperative death using binomial regression. Models were controlled for multiple patient, hospital, and procedure covariates using supervised principal components regression. Results: The overall survey response rate was 38.1% (1793/4707) among 31 hospitals. For every 1 point increase in the hospital-level mean score for respect [adjusted relative risk (aRR) 0.78, 95% CI 0.65–0.93, P = 0.0059], clinical leadership (aRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74–0.9932, P = 0.0401), and assertiveness (aRR 0.71, 95% CI 0.54–0.93, P = 0.01) among all survey respondents, there were associated decreases in the hospital-level 30-day postoperative death rate after inpatient surgery ranging from 14% to 29%. Higher hospital-level mean scores for the statement, “I would feel safe being treated here as a patient,” were associated with significantly lower hospital-level 30-day postoperative death rates (aRR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70–0.97, P = 0.02). Although most findings seen among all OR personnel were seen among nurses, they were often absent among surgeons. Conclusions: Perception of OR safety of surgical practice was associated with hospital-level 30-day postoperative death rates.