George Muller

A pandemic influenza modeling and visualization tool

Abstract The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza outlines a plan for community response to a potential pandemic. In this outline, state and local communities are charged with enhancing their preparedness. In order to help public health officials better understand these charges, we have developed a visual analytics toolkit (PanViz) for analyzing the effect of decision measures implemented during a simulated pandemic influenza scenario. Spread vectors based on the point of origin and distance traveled over time are calculated and the factors of age distribution and population density are taken into effect. Healthcare officials are able to explore the effects of the pandemic on the population through a geographical spatiotemporal view, moving forward and backward through time and inserting decision points at various days to determine the impact. Linked statistical displays are also shown, providing county level summaries of data in terms of the number of sick, hospitalized and dead as a result of the outbreak. Currently, this tool has been deployed in Indiana State Department of Health planning and preparedness exercises, and as an educational tool for demonstrating the impact of social distancing strategies during the recent H1N1 (swine flu) outbreak.

U.S. airport entry screening in response to pandemic influenza: modeling and analysis.

Summary Background A stochastic discrete event simulation model was developed to assess the effectiveness of passenger screening for Pandemic Influenza (PI) at U.S. airport foreign entry. Methods International passengers arriving at 18 U.S. airports from Asia, Europe, South America, and Canada were assigned to one of three states: not infected, infected with PI, infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers passed through layered screening then exited the model. 80% screening effectiveness was assumed for symptomatic passengers; 6% asymptomatic passengers. Results In the first 100 days of a global pandemic, U.S. airport screening would evaluate over 17M passengers with 800K secondary screenings. 11,570 PI infected passengers (majority asymptomatic) would enter the U.S. undetected from all 18 airports. Foreign airport departure screening significantly decreased the false negative (infected/undetected) passengers. U.S. attack rates: no screening (26.9%–30.9%); screening (26.4%–30.6%); however airport screening results in 800K–1.8M less U.S. PI cases; 16K–35K less deaths (2% fatality rate). Antiviral medications for travel contact prophylaxis (10 contacts/PI passenger) were high – 8.8M. False positives from all 18 airports: 100–200/day. Conclusions Foreign shore exit screening greatly reduces numbers of PI infected passengers. U.S. airport screening identifies 50% infected individuals; efficacy is limited by the asymptomatic PI infected. Screening will not significantly delay arrival of PI via international air transport, but will reduce the rate of new US cases and subsequent deaths.

Fuzzy Architecture Assessment for Critical Infrastructure Resilience

This paper presents an approach for the selection of alternative architectures in a connected infrastructure system to increase resilience of the overall infrastructure system. The paper begins with a description of resilience and critical infrastructure, then summarizes existing approaches to resilience, and presents a fuzzy-rule based method of selecting among alternative infrastructure architectures. This methodology includes considerations which are most important when deciding on an approach to resilience. The paper concludes with a proposed approach which builds on existing resilience architecting methods by integrating key system aspects using fuzzy memberships and fuzzy rule sets. This novel approach aids the systems architect in considering resilience for the evaluation of architectures for adoption into the final system architecture.

Cyber/physical security vulnerability assessment integration

Securing high value and critical assets is one of the biggest challenges facing this nation and others around the world. In modern integrated systems, there are four potential modes of attack available to an adversary: 1 physical only attack, 2 cyber only attack, 3 physical-enabled cyber attack, 4 cyber-enabled physical attack. Blended attacks involve an adversary working in one domain to reduce system effectiveness in another domain. This enables the attacker to penetrate further into the overall layered defenses. Existing vulnerability assessment (VA) processes and software tools which predict facility vulnerabilities typically evaluate the physical and cyber domains separately. Vulnerabilities which result from the integration of cyber-physical control systems are not well characterized and are often overlooked by existing assessment approaches. In this paper, we modified modification of the timely detection methodology, used for decades in physical security VAs, to include cyber components. The Physical and Cyber Risk Analysis Tool (PACRAT) prototype illustrates an integrated vulnerability assessment that includes cyber-physical interdependencies. Information about facility layout, network topology, and emplaced safeguards is used to evaluate how well suited a facility is to detect, delay, and respond to attacks, to identify the pathways most vulnerable to attack, and to evaluate how often safeguards are compromised for a given threat or adversary type. We have tested the PACRAT prototype on critical infrastructure facilities and the results are promising. Future work includes extending the model to prescribe the recommended security improvements via an automated cost-benefit analysis.

Using Discrete Event Simulation to Model Attacker Interactions with Cyber and Physical Security Systems

Abstract The number of connections between physical and cyber security systems is rapidly increasing due to centralized control from automated and remotely connected means. As the number of interfaces between systems continues to grow, the interactions and interdependencies between them cannot be ignored. Historically, physical and cyber vulnerability assessments have been performed independently. This independent evaluation omits important aspects of the integrated system, where the impacts resulting from malicious or opportunistic attacks are not easily known or understood. We describe a discrete event simulation model that uses information about integrated physical and cyber security systems, attacker characteristics and simple response rules to identify key safeguards that limit an attackers likelihood of success. Key features of the proposed model include comprehensive data generation to support a variety of sophisticated analyses, and full parameterization of safeguard performance characteristics and attacker behaviours to evaluate a range of scenarios. We also describe the core data requirements and the network of networks that serves as the underlying simulation structure.

Simulation for a coevolved system-of-systems meta-architecture

The increasing complexity of modern systems poses challenges for understanding how these systems can be designed to best operate. Uncertainties in the operating environment and coevolution contribute to such complexity. This paper describes the simulation of a counter-trafficking system-of-systems that has undergone competitive coevolution. A notional future meta-architecture, consisting of manned and unmanned air and maritime systems, is also presented. The logic driving the model is summarized, and preliminary results are presented. The results identify driving factors of system performance, highlighting those outside the direct control of system designers or operators. These results help systems engineers better plan future system-of-system capabilities.

Outside the continental United States international travel and contagion impact quick look tool

This paper describes a tool that will allow public health analysts to estimate infectious disease risk at the country level as a function of different international transportation modes. The prototype focuses on a cholera epidemic originating within Latin America or the Caribbean, but it can be expanded to consider other pathogens as well. This effort leverages previous work in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop the International Travel to Community Impact (IT-CI) model, which analyzes and assesses potential international disease outbreaks then estimates the associated impacts to U.S. communities and the nation as a whole and orient it for use Outside the Continental United States (OCONUS). For brevity, we refer to this refined model as OIT-CI. First, we developed an operationalized meta-population spatial cholera model for Latin America and the Caribbean at the secondary administrative-level boundary. Secondly, we developed a robust function of human airline critical to approximating mixing patterns in the meta-population model. In the prototype version currently presented here, OIT-CI models a cholera epidemic originating in a Latin American or Caribbean country and spreading via airline transportation routes. Disease spread is modeled at the country level using a patch model with a connectivity function based on demographic, geospatial, and human transportation data. We have also identified data to estimate the water and health-related infrastructure capabilities of each country to include this potential impact on disease transmission. OIT-CI utilizes these data and modeling constructs to estimate the cholera risk, as a function of attack rate, for each country consistent [1]. This estimation will be completed by providing an order of magnitude risk estimate (e.g., 1 percent, 10 percent, 50 percent, 100 percent) for a cholera outbreak originating within and spreading to Latin American and Caribbean countries at secondary level boundaries (i.e., states or administrative districts). To create a product that is both useful and desirable, feedback from end users of OIT-CI will be incorporated into the model software and visualization design.

Second Line of Defense Master Spares Catalog

This catalog is intended to be a comprehensive listing of repair parts, components, kits, and consumable items used on the equipment deployed at SLD sites worldwide. The catalog covers detection, CAS, network, ancillary equipment, and tools. The catalog is backed by a Master Parts Database which is used to generate the standard report views of the catalog. The master parts database is a relational database containing a record for every part in the master parts catalog along with supporting tables for normalizing fields in the records. The database also includes supporting queries, database maintenance forms, and reports.

Second Line of Defense Spares Program Assessment

The Office of the Second Line of Defense (SLD) is part of the Department of Energy‘s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The SLD Program accomplishes its critical global security mission by forming cooperative relationships with partner countries to install passive radiation detection systems that augment traditional inspection and law enforcement measures by alerting border officials to the presence of special nuclear or other radiological materials in cross-border traffic. An important tenet of the program is to work collaboratively with these countries to establish the necessary processes, procedures, infrastructure and conditions that will enable them to fully assume the financial and technical responsibilities for operating the equipment. As the number of operational deployments grows, the SLD Program faces an increasingly complex logistics process to promote the timely and efficient supply of spare parts.

Second Line of Defense Spares Program

During Fiscal Year 2012, a team from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted an assessment and analysis of the Second Line of Defense (SLD) Sustainability spare parts program. Spare parts management touches many aspects of the SLD Sustainability Program including contracting and integration of Local Maintenance Providers (LMP), equipment vendors, analyses and metrics on program performance, system state of health, and maintenance practices. Standardized spares management will provide better data for decisions during site transition phase and will facilitate transition to host country sustainability ownership. The effort was coordinated with related SLD Sustainability Program initiatives, including a configuration items baselining initiative, a metrics initiative, and a maintenance initiative. The spares study has also led to pilot programs for sourcing alternatives that include regional intermediate inventories and partnering agreements that leverage existing supply chains. Many partners from the SLD Sustainability program contributed to and were consulted in the course of the study. This document provides a description of the findings, recommendations, and implemented solutions that have resulted from the study.