Georgios Chortareas

Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area

Global current account imbalances have been one of the focal points of interest for policymakers during the last few years. Less attention has been paid, however, to the diverging current account balances of the individual euro area countries. In this paper we consider the dynamics of current account adjustment and the role of real exchange rates in current account determination in the EMU countries. After controlling for the effects of income growth, we find the relationship between real exchange rates and current accounts to be substantial in size and subject to nonlinear effects. We find that real exchange rates can offer further insights, beyond the effects of the income catch-up process, relevant to current account determination in the EMU.

Nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates

Abstract This paper modifies a unit-root test procedure in the nonlinear STAR framework recently advanced by Kapetanios et al. [Journal of Econometrics (2001) in press]. Using a detrending methodology suggested by Schmidt and Phillips [Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 54 (1992) 257], we derive an alternative unit-root test and apply it to the bilateral real exchange rates for the G7 countries. We find that the use of our test is able to uncover evidence of nonlinear mean-reversion for most cases whereas the standard Dickey–Fuller test based on the linear model cannot.

The Yen Real Exchange Rate May Be Stationary After All: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit-Root Tests

The empirical literature that tests for purchasing power parity (PPP) by focusing on the stationarity of real exchange rates has so far provided, at best, mixed results. The behaviour of the yen real exchange rate has most stubbornly challenged the PPP hypothesis and deepened this puzzle. This paper contributes to this discussion by providing new evidence on the stationarity of bilateral yen real exchange rates. We employ a non-linear version of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, based on an exponentially smooth-transition autoregressive model (ESTAR) that enhances the power of the tests against mean-reverting non-linear alternative hypotheses. Our results suggest that the bilateral yen real exchange rates against the other G7 and Asian currencies were mean reverting during the post-Bretton Woods era. Thus, the real yen behaviour may not be so different after all but simply perceived to be so due to the use of a restrictive alternative hypothesis in previous tests.

Banking Sector Performance in Latin America: Market Power versus Efficiency

TSince the mid-1990s the banking sector in the Latin American emerging markets has experienced profound changes due to financial liberalisation, a significant increase in foreign investments and greater mergers activities often occurring following financial crises. The wave of consolidation and the rapid increase in market concentration that took place in most countries has generated concerns about the rise in banks’ market power and its potential effects on consumers. This paper advances the existing literature by testing the market power (Structure-Conduct-Performance and Relative Market Power) and efficient structure (X- and scale efficiency) hypotheses for a sample of over 2,500 bank observations in nine Latin American countries over 1997-2005. We use the Data Envelopment Analysis technique to obtain reliable efficiency measures. We produce evidence supporting the efficient structure hypotheses. The findings are particularly robust for the largest banking markets in the region, namely Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Finally, capital ratios and bank size seem to be among the most important factors in explaining higher than normal profits for Latin American banks.

An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Stationarity Tests

Using a new methodology that allows for nonlinearities, we find frequent support for sustainability in the debt of a set of Latin American countries. Our findings overturn results obtained with traditional unit-root tests and provide a more realistic alternative to evaluate the external solvency of an economy.

Does monetary policy transparency reduce disinflation costs

We examine the relationship between central bank transparency and the costs of disinflation. We provide a model where disinflation efforts imply a higher sacrifice ratio when the public is not fully convinced about the central bank’s resolve to reduce inflation and show that information dissemination by the central bank can remedy this problem. To assess the empirical implications we estimate sacrifice ratios based on individual estimates of Phillips curves in 21 OECD economies. Using transparency indices pertaining to both the detail with which central banks publish forecasts and the means by which policy decisions are explained, we find that a higher degree of central bank transparency is associated with lower sacrifice ratios. This result is robust to alternative estimation methods and periods considered.

PPP and the Real Exchange Rate - Real Interest Rate Differential Puzzle Revisited: Evidence from Non-Stationary Panel Data

This paper examines the evidence for two of the relationships that underpin (explicitly or implicitly) much of international macroeconomics. The first is purchasing power parity (PPP), or the hypothesis that there exists a constant long-run equilibrium real exchange rate. The second establishes a relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. The tests are conducted on a panel of 18 OECD economies using the United States as a numeraire for the post-Bretton Woods era. The results are obtained using new non-stationary panel estimation techniques, which significantly increase the power of the tests. All the tests suggest that there is little evidence supporting PPP when it is tested directly. This contrasts with earlier panel data studies, which tended to find that the real exchange rate was stationary. The results supporting a long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials appear to be more positive. This again provides a contrast with earlier results, which tended to find no evidence of cointegration. Such studies concentrated on G7 economies. To investigate this further the panel was split into two groups: the G7 and eleven small open economies. For the panel of small open economies strong evidence in favour of cointegration is found. In contrast, there is no evidence of cointegration in a panel that consists purely of the G7 economies.

Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high-frequency data: Is the euro different?

This paper focuses on forecasting volatility of high frequency Euro exchange rates. Four 15 minute frequency Euro exchange rate series, including Euro/CHF, Euro/GBP, Euro/JPY and Euro/USD, are used to test the forecast performance of six models, including both traditional time series volatility models and the realized volatility model. Besides the normally used regression test and accuracy test, an equal accuracy test, the HLN-DM test, and a superior predictive ability test are also employed in the out-of-sample forecast evaluation. The FIGARCH model is found to be superior in almost all exchange rate series. Although the widely preferred ARFIMA model shows better performance than the traditional daily volatility models, generally speaking, it cannot surpass the FIGARCH model and the intraday GARCH model. Furthermore, the SVX model does not significantly outperform the SV model in the accuracy test, which contradicts the results of some earlier research. The paper confirms the advantage of using high frequency data and modelling the long memory factor. It also analyses the characteristics of Euro exchange rates and compares the test results with the conclusions drawn by previous studies

Financial Frictions, Bank Efficiency and Risk: Evidence from the Eurozone

This paper employs a simultaneous equations approach to investigate the dynamics between financial frictions, efficiency and risk for eurozones commercial banks. We consider two related channels through which financial frictions may arise: informational and market structure imperfections, and allow for a possible reverse causation from efficiency to banks asset quality. The findings validate the presence of both channels of financial frictions and are consistent with the efficiency-lending quality hypothesis that low efficiency signals poor asset quality loans. Finally, our findings suggest that policies aimed at constraining banks degree of openness may ultimately direct management choices towards riskier investments.

Financial Development and Productive Efficiency in OECD Countries: An Exploratory Analysis

The recent literature provides evidence for a positive relationship between financial deepening and growth but is quite silent on the exact channels through which it materializes. Theory suggests that production efficiency should be one of those main channels. We attempt to capture this channel by modeling productive efficiency explicitly and constructing efficiency frontiers using data envelopment analysis. We apply this procedure to consider whether financial development creates productive efficiency gains in the industrialized OECD countries. Our results show that financial development contributes to productive efficiency. However, this effect weakens over time during the period under scrutiny. Moreover, we find that the effects of financial deepening on productive efficiency depend on the degree of efficiency already achieved.