Gerald C. Nelson

Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options

As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the worlds population. This study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be and suggests some steps policymakers can take to remedy the situation.

Deforestation, Land Use, and Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Darién, Panama

Economic conventional wisdom suggests that providing land users with more secure property rights will result in more sustainable land use and less deforestation. In this paper, we use spatial econometric techniques to evaluate quantitatively the effect on land use of designated property rights in three parts of Darién province––a national park where no human activity is supposed to occur, and two reserves for indigenous peoples. Results suggest that legal property rights for an indigenous population can influence land use. Geography appears to be more important than legal protection for the national park. (JEL Q15, Q23)

The Costs of Indonesian Sugar Policy: A Policy Analysis Matrix Approach

Indonesian sugar policy is a complex web of contradictory policies, including mandatory production, price supports, and fertilizer and credit subsidies. The policy analysis matrix (PAM) was developed by Monke and Pearson to provide a more complete perspective on social profitability and the divergence between private and social costs than other commonly used social cost-benefit measures. The PAM is used to analyze the effects of Indonesian sugar policy on sugar production in irrigated and dryland areas on Java, the main sugar-producing region in Indonesia, and to identify the distribution of resource transfers.

Simulating a relative environmental effect of glyphosate-resistant soybeans

Abstract Great controversy surrounds the potential environmental effects of genetically modified crops (GMOs). Of the GM crops currently in commercial use, glyphosate-resistant (GR) soybeans have probably received the most attention from both proponents and opponents of GMOs. GR soybeans are an example of an input-substituting technological innovation. Adoption is a private decision, based on the adopters assessment of private costs and benefits, but may also have external effects. Measuring and valuing these effects completely is not possible today. Environmental indicators are attempts to find more easily measured proxies for the external effects. We present an environmental indicator based on a standardized, well-known acute mammalian toxicity measure, the LD50 dose for rats. We use this indicator to compare an environmental effect of the use of GR genetically modified soybeans to the use of non-modified soybeans for over 1400 US Midwest farms. This indicator is superior to previous indicators used to assess environmental effects of GR soybeans that rely on adding up volumes of different herbicides. The indicator allows for consistent aggregation of a specific environmental effect across many different pesticides. Furthermore, the methodology can be used to compare environmental effects for many other types of technology choices since values are mandated for all pesticides. Our simulation results suggest that GR soybean seed technology is more environmentally friendly than non-GR technology for all farms in the dimension of acute mammalian toxicity. The effect is generally more pronounced in the South where a longer growing season makes overall weed pressure more serious and presents soybean growers with a greater variety of weed species.

Land Use and Road Improvements: A Spatial Perspective

The literature on whether new roads cause deforestation in developing countries has grown rapidly. However, improvements rather than new construction are increasingly common. Renovations are undertaken when prior maintenance expenditures have not been adequateor when economic or political considerations generate sufficient capital funds. As with new construction, the basic outcome of renovation is to lower transport costs. However, the cost reduction is often much less than that of the original road development. Hence, the potential for negative environmental effects is less clear and an understanding of location-specific effects is likely to be especially important. This article estimates econometrically a spatially explicit economic model of a proposed road improvement activity in Panama’s Darién province and simulates locationspecific effects on land use. The authors explore three estimation techniques that deal with different estimation issues. At least for this data set, multinomial nested logit and random parameters logit approaches provide roughly similar results.

Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: a transdisciplinary analysis

Summary Background Information about the global structure of agriculture and nutrient production and its diversity is essential to improve present understanding of national food production patterns, agricultural livelihoods, and food chains, and their linkages to land use and their associated ecosystems services. Here we provide a plausible breakdown of global agricultural and nutrient production by farm size, and also study the associations between farm size, agricultural diversity, and nutrient production. This analysis is crucial to design interventions that might be appropriately targeted to promote healthy diets and ecosystems in the face of population growth, urbanisation, and climate change. Methods We used existing spatially-explicit global datasets to estimate the production levels of 41 major crops, seven livestock, and 14 aquaculture and fish products. From overall production estimates, we estimated the production of vitamin A, vitamin B12, folate, iron, zinc, calcium, calories, and protein. We also estimated the relative contribution of farms of different sizes to the production of different agricultural commodities and associated nutrients, as well as how the diversity of food production based on the number of different products grown per geographic pixel and distribution of products within this pixel (Shannon diversity index [H]) changes with different farm sizes. Findings Globally, small and medium farms (≤50 ha) produce 51–77% of nearly all commodities and nutrients examined here. However, important regional differences exist. Large farms (>50 ha) dominate production in North America, South America, and Australia and New Zealand. In these regions, large farms contribute between 75% and 100% of all cereal, livestock, and fruit production, and the pattern is similar for other commodity groups. By contrast, small farms (≤20 ha) produce more than 75% of most food commodities in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, south Asia, and China. In Europe, west Asia and north Africa, and central America, medium-size farms (20–50 ha) also contribute substantially to the production of most food commodities. Very small farms (≤2 ha) are important and have local significance in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and south Asia, where they contribute to about 30% of most food commodities. The majority of vegetables (81%), roots and tubers (72%), pulses (67%), fruits (66%), fish and livestock products (60%), and cereals (56%) are produced in diverse landscapes (H>1·5). Similarly, the majority of global micronutrients (53–81%) and protein (57%) are also produced in more diverse agricultural landscapes (H>1·5). By contrast, the majority of sugar (73%) and oil crops (57%) are produced in less diverse ones (H≤1·5), which also account for the majority of global calorie production (56%). The diversity of agricultural and nutrient production diminishes as farm size increases. However, areas of the world with higher agricultural diversity produce more nutrients, irrespective of farm size. Interpretation Our results show that farm size and diversity of agricultural production vary substantially across regions and are key structural determinants of food and nutrient production that need to be considered in plans to meet social, economic, and environmental targets. At the global level, both small and large farms have key roles in food and nutrition security. Efforts to maintain production diversity as farm sizes increase seem to be necessary to maintain the production of diverse nutrients and viable, multifunctional, sustainable landscapes. Funding Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CGIAR Research Programs on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security and on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health funded by the CGIAR Fund Council, Daniel and Nina Carasso Foundation, European Union, International Fund for Agricultural Development, Australian Research Council, National Science Foundation, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change—Belmont Forum.

Political feasibility of structural adjustment in Africa: An application of SAM mixed multipliers

Abstract The implementation of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) has often been undermined by opposition from politically powerful groups who are favored by existing policies. To assess the political sustainability of SAPs this paper uses social accounting matrices for three African countries to model the income effects of stylized SAPs on different socioeconomic groups. The analysis reveals wide variation in the likelihood for typical SAPs to be acceptable to political elites while generating growth in the rest of the economy. The presence of a rural elite or strong farm-nonfarm linkages can enhance the political sustainability of SAPs.

GMO Adoption and Nonmarket Effects

Publisher Summary This chapter reviews the three sets of issues associated with the adoption of genetically modified organisms (GMO), which include environmental safety, food safety, and the indirect impact of the spread of the technology on developing countries. GMO increases the productivity of a crop and reduces soil movement, and hence soil erosion. The primary short-run negative environmental side effect of GMOs designed to resist pests is that nontarget organisms might be affected as well. Three long-run, sustainability concerns associated with GMOs have received the most attention, which include resistance development in target and nontarget populations, the possibility that with enhanced survival traits the plant might become a weed, and flow of the novel genetic material to other species changing local or global ecosystems. Another sustainability concern arises from the use of antibiotic resistance-inducing marker genes. Development of resistance in target species is probably the single most important sustainability concern associated with GMOs engineered to enhance pest management. The antibiotics intended for therapeutic use might be inadvertently inactivated and the genetic material that confers antibiotic resistance might flow to microorganisms in the gut of animals consuming the GMO (genetic flow). Mutations unrelated to the desired modification might be induced; undesirable traits might be introduced along with the desired traits; newly introduced DNA might inactivate a host gene or alter control of its expression; or the introduced gene product or a metabolic product affected by the genetic change may interact with other cellular products.

The Domestic and Regional Regulatory Environment

Publisher Summary This chapter reviews the domestic and regional regulatory environments related to genetically modified organisms (GMO). Regulation typically occurs at four levels of activity – technology patenting, field-testing of the crop, animal and human consumption trials, and approval for commercial use as a crop and for human and animal consumption. Regulations differ greatly in scale and implementation, varying from extremely restrictive in some industrialized countries to nonexistent in some developing countries. The study shows that food safety aspects of GMOs generally have been grafted onto the responsibility of ministries of health. These agencies have started from existing food safety regulations and modified them somewhat to deal with specific GMO issues. Environmental regulatory authority has more often been split between ministries of agriculture and ministries of the environment and natural resources. Agriculture ministries traditionally regulate development and release of new varieties, so it was a natural fit to add release of GM varieties. The role of environment ministries, have however been less clear. The potential for duplicative regulation is obvious, as is the potential for non-market effects to escape regulation by falling between the cracks. Perhaps the most important point to emphasize is that regulatory efforts are rapidly changing, both in response to consumer and environmental groups and to keep up with technology.

Traits and Techniques of GMOs

Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the traits and techniques of genetically modified organisms (GMO) such as Bt corn, Bt cotton, and glyphosate-resistant (GR) soybeans. While all are engineered to deal with pests of a commercial crop, they differ in the nature of the pest and in their functioning. Bt corn and cotton are designed to kill lepidopteran (the butterfly and moth order) corn and cotton pests (European and southwestern corn borers, cotton budworms and bollworms) while leaving most beneficial insects unaffected. Bt corn improves the control of European corn borer (ECB), Ostrinia nubilalis dramatically, and if timed well, synthetic insecticides typically provide control for 60 to 95% of first-generation larvae and 40 to 80% of second-generation larvae. From the perspective of the corn grower, Bt corn varieties have many desirable properties such as ease of use, no exposure to noxious chemicals, and no safety issues for mammals. GR soybeans allow the application of glyphosate (trade name Roundup), a broad-spectrum herbicide, directly to the soybean field, killing other plants while leaving the soybeans unharmed. Glyphosate controls weeds by inhibiting an enzyme (EPSP synthase) necessary for the plants growth. In 1996, Monsanto introduced the first glyphosate-resistant crop, Roundup Ready soybeans. In 1999, glyphosate-resistant varieties were made available for five commercial crops, namely, soybeans, cotton, corn, sugar beets, and canola with several other glyphosate-resistant crops under development.