Gernot J. Müller

What Determines Government Spending Multipliers

This paper studies how the effects of government spending vary with the economic environment. Using a panel of OECD countries, we identify fiscal shocks as residuals from an estimated spending rule and trace their macroeconomic impact under different conditions regarding the exchange rate regime, public indebtedness, and health of the financial system. The unconditional responses to a positive spending shock broadly confirm earlier findings. However, conditional responses differ systematically across exchange rate regimes, as real appreciation and external deficits occur mainly under currency pegs. We also find output and consumption multipliers to be unusually high during times of financial crisis.

Fleshing out the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Output Composition and the Role of Financial Frictions

Financial frictions affect the way in which different macroeconomic series respond to a monetary policy shock. We embed the financial accelerator of Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999) into a medium-scale DSGE model and evaluate the relative importance of financial frictions in explaining monetary transmission. Specifically, we apply minimum distance estimation based on impulse responses for the Volcker-Greenspan period. Apart from providing estimates for structural parameters, our procedure lends itself for specification tests that can be used to assess the relative fit of various restricted models. Financial frictions turn out to be of lesser importance for the descriptive success of our model.

Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle

In contrast to the notion that the exchange-rate regime is non-neutral, there is little evidence that EMU has systematically changed the European business cycle. In fact, we find the volatility of macroeconomic variables largely unchanged before and after the introduction of the euro. Exceptions are a strong decline in real exchange rate volatility and a considerable increase in cross-country correlations. To account for this finding, we develop a two-country business cycle model which is able to replicate key features of European data. In particular, the model correctly predicts a limited effect of EMU on standard business cycles statistics. However, further analysis reveals that the euro has changed the nature of the cycle through its impact on the transmission mechanism. Cross-country spillovers have become relatively more, domestic shocks relatively less important in accounting for economic fluctuations under EMU. This explains why there is little change in unconditional volatilities.

Floats, Pegs and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy

According to conventional wisdom, fiscal policy is more effective under a fixed than under a flexible exchange rate regime. In this paper we reconsider the transmission of shocks to government spending across these regimes within a standard new-Keynesian model of a small open economy. Because of the stronger emphasis on intertemporal optimization, the new-Keynesian framework requires a precise specification of fiscal and monetary policies, and their interaction, at both short and long horizons. We derive an analytical characterization of the transmission mechanism of expansionary spending policies under a peg, showing that the long-term real interest rate necessarily rises if inflation rises on impact, in response to an increase in government spending. This drives down private demand even though short-term real rates fall. As this need not be the case under floating exchange rates, the conventional wisdom needs to be qualified. Under plausible medium-term fiscal policies, government spending is not necessarily less expansionary under floating exchange rates.

Fiscal Austerity and the Multiplier in Times of Crisis

Abstract The article reviews the debate on government spending multiplier and provides a detailed discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms, focusing on the role of the state of the business cycle and the monetary policy reaction. Special emphasis is on the effects of fiscal policy within a currency union and its implications for the euro crisis.

Fixed on Flexible Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession

The zero lower bound problem during the Great Recession has exposed the limits of monetary autonomy, prompting a re-evaluation of the relative benefits of currency pegs and monetary unions (see, e.g., Cook and Devereux in Journal of International Economics 101:52–69, 2016). We revisit this issue from the perspective of a small open economy. While a peg can be beneficial when the recession originates domestically, we show that a float dominates in the face of deflationary demand shocks abroad. When the rest of the world is in a liquidity trap, the domestic currency depreciates in nominal and real terms even in the absence of domestic monetary stimulus (if domestic rates are also at the zero lower bound)—enhancing the country’s competitiveness and insulating to some extent the domestic economy from foreign deflationary pressure.

Fiskalpolitik und Finanzmärkte: Perspektiven für Forschung und Wirtschaftspolitik

Abstract It has become common to insist that contemporary international economic problems require a great increase in the extent of “global governance” of economic affairs. This desire, understandable as it may be, confronts a series of major obstacles. First, the normative case for global governance is more difficult to justify, and more complex, than is usually recognized, and requires consideration of both economic and political-economy principles. Second, in practice, the provision of governance at the supra-national level - that is, of international public goods - depends largely on support from powerful and concentrated interests. Third, this dynamic means that the types of international public goods provided, the way they are provided, and the governance structures erected around them are biased in favor of their strongest supporters, and are therefore likely to be a source of continuing controversy.