Gerry McCartney

Regional alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality in Great Britain: novel insights using retail sales data

BackgroundRegional differences in population levels of alcohol-related harm exist across Great Britain, but these are not entirely consistent with differences in population levels of alcohol consumption. This incongruence may be due to the use of self-report surveys to estimate consumption. Survey data are subject to various biases and typically produce consumption estimates much lower than those based on objective alcohol sales data. However, sales data have never been used to estimate regional consumption within Great Britain (GB). This ecological study uses alcohol retail sales data to provide novel insights into regional alcohol consumption in GB, and to explore the relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality.MethodsAlcohol sales estimates derived from electronic sales, delivery records and retail outlet sampling were obtained. The volume of pure alcohol sold was used to estimate per adult consumption, by market sector and drink type, across eleven GB regions in 2010–11. Alcohol-related mortality rates were calculated for the same regions and a cross-sectional correlation analysis between consumption and mortality was performed.ResultsPer adult consumption in northern England was above the GB average and characterised by high beer sales. A high level of consumption in South West England was driven by on-trade sales of cider and spirits and off-trade wine sales. Scottish regions had substantially higher spirits sales than elsewhere in GB, particularly through the off-trade. London had the lowest per adult consumption, attributable to lower off-trade sales across most drink types. Alcohol-related mortality was generally higher in regions with higher per adult consumption. The relationship was weakened by the South West and Central Scotland regions, which had the highest consumption levels, but discordantly low and very high alcohol-related mortality rates, respectively.ConclusionsThis study provides support for the ecological relationship between alcohol-related mortality and alcohol consumption. The synthesis of knowledge from a combination of sales, survey and mortality data, as well as primary research studies, is key to ensuring that regional alcohol consumption, and its relationship with alcohol-related harms, is better understood.

Contribution of smoking-related and alcohol-related deaths to the gender gap in mortality: evidence from 30 European countries

Background Women now outlive men throughout the globe, a mortality advantage that is very established in developed European countries. Debate continues about the causes of the gender gap, although smoking is known to have been a major contributor to the difference in the past. Objectives To compare the magnitude of the gender gap in all-cause mortality in 30 European countries and assess the contribution of smoking-related and alcohol-related deaths. Methods Data on all-cause mortality, smoking-related mortality and alcohol-related mortality for 30 European countries were extracted from the World Health Organization Health for All database for the year closest to 2005. Rates were standardised by the direct method using the European population standard and were for all age groups. The proportion of the gender gap in all-cause mortality attributable to smoking-related and alcohol-related deaths was then calculated. Results There was considerable variation in the magnitude of the male ‘excess’ of all-cause mortality across Europe, ranging from 188 per 100 000 per year in Iceland to 942 per 100 000 per year in Ukraine. Smoking-related deaths accounted for around 40% to 60% of the gender gap, while alcohol-related mortality typically accounted for 20% to 30% of the gender gap in Eastern Europe and 10% to 20% elsewhere in Europe. Conclusions Smoking continues to be the most important cause of gender differences in mortality across Europe, but its importance as an explanation for this difference is often overshadowed by presumptions about other explanations. Changes in smoking patterns by gender suggest that the gender gap in mortality will diminish in the coming decades.

Has Scotland always been the ‘sick man’ of Europe? An observational study from 1855 to 2006

Background: Scotland has been dubbed ‘the sick man of Europe’ on account of its higher mortality rates compared with other western European countries. It is not clear the length of time for which Scotland has had higher mortality rates. The root causes of the higher mortality in Scotland remain elusive. Methods: Life expectancy data from the Human Mortality Database were tabulated and graphed for a selection of wealthy, mainly European countries from around 1850 onwards. Results: Scotland had a life expectancy in the mid-range of countries included in the Human Mortality Database from the mid-19th century until around 1950. After 1950, Scottish life expectancy improved at a slower rate than in comparably wealthy nations before further faltering during the last 30 years. Scottish life expectancy now lies between that of western European and eastern European nations. The USA also displays a marked faltering in its life expectancy trend after 1981. There is an inverse association between life expectancy and the Index of Economic Freedom such that greater neoliberalism is associated with a smaller increase, or a decrease, in life expectancy. Conclusion: Life expectancy in Scotland has only been relatively low since around 1950. From 1980, life expectancy in Scotland, the USA and, to a greater extent, the former USSR displays a further relative faltering. It has been suggested that Scotland suffered disproportionately from the adoption of neoliberalism across the nations of the UK, and the evidence here both supports this suggestion and highlights other countries which may have suffered similarly.

The Impact of Neoliberal “Political Attack” on Health: The Case of the “Scottish Effect”

The health impact of neoliberal “shock treatment” has been explored in relation to the former USSR, but much remains to be done to ascertain its impact elsewhere. The authors consider the “Scottish Effect” in health—the unexplained excess mortality in Scotland, compared with the rest of Britain, after accounting for deprivation. A prevalent but as yet untested view is that this effect is linked to the neoliberal “political attack” against the organized working class, implemented by the post-1979 U.K. Conservative governments. The article begins to develop and test this view in the form of a “political attack hypothesis.” It shows how the west of Scotland became a particular target for the political attack planned by the U.K. Conservative Party prior to its election in 1979; outlines how such an attack might affect health; and shows that after 1979 the United Kingdom as a whole was exposed to neoliberalism in a way other European nations were not and, crucially, that the west of Scotland was more vulnerable to its damaging effects than other U.K. regions. The authors conclude that it is now appropriate to explore more fully the role of neoliberal political attack in creating the “Scottish Effect” in health.

The Impact of Thatcherism on Health and Well-Being in Britain

Margaret Thatcher (1925–2013) was the United Kingdoms prime minister from 1979 to 1990. Her informal transatlantic alliance with U.S. President Ronald Reagan from 1981 to 1989 played an important role in the promotion of an international neoliberal policy agenda that remains influential today. Her critique of UK social democracy during the 1970s and her adoption of key neoliberal strategies, such as financial deregulation, trade liberalization, and the privatization of public goods and services, were popularly labeled Thatcherism. In this article, we consider the nature of Thatcherism and its impact on health and well-being during her period as prime minister and, to a lesser extent, in the years that follow; we focus mainly on Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales). Thatchers policies were associated with substantial increases in socioeconomic and health inequalities: these issues were actively marginalized and ignored by her governments. In addition, her public-sector reforms applied business principles to the welfare state and prepared the National Health Service for subsequent privatization.

Assessing the representativeness of population-sampled health surveys through linkage to administrative data on alcohol-related outcomes.

Health surveys are an important resource for monitoring population health, but selective nonresponse may impede valid inference. This study aimed to assess nonresponse bias in a population-sampled health survey in Scotland, with a focus on alcohol-related outcomes. Nonresponse bias was assessed by examining whether rates of alcohol-related harm (i.e., hospitalization or death) and all-cause mortality among respondents to the Scottish Health Surveys (from 1995 to 2010) were equivalent to those in the general population, and whether the extent of any bias varied according to sociodemographic attributes or over time. Data from consenting respondents (aged 20–64 years) to 6 Scottish Health Surveys were confidentially linked to death and hospitalization records and compared with general population counterparts. Directly age-standardized incidence rates of alcohol-related harm and all-cause mortality were lower among Scottish Health Survey respondents compared with the general population. For all years combined, the survey-to-population rate ratios were 0.69 (95% confidence interval: 0.61, 0.76) for the incidence of alcohol-related harm and 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 0.96) for all-cause mortality. Bias was more pronounced among persons residing in more deprived areas; limited evidence was found for regional or temporal variation. This suggests that corresponding underestimation of population rates of alcohol consumption is likely to be socially patterned.

Explaining the excess mortality in Scotland compared with England: pooling of 18 cohort studies

Background Mortality in Scotland is higher than in the rest of west and central Europe and is improving more slowly. Relative to England and Wales, the excess is only partially explained by area deprivation. We tested the extent to which sociodemographic, behavioural, anthropometric and biological factors explain the higher mortality in Scotland compared with England. Methods Pooled data from 18 nationally representative cohort studies comprising the Health Surveys for England (HSE) and the Scottish Health Survey (SHS). Cox regression analysis was used to quantify the excess mortality risk in Scotland relative to England with adjustment for baseline characteristics. Results A total of 193 873 participants with a mean of 9.6 years follow-up gave rise to 21 345 deaths. The age-adjusted and sex-adjusted all-cause mortality HR for Scottish respondents compared with English respondents was 1.40 (95% CI 1.34 to 1.47), which attenuated to 1.29 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.36) with the addition of the baseline socioeconomic and behavioural characteristics. Cause-specific mortality HRs attenuated only marginally to 1.43 (95% 1.28 to 1.60) for ischaemic heart disease, 1.37 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.63) for stroke, 1.41 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.53) for all cancers, 3.43 (95% CI 1.85 to 6.36) for illicit drug-related poisoning and 4.64 (95% CI 3.55 to 6.05) for alcohol-related mortality. The excess was greatest among young adults (16–44 years) and was observed across all occupational social classes with the greatest excess in the unskilled group. Conclusions Only a quarter of the excess mortality among Scottish respondents could be explained by the available baseline risk factors. Greater understanding is required on the lived experience of poverty, the role of social support, and the historical, environmental, cultural and political influences on health in Scotland.

Use of record-linkage to handle non-response and improve alcohol consumption estimates in health survey data: a study protocol

Introduction Reliable estimates of health-related behaviours, such as levels of alcohol consumption in the population, are required to formulate and evaluate policies. National surveys provide such data; validity depends on generalisability, but this is threatened by declining response levels. Attempts to address bias arising from non-response are typically limited to survey weights based on sociodemographic characteristics, which do not capture differential health and related behaviours within categories. This project aims to explore and address non-response bias in health surveys with a focus on alcohol consumption. Methods and analysis The Scottish Health Surveys (SHeS) aim to provide estimates representative of the Scottish population living in private households. Survey data of consenting participants (92% of the achieved sample) have been record-linked to routine hospital admission (Scottish Morbidity Records (SMR)) and mortality (from National Records of Scotland (NRS)) data for surveys conducted in 1995, 1998, 2003, 2008, 2009 and 2010 (total adult sample size around 40 000), with maximum follow-up of 16 years. Also available are census information and SMR/NRS data for the general population. Comparisons of alcohol-related mortality and hospital admission rates in the linked SHeS-SMR/NRS with those in the general population will be made. Survey data will be augmented by quantification of differences to refine alcohol consumption estimates through the application of multiple imputation or inverse probability weighting. The resulting corrected estimates of population alcohol consumption will enable superior policy evaluation. An advanced weighting procedure will be developed for wider use. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval for SHeS has been given by the National Health Service (NHS) Multi-Centre Research Ethics Committee and use of linked data has been approved by the Privacy Advisory Committee to the Board of NHS National Services Scotland and Registrar General. Funding has been granted by the MRC. The outputs will include four or five public health and statistical methodological international journal and conference papers. Primary subject heading Public health. Secondary subject heading Addiction: health policy; mental health.

A review of the validity and reliability of alcohol retail sales data for monitoring population levels of alcohol consumption: a Scottish perspective.

Aims: To assess the validity and reliability of using alcohol retail sales data to measure and monitor population levels of alcohol consumption. Methods: Potential sources of bias that could lead to under- or overestimation of population alcohol consumption based on alcohol retail sales data were identified and, where possible, quantified. This enabled an assessment of the potential impact of each bias on alcohol consumption estimates in Scotland. Results: Overall, considering all the possible sources of overestimation and underestimation, and taking into account the potential for sampling variability to impact on the results, the range of uncertainty of consumption during 2010 was from an overestimate of 0.3 l to an underestimate of 2.4 l of pure alcohol per adult. This excludes the impacts of alcohol stockpiling and alcohol sold through outlets not included in the sampling frame. On balance, there is therefore far greater scope for alcohol retail sales data to be underestimating per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland than there is for overestimation. Conclusion: Alcohol retail sales data offer a robust source of data for monitoring per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland. Consideration of the sources of bias and a comprehensive understanding of data collection methods are essential for using sales data to monitor trends in alcohol consumption.

How will the 2014 Commonwealth Games impact on Glasgow's health, and how will we know?

This article identifies pathways through which impacts from the 2014 Commonwealth Games might arise. It also assesses the likelihood of positive impacts and considers how best to evaluate the games. The pathways identified are: economic growth; increased sports participation; increased pride and sense of identity; volunteering; improved environment; and legacy programmes. There is little or no evidence from previous major multi-sports events to suggest that any of these pathways are likely to generate meaningful positive outcomes although there is an absence of evidence for some. The available evidence could be improved if the 2014 Games were to be evaluated using: retrospective cohort analysis for discrete interventions; theory-based comparative cohort analyses, which includes an assessment of opportunity costs for effects that are intrinsic to hosting the event; and a realist evaluation of ‘catalytic impacts’.