Gf Maywald

A Climate Model of the Red Imported Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): Implications for Invasion of New Regions, Particularly Oceania

Abstract The paucity of empirical data on processes in species life cycles demands tools to extract insight from field observations. Such insights help inform policy on invasive species and on impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. We used the CLIMEX model to infer the response of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), to temperature and moisture from its range in the United States. We tested hypotheses on the mechanisms that limit the distribution of the ant and estimated the potential global area at risk from invasion. The ant can spread further in the United States, including north along the west coast, where patterns of infestation will differ from those in the east. We analyzed the risk of colonization in Australia and New Zealand, where the ant was recently discovered. The patterns of infestation of the ant in Oceania will differ from those in the eastern United States, with slower growth and less winter mortality. This study adds to earlier temperature-based models by incorporating a moisture response; by replacing arbitrary categories of colony size to predict overwintering success with a site-specific model based on the balance between annual growth and survival; and by comparing different hypotheses on low temperature-related mechanisms that limit the geographical distribution. It shows how the response of a species to climate can be synthesized from field observations to provide useful insights into its population dynamics. Such analyses provide a basis for making decisions on regional management of invasive species and an informative context for local studies.

Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine

The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C3 shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.

Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework).

Prevalence, severity, and heritability of Stephanofilaria lesions on cattle in central and southern Queensland, Australia

Observations of cattle in central and southern Queensland are collated to de. ne the prevalence and area of Stephanofilaria lesions associated with infestations of the buffalo fly, Haematobia irritans exigua. The observations were made on herds that were being used for other purposes. In a survey of similar to 1500 animals at Belmont in central Queensland in 1982, 98% of cows and 70% of calves had lesions. Most lesions were on the neck and dewlap and 10% were raw and weeping at the time of sampling. The total area of lesions per animal was strongly related to cattle breed and age. Old Bos taurus animals had the greatest area of lesions, whereas young Bos indicus had the least. Heritability estimates were low, averaging 0.01 for calves and 0.18 for cows. A smaller survey of cows and steers at Craighoyle in central Queensland in 1986 showed a higher numbers of lesions and positive correlations between the total lesion area and animal size. The lesion area increased with tick survival, suggesting that tick-resistant animals are also resistant to Stephanofilaria infection. Steers had smaller areas of lesions than cows, as found previously with cattle ticks. Long-term monitoring observations in central and southern Queensland between 1981 and 1986 showed that the total area of lesions was seasonal with a peak in late summer, consistent with the seasonal incidence of buffalo fly. Animals segregated into Low and High lesion herds maintained their differences over time. The lesions penetrated the dermis of the cattle hides and rendered the affected area unusable, but few lesions occurred on valuable parts of the hide so such economic effects are likely to be insignificant. One animal nearly died of a haemorrhage from a lesion on the dewlap and had to be treated. The results can inform policy on buffalo fly control, and biosecurity preparations in relation to the potential establishment of the OldWorld screw-worm fly, Chrysomyia bezziana, in Australia, which will be facilitated by the lesions. The results emphasise the significant animal welfare and biosecurity risks posed by the lesions in northern Australia.