Ghina Mumtaz

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in Egypt: a systematic review and data synthesis

BackgroundEgypt has the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the world, estimated nationally at 14.7%. Our study’s objective was to delineate the evidence on the epidemiology of HCV infection among the different population groups in Egypt, and to draw analytical inferences about the nature of HCV transmission in this country.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of all data on HCV prevalence and incidence in Egypt following PRISMA guidelines. The main sources of data included PubMed and Embase databases. We also used a multivariate regression model to infer the temporal trend of HCV prevalence among the general population and high risk population in Egypt.ResultsWe identified 150 relevant records, four of which were incidence studies. HCV incidence ranged from 0.8 to 6.8 per 1,000 person-years. Overall, HCV prevalence among pregnant women ranged between 5-15%, among blood donors between 5-25%, and among other general population groups between 0-40%. HCV prevalence among multi-transfused patients ranged between 10-55%, among dialysis patients between 50-90%, and among other high risk populations between 10% and 85%. HCV prevalence varied widely among other clinical populations and populations at intermediate risk. Risk factors appear to be parenteral anti-schistosomal therapy, injections, transfusions, and surgical procedures, among others. Results of our time trend analysis suggest that there is no evidence of a statistically significant decline in HCV prevalence over time in both the general population (p-value: 0.215) and high risk population (p-value: 0.426).ConclusionsEgypt is confronted with an HCV disease burden of historical proportions that distinguishes this nation from others. A massive HCV epidemic at the national level must have occurred with substantial transmission still ongoing today. HCV prevention in Egypt must become a national priority. Policymakers, and public health and medical care stakeholders need to introduce and implement further prevention measures targeting the routes of HCV transmission.

Epidemiology of HIV infection in the Middle East and North Africa.

Objective:The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region continues to be perceived as a region with very limited HIV epidemiological data, raising many controversies about the status of the epidemic in this part of the world. The objective of this review and synthesis was to address the dearth of strategic interpretable data on HIV in MENA by delineating a data-driven overview of HIV epidemiology in this region. Methods:A comprehensive systematic review of HIV, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and risk behavior studies in MENA, irrespective of design, was undertaken. Sources of data included Medline for peer-reviewed publications, Google Scholar for other scientific literature published in nonindexed local and regional journals, international organizations reports and databases, country-level reports and database including governmental and nongovernmental organizations publications, as well as various other institutional documents. Results:Over 5000 sources of data related to HIV and STIs were identified and reviewed. The quality of data and nature of study designs varied substantially. There was no evidence for a sustainable HIV epidemic in the general population in any of the MENA countries, except possibly for southern Sudan. The general pattern in different countries in MENA points towards emerging epidemics in high-risk populations including injecting drug users, men who have sex with men (MSM) and to a lesser extent female sex workers, with heterogeneity between countries on the relative role of each of these high-risk groups. Exogenous HIV exposures among nationals linked to travel abroad appeared to be the dominant HIV transmission pattern in a few MENA countries with no evidence for much epidemic or endemic transmission. The role of bridging populations in bridging the HIV infection to the general population was found to be very limited. Conclusion:Although they do not provide complete protection against HIV spread, near universal male circumcision and possibly the prevailing sexually conservative cultural norms seemed to have played so far a protective role in slowing and limiting HIV transmission in MENA relative to other regions. If the existing social and epidemiological context remains largely the same, HIV epidemic transmission is likely to remain confined to high-risk populations and their sexual partners, in addition to exogenous exposures. HIV prevention efforts in this region, which continue to be stymied by stigma associated with HIV/AIDS and related risk behaviors, need to be aggressively expanded with a focus on controlling HIV spread along the contours of risk and vulnerability. There is still a window of opportunity to control further HIV transmission among high-risk groups in MENA that, if missed, may entail a health and socioeconomic burden that the region, in large part, is unprepared for.

Are HIV Epidemics among Men Who Have Sex with Men Emerging in the Middle East and North Africa?: A Systematic Review and Data Synthesis

A systematic review by Laith Abu-Raddad and colleagues collates and analyzes the epidemiology of HIV among men who have sex with men in Middle Eastern and North African countries.

HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual risk behavior in the Middle East and North Africa

BACKGROUND HIV prevalence is low in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, though the risk or potential for further spread in the future is not well understood. Behavioral surveys are limited in this region and when available have serious limitations in assessing the risk of HIV acquisition. We demonstrate the potential use of herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence as a marker for HIV risk within MENA. METHODS We designed a mathematical model to assess whether HSV-2 prevalence can be predictive of future HIV spread. We also conducted a systematic literature review of HSV-2 seroprevalence studies within MENA. RESULTS We found that HSV-2 prevalence data are rather limited in this region. Prevalence is typically low among the general population but high in established core groups prone to sexually transmitted infections such as men who have sex with men and female sex workers. Our model predicts that if HSV-2 prevalence is low and stable, then the risk of future HIV epidemics is low. However, expanding or high HSV-2 prevalence (greater than about 20%), implies a risk for a considerable HIV epidemic. Based on available HSV-2 prevalence data, it is not likely that the general population in MENA is experiencing or will experience such a considerable HIV epidemic. Nevertheless, the risk for concentrated HIV epidemics among several high-risk core groups is present. CONCLUSIONS HSV-2 prevalence surveys provide a useful mechanism for identifying and corroborating populations at risk for HIV within MENA. HSV-2 serology offers an effective tool for probing hidden sexual risk behaviors in a region where quality behavioral data are limited.

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in the Maghreb region: systematic review and meta-analyses.

Objective To systematically review and synthesize available epidemiological data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb region and to estimate the country-specific population-level HCV prevalence. Methods We conducted a systematic review of HCV antibody prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb countries as outlined by the PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were conducted using DerSimonian-Laird random-effect models with inverse variance weighting to pool HCV prevalence estimates among general population groups. Results We identified 133 HCV prevalence measures and two HCV incidence measures. Among high risk groups, HCV prevalence ranged between 22% and 94% among people who inject drugs, 20% and 76% among dialysis patients, and 2% and 51% among hemophiliacs. Among intermediate-risk groups, considerable but widely variable HCV prevalence was found. Most common risk factors cited across studies were the duration of dialysis, number of transfusions, and having a history of surgery or dental work. The national HCV prevalence in Algeria was estimated at 0.3% (95%CI: 0.1–0.5), Libya 1.2% (95%CI: 1.1–1.3), Mauritania 1.1% (95%CI: 0–2.3), Morocco 0.8% (95%CI: 0.5–1.2), and Tunisia 0.6% (95%CI: 0.5–0.8). Conclusions HCV prevalence in the Maghreb region of the Middle East and North Africa is comparable to that in developed countries of about 1%. HCV exposures appear often to be linked to medical care and are suggestive of ongoing transmission in such settings. Injecting drug use appears also to be a major, though not dominant, contributor to HCV transmission. Further research is needed to draw a more thorough understanding of HCV epidemiology, especially in the countries with limited number of studies. HCV prevention policy and programming in these countries should focus on the settings of exposure.

The emerging face of the HIV epidemic in the Middle East and North Africa

Purpose of reviewA volume of quality HIV data has materialized recently in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This review provides a thematic narrative of the patterns of HIV infection transmission in this region in light of these data. Recent findingsTens of integrated bio-behavioral surveillance surveys among hard-to-reach key populations at higher risk have been conducted in MENA in the recent years. Many of the studies reported appreciable and growing HIV prevalence. A few studies found alarming prevalence of as much as 87.2% HIV prevalence among people who inject drugs in Tripoli, Libya. The discovery of these hitherto hidden epidemics was unsettling to some authorities after years in which the importance of a focus on HIV prevention among key populations was not recognized. SummaryThe new data from MENA indicate growing HIV epidemics among key populations across the region. There is heterogeneity, however, as to which key populations are affected and in what proportions in different countries. In a few countries, HIV appears to affect only one key population and often there is substantial geographical heterogeneity in HIV transmission. Data are indicative of a growing HIV disease burden in this part of the globe, in contrast with the declining epidemics in most other regions.

Predictors of breast-feeding in a developing country: results of a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE Data on the prevalence and predictors of breast-feeding remain scarce in Lebanon. Moreover, no study has previously addressed the effect of the paediatricians sex on breast-feeding. The present study aimed to assess the prevalence and predictors of breast-feeding at 1 and 4 months of infant age while exploring the potential role of the sex of the paediatrician. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. Predictors of breast-feeding significant at the bivariate level were tested at 1 and 4 months through two stepwise regression models. SETTING Infants were enrolled through the clinics and dispensaries of 117 paediatricians located in Beirut, Lebanon, and its suburbs. SUBJECTS A total of 1,320 healthy newborn infants born between August 2001 and February 2002 were prospectively followed during the first year. FINDINGS Breast-feeding rates at 1 and 4 months were 56.3 % and 24.7 %, respectively. Early discharge, high parity and religion were significantly associated with higher breast-feeding rates at 1 and 4 months of age. Maternal age proved significant only at 1 month, while maternal working status and sex of the paediatrician were significant at 4 months. A novel finding of our study was the positive effect of female paediatricians on breast-feeding continuation until 4 months of age (OR = 1.49; 95 % CI 1.03, 2.15). CONCLUSIONS Breast-feeding rates are low at 1 and 4 months of infant age in Beirut. Further research to investigate the interactions between female physicians and lactating mothers in maintaining breast-feeding in other populations is warranted. The results constitute the basis for designing interventions targeting policy makers, health professionals and mothers.

The distribution of new HIV infections by mode of exposure in Morocco

Objectives Building on a wealth of new empirical data, the objective of this study was to estimate the distribution of new HIV infections in Morocco by mode of exposure using the modes of transmission (MoT) mathematical model. Methods The MoT model was implemented within a collaboration with the Morocco Ministry of Health and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. The model was parameterised through a comprehensive review and synthesis of HIV and risk behaviour data in Morocco, mainly through the Middle East and North Africa HIV/AIDS Synthesis Project. Uncertainty analyses were used to assess the reliability of and uncertainty around our calculated estimates. Results Female sex workers (FSWs), clients of FSWs, men who have sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDUs) contributed 14%, 24%, 14% and 7% of new HIV infections, respectively. Two-thirds (67%) of new HIV infections occurred among FSWs, clients of FSWs, MSM and IDUs, or among the stable sexual partners of these populations. Casual heterosexual sex contributed 7% of HIV infections. More than half (52%) of HIV incidence is among females, but 71% of these infections are due to an infected spouse. The vast majority of HIV infections among men (89%) are due to high-risk behaviour. A very small HIV incidence is predicted to arise from medical injections or blood transfusions (0.1%). Conclusions The HIV epidemic in Morocco is driven by HIV incidence in high-risk population groups, with commercial heterosexual sex being the largest contributor to incidence. There is a need to focus HIV response more on these populations, mainly through proactive and sustainable HIV surveillance, and the expansion and increased geographical coverage of services such as condom promotion among FSWs, voluntary counselling and testing, harm reduction and treatment.

The epidemiology of HIV infection in Morocco: systematic review and data synthesis

Summary Morocco has made significant strides in building its HIV research capacity. Based on a wealth of empirical data, the objective of this study was to conduct a comprehensive and systematic literature review and analytical synthesis of HIV epidemiological evidence in this country. Data were retrieved using three major sources of literature and data. HIV transmission dynamics were found to be focused in high-risk populations, with female sex workers (FSWs) and clients contributing the largest share of new HIV infections. There is a pattern of emerging epidemics among some high-risk populations, and some epidemics, particularly among FSWs, appear to be established and stable. The scale of the local HIV epidemics and populations affected show highly heterogeneous geographical distribution. To optimize the national HIV response, surveillance and prevention efforts need to be expanded among high-risk populations and in geographic settings where low intensity and possibly concentrated HIV epidemics are emerging or are already endemic.

Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and incidence in the Horn of Africa sub-region of the Middle East and North Africa

BackgroundIn the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), hepatitis C virus (HCV) distribution appears to present a wide range of prevalence. The scale and nature of HCV disease burden is poorly known in the Horn of Africa sub-region of MENA including Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan in addition to Yemen at the southwest corner of the Arabian Peninsula. The aim of this review is to provide a systematic review and synthesis of all epidemiological data on HCV prevalence and incidence among the different population groups in this sub-region of MENA. A second aim of the study is to estimate the national population-level HCV prevalence for each of these four countries.Methods/designThe systematic review will be conducted based on the items outlined in the PRISMA statement. PubMed, Embase, and the World Health organization (WHO) regional databases will be searched for eligible studies without language or date restrictions. Observational and intervention studies reporting data on the prevalence or incidence of HCV in any population group in Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, or Yemen will be included. Additional sources will be obtained through the database of the MENA HIV/AIDS Epidemiology Synthesis Project, including international organizations’ reports and country-level reports, and abstracts of international conferences. Study and population characteristics will be extracted from eligible publications, with previously agreed pro formas; and entered into a computerized database. We will pool prevalence using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models after a Freeman-Tukey transformation to stabilize variances. We will conduct meta-regression analysis to explore the effect of study-level characteristics as potential sources of heterogeneity.DiscussionThis proposed systematic review and meta-analysis aims to better describe HCV infection distribution across countries in the Horn of Africa sub-region of MENA; and between sub-population groups within each country. The study will provide empirical evidence necessary for researchers, policy-makers, and public health stakeholders to set research, policy, and programming priorities for HCV prevention, control, and treatment.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42014010318