Yousra A. Mohamoud

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in Egypt: a systematic review and data synthesis

BackgroundEgypt has the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the world, estimated nationally at 14.7%. Our study’s objective was to delineate the evidence on the epidemiology of HCV infection among the different population groups in Egypt, and to draw analytical inferences about the nature of HCV transmission in this country.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of all data on HCV prevalence and incidence in Egypt following PRISMA guidelines. The main sources of data included PubMed and Embase databases. We also used a multivariate regression model to infer the temporal trend of HCV prevalence among the general population and high risk population in Egypt.ResultsWe identified 150 relevant records, four of which were incidence studies. HCV incidence ranged from 0.8 to 6.8 per 1,000 person-years. Overall, HCV prevalence among pregnant women ranged between 5-15%, among blood donors between 5-25%, and among other general population groups between 0-40%. HCV prevalence among multi-transfused patients ranged between 10-55%, among dialysis patients between 50-90%, and among other high risk populations between 10% and 85%. HCV prevalence varied widely among other clinical populations and populations at intermediate risk. Risk factors appear to be parenteral anti-schistosomal therapy, injections, transfusions, and surgical procedures, among others. Results of our time trend analysis suggest that there is no evidence of a statistically significant decline in HCV prevalence over time in both the general population (p-value: 0.215) and high risk population (p-value: 0.426).ConclusionsEgypt is confronted with an HCV disease burden of historical proportions that distinguishes this nation from others. A massive HCV epidemic at the national level must have occurred with substantial transmission still ongoing today. HCV prevention in Egypt must become a national priority. Policymakers, and public health and medical care stakeholders need to introduce and implement further prevention measures targeting the routes of HCV transmission.

Vertical Transmission of Hepatitis C Virus: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Updated pooled estimates of vertical hepatitis C (HCV) infection risk to children of HCV RNA–positive mothers ranges between 5.8% and 10.8%, depending on maternal HIV coinfection. Additional risk factors need to be captured and reported by future studies.

Vertical transmission of hepatitis C: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Updated pooled estimates of vertical hepatitis C (HCV) infection risk to children of HCV RNA–positive mothers ranges between 5.8% and 10.8%, depending on maternal HIV coinfection. Additional risk factors need to be captured and reported by future studies.

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in the Maghreb region: systematic review and meta-analyses.

Objective To systematically review and synthesize available epidemiological data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb region and to estimate the country-specific population-level HCV prevalence. Methods We conducted a systematic review of HCV antibody prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb countries as outlined by the PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were conducted using DerSimonian-Laird random-effect models with inverse variance weighting to pool HCV prevalence estimates among general population groups. Results We identified 133 HCV prevalence measures and two HCV incidence measures. Among high risk groups, HCV prevalence ranged between 22% and 94% among people who inject drugs, 20% and 76% among dialysis patients, and 2% and 51% among hemophiliacs. Among intermediate-risk groups, considerable but widely variable HCV prevalence was found. Most common risk factors cited across studies were the duration of dialysis, number of transfusions, and having a history of surgery or dental work. The national HCV prevalence in Algeria was estimated at 0.3% (95%CI: 0.1–0.5), Libya 1.2% (95%CI: 1.1–1.3), Mauritania 1.1% (95%CI: 0–2.3), Morocco 0.8% (95%CI: 0.5–1.2), and Tunisia 0.6% (95%CI: 0.5–0.8). Conclusions HCV prevalence in the Maghreb region of the Middle East and North Africa is comparable to that in developed countries of about 1%. HCV exposures appear often to be linked to medical care and are suggestive of ongoing transmission in such settings. Injecting drug use appears also to be a major, though not dominant, contributor to HCV transmission. Further research is needed to draw a more thorough understanding of HCV epidemiology, especially in the countries with limited number of studies. HCV prevention policy and programming in these countries should focus on the settings of exposure.

Investigating Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program Efficiency Gains through Subpopulation Prioritization: Insights from Application to Zambia.

Background Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are scaling-up voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) as an HIV intervention. Emerging challenges in these programs call for increased focus on program efficiency (optimizing program impact while minimizing cost). A novel analytic approach was developed to determine how subpopulation prioritization can increase program efficiency using an illustrative application for Zambia. Methods and Findings A population-level mathematical model was constructed describing the heterosexual HIV epidemic and impact of VMMC programs (age-structured mathematical (ASM) model). The model stratified the population according to sex, circumcision status, age group, sexual-risk behavior, HIV status, and stage of infection. A three-level conceptual framework was also developed to determine maximum epidemic impact and program efficiency through subpopulation prioritization, based on age, geography, and risk profile. In the baseline scenario, achieving 80% VMMC coverage by 2017 among males 15–49 year old, 12 VMMCs were needed per HIV infection averted (effectiveness). The cost per infection averted (cost-effectiveness) was USD

Epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in the Arabian Gulf countries: Systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence

1,089 and 306,000 infections were averted. Through age-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 11 (20–24 age-group) to 36 (45–49 age-group); cost-effectiveness ranged from

Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and incidence in the Horn of Africa sub-region of the Middle East and North Africa

888 (20–24 age-group) to

A Reevaluation of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Scale-Up Plan in Zimbabwe.

3,300 (45–49 age-group). Circumcising 10–14, 15–19, or 20–24 year old achieved the largest incidence rate reduction; prioritizing 15–24, 15–29, or 15–34 year old achieved the greatest program efficiency. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 9–12. Prioritizing Lusaka achieved the highest effectiveness. Through risk-group prioritization, prioritizing the highest risk group achieved the highest effectiveness, with only one VMMC needed per infection averted; the lowest risk group required 80 times more VMMCs. Conclusion Epidemic impact and efficiency of VMMC programs can be improved by prioritizing young males (sexually active or just before sexual debut), geographic areas with higher HIV prevalence than the national, and high sexual-risk groups.

Could Circumcision of HIV-Positive Males Benefit Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Programs in Africa? Mathematical Modeling Analysis

OBJECTIVE The aims of this study were to perform a systematic review and synthesize epidemiological data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the Arabian Gulf countries, and to assess the country-specific prevalence among nationals and expatriate populations. METHODS A systematic review of HCV antibody prevalence and incidence in the Arabian Gulf countries was conducted, based on the items outlined in the PRISMA statement. Meta-analyses were performed incorporating inverse variance weighting and using a random-effects model to pool summary estimates of HCV prevalence among general population groups, for nationals and the entire resident population. RESULTS A total of 557 prevalence measures and one incidence measure were identified for the Arabian Gulf countries. HCV prevalence among nationals was 0.24% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.63) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), 0.44% (95% CI 0.29-0.62) in Kuwait, 0.51% (95% CI 0.43-0.59) in Qatar, and 1.65% (95% CI 1.40-1.91) in Saudi Arabia. No data were available for Bahrain or Oman. Among the entire resident populations, HCV prevalence was 0.30% (95% CI 0.23-0.38) in Bahrain, 0.41% (95% CI 0.35-0.46) in Oman, 1.06% (95% CI 0.51-1.81) in Qatar, 1.45% (95% CI 0.75-2.34) in Kuwait, 1.63% (95% CI 1.42-1.84) in Saudi Arabia, and 1.64% (95% CI 0.96-2.49) in UAE. A higher prevalence was observed among expatriate populations such as Egyptians. Among the high-risk populations, HCV prevalence was as high as 78.6% in the multi-transfused and 74.6% in people who inject drugs. CONCLUSIONS National-level HCV prevalence in the Arabian Gulf region is comparable to global levels. A higher prevalence is found in specific expatriate populations, reflecting the prevalence in their countries of origin. Most exposures appear to occur in high-risk groups and these are often linked to medical care.

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in Egypt: a systematic review

BackgroundIn the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), hepatitis C virus (HCV) distribution appears to present a wide range of prevalence. The scale and nature of HCV disease burden is poorly known in the Horn of Africa sub-region of MENA including Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan in addition to Yemen at the southwest corner of the Arabian Peninsula. The aim of this review is to provide a systematic review and synthesis of all epidemiological data on HCV prevalence and incidence among the different population groups in this sub-region of MENA. A second aim of the study is to estimate the national population-level HCV prevalence for each of these four countries.Methods/designThe systematic review will be conducted based on the items outlined in the PRISMA statement. PubMed, Embase, and the World Health organization (WHO) regional databases will be searched for eligible studies without language or date restrictions. Observational and intervention studies reporting data on the prevalence or incidence of HCV in any population group in Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, or Yemen will be included. Additional sources will be obtained through the database of the MENA HIV/AIDS Epidemiology Synthesis Project, including international organizations’ reports and country-level reports, and abstracts of international conferences. Study and population characteristics will be extracted from eligible publications, with previously agreed pro formas; and entered into a computerized database. We will pool prevalence using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models after a Freeman-Tukey transformation to stabilize variances. We will conduct meta-regression analysis to explore the effect of study-level characteristics as potential sources of heterogeneity.DiscussionThis proposed systematic review and meta-analysis aims to better describe HCV infection distribution across countries in the Horn of Africa sub-region of MENA; and between sub-population groups within each country. The study will provide empirical evidence necessary for researchers, policy-makers, and public health stakeholders to set research, policy, and programming priorities for HCV prevention, control, and treatment.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42014010318