Gianluca Pescaroli

Critical infrastructure, panarchies and the vulnerability paths of cascading disasters

Cascading effects and cascading disasters are emerging fields of scientific research. The widespread diffusion of functional networks increases the complexity of interdependent systems and their vulnerability to large-scale disruptions. Although in recent years studies of interconnections and chain effects have improved significantly, cascading phenomena are often associated with the “toppling domino metaphor”, or with high-impact, low-probability events. This paper aimed to support a paradigm shift in the state of the art by proposing a new theoretical approach to cascading events in terms of their root causes and lack of predictability. By means of interdisciplinary theory building, we demonstrate how cascades reflect the ways in which panarchies collapse. We suggest that the vulnerability of critical infrastructure may orientate the progress of events in relation to society’s feedback loops, rather than merely being an effect of natural triggers. Our conclusions point to a paradigm shift in the preparedness phase that could include escalation points and social nodes, but that also reveals a brand new field of research for disaster scholars.

Implications of cascading effects for the EU Floods Directive

ABSTRACT The adoption of the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) represented a crucial improvement in the management of watercourses and coastlines. However, the beginning of a new phase of implementation requires the assessment of which emerging topics may be included in the review process. The aim of our research is to understand the existence of any legislative gaps that could limit the preparedness to cascading events and critical infrastructures breakdowns. First, we provide a review of the Floods Directive, the cascading phenomena and the vulnerability of critical infrastructures in the European legislation. Secondly, we analyse some case studies to test the present approach and to improve the work of decision makers. Our results suggest that the Floods Directive tends to focus on localized flood impacts at smaller time scale and it could be ineffective to address the cross-scale impact of cascading events. Although some of the corrective actions may not be of competence of the Directive, we argue that their inclusion could limit uncertainties in the attribution of responsibilities and the coordination among different institutional levels.

How critical infrastructure orients international relief in cascading disasters

Critical infrastructure and facilities are central assets in modern societies, but their impact on international disaster relief remains mostly associated with logistics challenges. The emerging literature on cascading disasters suggests the need to integrate the nonlinearity of events in the analyses. This article investigates three case studies: the 2002 floods in the Czech Republic, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima meltdown in Japan. We explore how the failure of critical infrastructure can orient international disaster relief by shifting its priorities during the response. We argue that critical infrastructure can influence aid request and delivery, changing needs to address the cascades, and contain cascading technology-based events. The conclusions propose remaining challenges with applying our findings.

Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks: A Holistic Framework: A Holistic Framework for Understanding Complex Risks

In recent years, there has been a gradual increase in research literature on the challenges of interconnected, compound, interacting, and cascading risks. These concepts are becoming ever more central to the resilience debate. They aggregate elements of climate change adaptation, critical infrastructure protection, and societal resilience in the face of complex, high-impact events. However, despite the potential of these concepts to link together diverse disciplines, scholars and practitioners need to avoid treating them in a superficial or ambiguous manner. Overlapping uses and definitions could generate confusion and lead to the duplication of research effort. This article gives an overview of the state of the art regarding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks. It is intended to help build a coherent basis for the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The main objective is to propose a holistic framework that highlights the complementarities of the four kinds of complex risk in a manner that is designed to support the work of researchers and policymakers. This article suggests how compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks could be used, with little or no redundancy, as inputs to new analyses and decisional tools designed to support the implementation of the SFDRR. The findings can be used to improve policy recommendations and support tools for emergency and crisis management, such as scenario building and impact trees, thus contributing to the achievement of a system-wide approach to resilience.

Managing Human Factors

For critical infrastructures (CI), technology solutions have been the preferred choice so far. Yet, the human component of CI could be the primary cause of events causing a less than resilient performance of a CI system. This chapter introduces a systemic approach that contextualizes cascading dynamics in the vulnerability of both technological and human elements. It is followed by a description of the evolution of critical infrastructure and management, envisioned as root causes of cascades effects, and explains the role of the human factor in that process. This chapter highlights why investments in technological resilience of cyber assets cannot do without the integration of its human component. Indeed, consensus is growing among security experts that the weakest link in the security chain is the human being, whether as users, customers, administrators, or managers. The technological progress needs to be followed step by step by improvements in users/operators’ skills and routines, adjusting their ability to improvise and resilience.