Gill Plunkett

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

A delayed climatic response to solar forcing at 2800 cal. BP: multiproxy evidence from three Irish peatlands

Multiproxy palaeohydrological records from three raised bogs in Northern Ireland indicate that a major shift to wetter/cooler climatic conditions postdated the rapid decrease in solar activity at 2800 cal. BP by ~100 years. This event is bracketed by two wiggle-match radiocarbon-dated cryptotephra layers in each profile, enabling a high degree of chronological precision. These replicated data corroborate previous findings based on Irish peat humification profiles, and may indicate spatial complexity in the climatic response to solar activity between oceanic and continental areas.

Transatlantic distribution of the Alaskan White River Ash

Volcanic ash layers preserved within the geologic record represent precise time markers that correlate disparate depositional environments and enable the investigation of synchronous and/or asynchronous behaviors in Earth system and archaeological sciences. However, it is generally assumed that only exceptionally powerful events, such as supereruptions (≥450 km3 of ejecta as dense-rock equivalent; recurrence interval of ∼105 yr), distribute ash broadly enough to have an impact on human society, or allow us to address geologic, climatic, and cultural questions on an intercontinental scale. Here we use geochemical, age, and morphological evidence to show that the Alaskan White River Ash (eastern lobe; A.D. 833–850) correlates to the “AD860B” ash (A.D. 846–848) found in Greenland and northern Europe. These occurrences represent the distribution of an ash over 7000 km, linking marine, terrestrial, and ice-core records. Our results indicate that tephra from more moderate-size eruptions, with recurrence intervals of ∼100 yr, can have substantially greater distributions than previously thought, with direct implications for volcanic dispersal studies, correlation of widely distributed proxy records, and volcanic hazard assessment.

A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe

The ash cloud resulting from the A.D. 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland caused severe disruption to air travel across Europe, but as a geological event it is not unprecedented. Analysis of peats and lake sediments from northern Europe has revealed the presence of microscopic layers of Icelandic volcanic ash (tephra). These sedimentary records, together with historical records of Holocene ash falls, demonstrate that Icelandic volcanoes have generated substantial ash clouds that reached northern Europe many times. Here we present the first comprehensive compilation of sedimentary and historical records of ash-fall events in northern Europe, spanning the past 7000 yr. Ash-fall events appear to have been more frequent in the past 1500 yr. It is unclear whether this reflects a true increase in eruption frequency or dispersal, or is an artifact of the records or the way in which they have been generated. In the past 1000 yr, volcanic ash clouds reached northern Europe with a mean return interval of 56 ± 9 yr (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 115 yr). Probabilistic modeling using the ash records for the last millennium indicates that for any 10 yr period there is a 16% probability of a tephra fallout event in northern Europe. These values must be considered as conservative estimates due to the nature of tephra capture and preservation in the sedimentary record.

Ash from Changbaishan Millennium eruption recorded in Greenland ice: Implications for determining the eruption's timing and impact

Major volcanic eruptions can impact on global climate by injecting large quantities of aerosols and ash into the atmosphere that alter the radiative balance and chemical equilibrium of the stratosphere. The Millennium eruption of Tianchi (Paektu), China/North Korea, was one of the largest Late Holocene eruptions. Uncertainty about the precise timing of the eruption has hindered the recognition of its climate impact in palaeoclimate and historical records. Here we report the compelling identification of the eruptions volcanic signal in Greenland ice cores through the association of geochemically characterized volcanic glass, represented in by bimodal populations that compare with proximal material from the source eruption. The eruption most probably occurred in the A.D. 940s, 7 years after the Eldgja eruption on Iceland. We examine the eruptions potential for climate forcing using the sulfate records from the ice cores and conclude that it was unlikely to have had a global or extraregional impact.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

Significance The impact of rapid climate change on humans is of contemporary global interest. Present-day debates are necessarily informed by paleoclimate studies in which climate is often assumed, without sufficient critical attention, to be the primary driver of societal change. Using new methods to analyze paleoclimatic and archeological datasets, we overturn the deterministic idea that population collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age was caused by rapid climate change. Our work demonstrates the necessity of high-precision chronologies in evaluating human responses to rapid climate change. It will be significant for geoscientists, climate change scientists, and archeologists. The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Testing the palaeoclimatic significance of the Northern Irish bog oak record

We present an analysis of the Northern Irish bog oak record presented in Turney et al. (2005) for the last 4500 years. The record is compared with a compiled peatland water table record from the same region and palaeohydrological data from northern England and mid-latitude Europe. It is apparent that there is no consistent relationship between the population frequency of Irish bog oaks and the palaeohydrological reconstructions, illustrating that the record is not reflecting wetness changes in peatlands. We suggest that the bog oaks should be scrutinised on a within-site and a site-by-site basis to assess the spatial coherency of the shifts in tree populations and the synchronicity of phases of germination and dying off (GDO). Further work is needed to critically examine the controls on the establishment and demise of bog oaks on Irish peatlands before these data can be used as a palaeoclimate proxy. Only then can they be used to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change.

The Food Economies of Atlantic Island Monasteries: The Documentary and Archaeo-Environmental Evidence

Abstract Much of our knowledge of Early Medieval monastic economies is based on contemporary documentary sources. Until recently, this literary record has had little in the way of useful archaeo-environmental data to support it. This paper examines the unusually rich environmental remains recovered from the excavations at two early island monasteries – Iona, in the Inner Hebrides, and Illaunloughan, Co. Kerry. The assemblages present a key opportunity to compare and contrast the literary accounts of the monastic diet with the physical evidence, and offer new insights into the economy of early monasteries. We conclude that the archaeological record indicates a much wider food base than previously documented, demonstrating the importance of integrating both strands of evidence.

Asynchrony in key Holocene chronologies: Evidence from Irish bog pines

The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the radiocarbon calibration curve (IntCal) are the foremost time scales used in paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental studies of the most recent 10 k.y. Due to varying and often insufficient dating resolution, opportunities to test the synchrony of these two influential chronologies are rare. Here we present evidence for a phase of major pine recruitment on Irish bogs at ca. 8160 yr B.P. Dendrochronological dating of subfossil trees from three sites reveals synchronicity in germination across the study area, indicative of a regional forcing. The concurrent colonization of pine on peatland is interpreted in terms of drier surface conditions and provides the first substantive proxy data in support of a significant hydroclimatic change in the north of Ireland accompanying the 8.2 ka climate cooling event. The date of pine establishment does not overlap with the GICC05 age range for the event, and possible lags between responses are unlikely to explain the full difference. In light of recent studies highlighting a possible offset in GICC05 and IntCal dates, the Irish pine record supports the notion of ice core dates being too early during the period of study. If the suggested discrepancy in timing is an artifact of chronological error, it is likely to have affected interpretations of previous proxy comparisons and alignments.

Multi-proxy dating of Iceland’s major pre-settlement Katla eruption to 822–823 CE

U. Buntgen received funding from the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR within the National Sustainability Program I (NPU I; GN LO1415), and additional support was provided by NSF grant 0909541. We are particularly thankful to the NEEM project and its participants.