Graeme T. Swindles

A delayed climatic response to solar forcing at 2800 cal. BP: multiproxy evidence from three Irish peatlands

Multiproxy palaeohydrological records from three raised bogs in Northern Ireland indicate that a major shift to wetter/cooler climatic conditions postdated the rapid decrease in solar activity at 2800 cal. BP by ~100 years. This event is bracketed by two wiggle-match radiocarbon-dated cryptotephra layers in each profile, enabling a high degree of chronological precision. These replicated data corroborate previous findings based on Irish peat humification profiles, and may indicate spatial complexity in the climatic response to solar activity between oceanic and continental areas.

A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe

The ash cloud resulting from the A.D. 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland caused severe disruption to air travel across Europe, but as a geological event it is not unprecedented. Analysis of peats and lake sediments from northern Europe has revealed the presence of microscopic layers of Icelandic volcanic ash (tephra). These sedimentary records, together with historical records of Holocene ash falls, demonstrate that Icelandic volcanoes have generated substantial ash clouds that reached northern Europe many times. Here we present the first comprehensive compilation of sedimentary and historical records of ash-fall events in northern Europe, spanning the past 7000 yr. Ash-fall events appear to have been more frequent in the past 1500 yr. It is unclear whether this reflects a true increase in eruption frequency or dispersal, or is an artifact of the records or the way in which they have been generated. In the past 1000 yr, volcanic ash clouds reached northern Europe with a mean return interval of 56 ± 9 yr (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 115 yr). Probabilistic modeling using the ash records for the last millennium indicates that for any 10 yr period there is a 16% probability of a tephra fallout event in northern Europe. These values must be considered as conservative estimates due to the nature of tephra capture and preservation in the sedimentary record.

Testing peatland testate amoeba transfer functions: Appropriate methods for clustered training-sets

Transfer functions are widely used in palaeoecology to infer past environmental conditions from fossil remains of many groups of organisms. In contrast to traditional training-set design with one observation per site, some training-sets, including those for peatland testate amoeba-hydrology transfer functions, have a clustered structure with many observations from each site. Here we show that this clustered design causes standard performance statistics to be overly optimistic. Model performance when applied to independent data sets is considerably weaker than suggested by statistical cross-validation. We discuss the reasons for these problems and describe leave-one-site-out cross-validation and the cluster bootstrap as appropriate methods for clustered training-sets. Using these methods we show that the performance of most testate amoeba-hydrology transfer functions is worse than previously assumed and reconstructions are more uncertain.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

Significance The impact of rapid climate change on humans is of contemporary global interest. Present-day debates are necessarily informed by paleoclimate studies in which climate is often assumed, without sufficient critical attention, to be the primary driver of societal change. Using new methods to analyze paleoclimatic and archeological datasets, we overturn the deterministic idea that population collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age was caused by rapid climate change. Our work demonstrates the necessity of high-precision chronologies in evaluating human responses to rapid climate change. It will be significant for geoscientists, climate change scientists, and archeologists. The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Ecology of Testate Amoebae in Moorland with a Complex Fire History: Implications for Ecosystem Monitoring and Sustainable Land Management

Testate amoebae represent a crucial component of soil microfauna and have been studied extensively in ombrotrophic peatlands. However, little is known about their ecology in moorlands which are important habitats in terms of biodiversity and carbon storage potential. Moorlands are under threat from a range of factors such as drainage, burning, over grazing, pollution and climate change. In this study we investigate testate amoebae communities within three zones of a UK moorland characterised by contrasting fire histories, and use these data to examine the potential of testate amoebae as environmental bioindicators in moorlands. Although several factors control testate amoebae communities in moorlands, it is clear that there are marked differences in testate amoebae communities between the zones which primarily relate to hydrological status, influenced by fire regime. The taxon Hyalosphenia subflava is a clear indicator of severe disturbance as it was found to be abundant in mosses which colonised a hydrophobic peat surface following a severe wild-fire event. Testate amoebae have much potential for ecosystem monitoring of moorlands which can inform sustainable land management practices.

Ecology of testate amoebae in an Amazonian peatland and development of a transfer function for palaeohydrological reconstruction.

Tropical peatlands represent globally important carbon sinks with a unique biodiversity and are currently threatened by climate change and human activities. It is now imperative that proxy methods are developed to understand the ecohydrological dynamics of these systems and for testing peatland development models. Testate amoebae have been used as environmental indicators in ecological and palaeoecological studies of peatlands, primarily in ombrotrophic Sphagnum-dominated peatlands in the mid- and high-latitudes. We present the first ecological analysis of testate amoebae in a tropical peatland, a nutrient-poor domed bog in western (Peruvian) Amazonia. Litter samples were collected from different hydrological microforms (hummock to pool) along a transect from the edge to the interior of the peatland. We recorded 47 taxa from 21 genera. The most common taxa are Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda type, Phryganella acropodia, Pseudodifflugia fulva type and Trinema lineare. One species found only in the southern hemisphere, Argynnia spicata, is present. Arcella spp., Centropyxis aculeata and Lesqueresia spiralis are indicators of pools containing standing water. Canonical correspondence analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling illustrate that water table depth is a significant control on the distribution of testate amoebae, similar to the results from mid- and high-latitude peatlands. A transfer function model for water table based on weighted averaging partial least-squares (WAPLS) regression is presented and performs well under cross-validation (rapparent2=0.76,RMSE=4.29;rjack2=0.68,RMSEP=5.18

The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming.

^{2}_{apparent} \,=\, 0.76, \text {RMSE} \,=\, 4.29; \mathrm {r}^{2}_{jack} \,=\, 0.68, \text {RMSEP} \,=\, 5.18

Spheroidal carbonaceous particles are a defining stratigraphic marker for the Anthropocene

). The transfer function was applied to a 1-m peat core, and sample-specific reconstruction errors were generated using bootstrapping. The reconstruction generally suggests near-surface water tables over the last 3,000 years, with a shift to drier conditions at c. cal. 1218-1273 AD.

Untangling climate signals from autogenic changes in long-term peatland development

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms.

Diversity, distribution and biogeography of testate amoebae in China: Implications for ecological studies in Asia

There has been recent debate over stratigraphic markers used to demarcate the Anthropocene from the Holocene Epoch. However, many of the proposed markers are found only in limited areas of the world or do not reflect human impacts on the environment. Here we show that spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs), a distinct form of black carbon produced from burning fossil fuels in energy production and heavy industry, provide unambiguous stratigraphic markers of the human activities that have rapidly changed planet Earth over the last century. SCPs are found in terrestrial and marine sediments or ice cores in every continent, including remote areas such as the high Arctic and Antarctica. The rapid increase in SCPs mostly occurs in the mid-twentieth century and is contemporaneous with the ‘Great Acceleration’. It therefore reflects the intensification of fossil fuel usage and can be traced across the globe. We integrate global records of SCPs and propose that the global rapid increase in SCPs in sedimentary records can be used to inform a Global Standard Stratigraphic Age for the Anthropocene. A high-resolution SCP sequence from a lake or peatland may provide the much-needed ‘Golden Spike’ (Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point).