Giovanni Circella

Commuter impacts and behavior changes during a temporary freeway closure: the ‘Fix I-5’ project in Sacramento, California

One mile of Interstate 5 (I-5) in downtown Sacramento, California was closed intermittently for reconstruction (‘the Fix project’) over nine weeks in 2008. We analyze the impacts of the Fix on commuters’ travel behavior, as measured through two contemporaneous Internet-based surveys. The impacts of the Fix on traffic conditions do not appear to have been excessive: majorities in all relevant subsamples did not find conditions worse than usual, and sizable minorities actually found them to be better. Among the active changes to commute trips, the easiest options – avoiding rush hour and changing route – were the most common (adopted by 48% and 44%, respectively). Among the changes that reduced vehicle-miles traveled, increasing transit use and increasing telecommuting (TC) were the most common (each adopted by 5–6% of the relevant subsample). Binary logit models of these two choices suggest that persuading current adopters to increase their frequency of use is easier than convincing nonadopters to start TC or switch to transit. Women and those in larger households were found to be more likely to increase TC and transit use. Employer support of commute alternatives significantly influenced the adoption of both strategies.

A hybrid approach to combine fuzziness and randomness in travel choice prediction

Abstract Several approaches have been developed in order to deal with uncertainty, in the prediction of travellers’ choices. Uncertainty almost always affects travel alternatives in several different choice contexts. However, the way in which this uncertainty affects choice options may consistently vary. Two main types of uncertainty can be identified: randomness and fuzziness. This paper discusses the use of a hybrid approach for choice modelling of travellers’ behaviour in choice contexts that involve conditions of high variability and uncertainty. The aim of the work is to implement a hybrid methodology, based on the use of a two-term hybrid utility, which allows taking into account, at the same time, the effects of both random and fuzzy uncertainty on travellers’ choice behaviour. An application of the proposed methodology to a transit choice context is then presented.

Keeping Vehicle Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Check in a Driverless Vehicle World

INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION STUDIES Policy Brief In November 2016, the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis (ITS- Davis) convened leading academic, government, private industry, and public interest stakeholders to explore science-based policies that could steer the three transportation revolutions- shared mobility, electrification, and autonomous vehicles, toward the public interest. This policy brief reflects the opinions of the authors and not UC Davis. This brief is one in a series that presents a range of policy concepts, recommendations and research needs discussed at the 3 Revolutions Conference. Contact: Mollie D’Agostino mdagostino@ucdavis.edu with additional questions. Visit: 3rev.ucdavis.edu for additional policy briefs, event alerts, and news. April 2017 Keeping Vehicle Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Check in a Driverless Vehicle World Co-Authors: Giovanni Circella, University of California at Davis Chris Ganson, Governor’s Office of Planning and Research* Caroline Rodier, University of California at Davis *For identification purposes only Summary of Policy Recommendations To support VMT and GHG containment goals: 1. Deploy driverless vehicles as shared use vehicles, rather than privately owned 2. Ensure widespread carpooling 3. Deploy driverless vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions 4. Take advantage of opportunities to introduce pricing 5. Increase line haul transit use rather than replacing it 6. Ensure driverless vehicles are not larger or more energy consumptive 7. Program vehicle behavior to improve livability, safety and comfort on surface streets Introduction Driverless vehicles are likely to profoundly affect transportation patterns and ultimately reshape cities. Their deployment creates substantial risk to vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) containment, but also substantial opportunity. Driverless technology could be deployed along very divergent pathways, and at this early stage, policy has the opportunity to affect which path is taken. Because California is at the INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION STUDIES Project ID 2017-07

Exploring the Self-Reported Long-Distance Travel Frequency of Millennials and Generation X in California

Long-distance travel research is limited because of the lack of robust data and the complexity of defining a long-distance trip. The patterns of infrequent long-distance trips are poorly understood especially compared with the better studied (and understood) local daily travel patterns. This study contributes to filling that gap by investigating the factors that affect the frequency of long-distance trips of Californian millennials (18–34 years old, in 2015) and members of the preceding Generation X (35–50 years old, in 2015). Data collected with an online survey administered in fall 2015 are used to study the mobility of these age groups. The survey collected information on several travel-related variables, including the number of long-distance trips (defined as trips longer than 100 miles, one way) made by various modes during the previous 12 months. The authors estimate six negative binomial regression models of long-distance travel separated by purpose (business or leisure) and mode (overall travel versus air). The study explores the relationship of long-distance trip formation with several sociodemographic, land use, and attitudinal variables. Consistent with expectations, individual income positively affects the number of long-distance trips made by each individual. Among the attitudinal variables, the individuals who are adventurers, have higher “variety seeking” attitudes and are more interested in adopting new technologies are found to make a larger number of long-distance trips. However, those who prefer to shop in brick-and-mortar stores rather than online are found to have lower levels of long-distance travel.

ICT-Dependent Life and Its Impacts on Mobility

The rapid development of information and communication technology (ICT) is revolutionizing people’s lives in many ways. Among their numerous impacts, ICT solutions allow for more flexibility in individuals’ schedules, and provide new alternatives for the organization of work, social and recreational activities. Several types of relationships are possible between the adoption of ICT and travel behavior, leading to the eventual complementarity with, substitution of, modification of, or neutrality with travel. Modern technologies play an important role in affecting individuals’ long- and medium-term decisions as well as numerous daily choices. The application of information and communication technologies is also behind the introduction of new shared mobility services that were barely imaginable only a few years ago. These services expand the set of travel options available to individuals. The effects of the availability and adoption of these technologies on individual behaviors are still largely unclear. They will likely cause long-lasting impacts on travel patterns, vehicle ownership, and life organization.

Impact of Proposed Land Use and Transportation Investments on Future Travel Patterns in California

This study investigated the potential changes in transportation patterns in California associated with the development of smart growth–inspired transportation and land use policies through the application of the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM). Californias SB (Senate Bill) 375 requires the states metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to develop sustainable community strategies (SCS) in their regional transportation plans (RTPs) in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, among other environmental goals, through the integration of land use and transportation planning. Although some SCS were still under development at the time this study was conducted, some concerns had already been raised about whether these proposed policies would be able to achieve the proposed environmental targets. In this study, future transportation demand in California in 2035 was simulated through the application of the CSTDM and the simulation of policy scenarios inspired by the SCS developed before February 2014 by local MPOs. The study provides insights into how proposed land use changes and planned transportation investments would affect both regional and interregional mobility patterns in California. The expected impacts of the proposed policies were compared with a more conservative control scenario based on the previous RTPs developed by MPOs before the introduction of the SCS. Reductions of vehicle miles traveled per capita were predicted for all regions that had developed SCS, with greater reductions in larger metropolitan areas.

Envisioning Parking Strategies in the Framework of Sustainable Urban Transport

Parking policies and regulations are important tools in planning for the governance of urban mobility. The proper design and location of parking facilities, in fact, contributes to an efficient use of the transportation system (or it may reduce its efficiency, when these infrastructures are not properly planned). This paper discusses the role of parking as part of the policy packages for strategic planning aimed at increasing the sustainability of urban and metropolitan areas. In particular, the integration of parking strategies in a comprehensive vision for the future of a city may significantly improve the allocation of resources and the reduction of the overall environmental externalities. The role of parking in the strategic planning of cities is discussed through the analysis of several recent projects in the city of Bari (Italy). The paper discusses the way these projects are linked (or eventually not linked) to broader strategies for urban mobility, and how they might be coordinated into policy packages that promote more sustainable transportation. The use of an integrated land use transportation modeling approach to simulate the long-term evolution of the urban area may significantly contribute to estimate the long-term effects of the proposed policies. This approach may successfully support the process of policy evaluation and the selection of the optimal strategies to implement.