Giovanni Ursino

Underweighting rare events in experience based decisions: Beyond sample error

Recent research has focused on the “description-experience gap”: while rare events are overweighted in description based decisions, people tend to behave as if they underweight rare events in decisions based on experience. Barron and Erev (2003) and Hertwig, Barron, Weber and Elke (2004) argue that such findings are substantive and call for a theory of decision making under risk other than Prospect Theory for decisions from experience. Fox and Hadar (2006) suggest that the discrepancy is due to sampling error: people are likely to sample rare events less often than objective probability implies, especially if their samples are small. A strand of papers has responded examining the necessity of sample error in the underweighting of rare events. The current paper extends the results of such contributions and further strengthens the evidence on underweighting. The first experiment shows that the discrepancy persists even when people sample the entire population of outcomes and make a decision under risk rather than under uncertainty. A reanalysis of Barron and Erev (2003) further reveals that the gap persists even when subjects observe the expected frequency of rare events. The second experiment shows that the gap exists in a repeated decision making paradigm that controls for sample biases and the “hot stove” effect. Moreover, while underweighting persists in actual choices, overweighting is observed in judged probabilities. The results of the two experiments strengthen the suggestion that descriptive theories of choice that assume overweighting of small probabilities are not useful in describing decisions from experience. This is true even when there is no sample error, for both decisions under risk and for repeated choices.

Deceptive Advertising with Rational Buyers

We study a game in which two competing sellers supplying experience goods of different quality can induce a perspective buyer into a bad purchase through (costly) deceptive advertising. We characterize the equilibrium set of the game and argue that an important class of these outcomes features pooling behavior at the pricing stage while requiring low quality sellers to air false claims about their product. These claims deceive the buyer and induce a bad purchase with positive probability. Although the low-quality product is purchased with positive probability in these equilibria, the buyers (expected) utility can be higher than in a fully separating equilibrium. This result suggests that, surprisingly, deceptive practices may actually enhance competition. Finally, we characterize the optimal deterrence by a regulatory agency that seeks to punish deceptive practices. We show that consumer surplus maximization requires lower deterrence than social welfare maximization. The analysis is robust to various extensions.

Supply Chain Control: A Theory of Vertical Integration

Abstract Improving a company’s bargaining position is often cited as a chief motivation to vertically integrate with suppliers. This paper expands on that view in building a new theory of vertical integration. In my model firms integrate to gain bargaining power against other suppliers in the production process. The cost of integration is a loss of flexibility in choosing the most suitable suppliers for a particular final product. I show that the firms who make the most specific investments in the production process have the greatest incentive to integrate. The theory provides novel insights into the understanding of numerous stylized facts such as the effect of financial development on the vertical structure of firms, the observed pattern from FDI to outsourcing in international trade, and the effect of technological obsolescence on organizations.

Making Sense of (Ultra) Low-Cost Flights Vertical Differentiation in Two-Sided Markets

The business model of low-cost carriers is now well established and accounts for a large share of Western civil aviation, particularly in Europe. To understand why it has proven so successful, we develop a theoretical model that exploits the two-sided nature of flights as connectors of supply and demand for goods and services other than traveling itself across physical space. Carriers offer flights of different quality and may sign agreements with suppliers of goods and services at the destination so as to subsidize and foster demand from the carriers’ travelers as in standard two-sided markets. Customers/travelers care about home and destination consumption and about the flight’s quality. Hence, beyond the thickness of the connected sides of the market, the quality of the airline platform has an intrinsic value to travelers. We show that only low-income travelers fly with low-cost airlines, while no-frills carriers are more likely to act as a platform than legacy airlines. We study how the degree of subs...