Girish J. Gulati

Social networks in political campaigns: Facebook and the congressional elections of 2006 and 2008

This study examines the early adoption and dissemination of emerging technology tools in campaigns by analyzing which candidates were the most likely to adopt and use Facebook in the 2006 and 2008 elections to the US House of Representatives. The research hypotheses draw primarily from the diffusion of innovation literature. Our analysis of 802 candidates in 2006 and 816 candidates in 2008 indicates that Facebook adoption diffused rapidly between 2006 and 2008, with party (Democrats), competition, money and the level of education in the district explaining both adoption and implementation. Challengers and candidates for open seats were more likely to be early adopters, but incumbents used Facebook more extensively. Both higher adoption rates by peers or competitors in the candidate’s own state and a propensity to adopt earlier campaign technologies are strong positive motivators for early adoption, but irrelevant to usage.

Closing the Gap, Raising the Bar

This article examines online campaigning for the U.S. Congress in 2006. Increases in web presence have slowed, but with minor-party candidates closing the gap with major-party candidates in Senate races. A content analysis of the campaign web sites of every Senate and House candidate reveals that baseline informational web content and features have become standardized but that Senate sites are more sophisticated technologically. Multivariate analyses reveal that financial resources underwrite the highest levels of content and constitute a moving hurdle for disadvantaged candidates. Democrats, Greens, and challengers demonstrated more interest in relationship building, and the competitiveness of the race increased the likelihood of using the web site for mobilizing supporters. Features and functionality that allow citizens to coproduce content and interact in two-way communication are not being adopted widely, and it is an open question how candidates might integrate new social networking tools into their campaign strategies.

Social Media and Campaign 2012: Developments and Trends for Facebook Adoption

Diffusion of innovation theory is used to explain adoption of Facebook in the 2012 campaigns for the U.S. Congress and to identify characteristics that differentiate the small subset of candidates who did not create a Facebook presence from the large majority who did. Models of Facebook adoption for House candidates reveal that there are no differences between Republicans and Democrats. Nonadopters are significantly more likely to be challengers or open-seat candidates, poorly financed candidates, candidates in noncompetitive races, and older. Among nonincumbents, Republicans, and candidates from Republican-oriented districts are more likely to adopt. This study serves as one of the first examinations of social media adoption by congressional candidates in the 2012 elections and discusses relevant developments and trends in adoption since Facebook’s introduction in 2006.

Predictors of on-line services and e-participation: A cross-national comparison

Abstract Effective e-government creates an environment for citizens to have greater access to their government and, in theory, makes citizen-to-government contact more inclusive. Our research examines two distinct but related measures of e-government effectiveness, namely the online service index and the e-participation index, both reported in the 2010 e-government survey conducted by the United Nations. We analyze the impact of political structure, public sector performance and policy initiatives on both indices in more than 150 countries. Our multiple regression analysis shows that there is greater e-government capability in countries that have more effective public sector governance and administration, and policies that advance the development and diffusion of information and communication technologies. More democratic institutions and processes, however, appear to have a negative impact on e-government. In addition, countries that practice effective governance and promote competition in the telecommunications sector demonstrate more extensive provision of e-participation. These results suggest that the path to e-government leverages different strategies depending on a nations political structure, and that authoritarian countries may be utilizing e-government to maintain the status quo.

Different Paths to Broadband Access: The Impact of Governance and Policy on Broadband Diffusion in the Developed and Developing Worlds

A new digital divide is emerging both within and between nations that is due to inequalities in broadband Internet access. Our research examines the broadband digital divide by analyzing the impact of administrative culture and policy initiatives in the form of strategic planning, execution, regulation and investment on broadband diffusion in 139 countries. Our multiple regression analysis shows that factors that determine broadband diffusion in technologically developed countries do not necessarily have the same impact in less developed countries. For example, competition in the telecommunications sector has a positive impact in nations where access to information and communication technologies (ICTs) is expanding, but does not make a significant difference where ICT access is widely available. We also show that when controlling for measures of economic, political, social and educational development, there is greater broadband diffusion in countries that have an administrative culture of sound governance and make a higher shared financial investment in information and communication technologies. These results hold in nations where access to ICTs is expanding, even though the presence of a national telecommunications regulatory authority has a negative impact on broadband diffusion in the same group of countries. Our results suggest that the path to widespread availability and use of broadband requires different strategies depending on a nations level of technological development. Furthermore, assessing overall government performance in terms of governance and policy initiatives on this journey is more important than factors such as the presence or absence of a national regulatory authority.

Towards E-participation in the Middle East and Northern Europe

E-governance is important for enabling governments to communicate with and serve their citizens. In this chapter, we determine critical success factors for and obstacles to effective e-governance in two very different regions of the world, namely, the Middle East and Northern Europe. Specifically, we explore e-participation in Bahrain, Egypt, Estonia, and Finland. These four countries are interesting cases because they have quite different types of government, yet, according to recent United Nations data, each has succeeded in their development of e-government capabilities. However, the degree to which this development has translated into effective e-participation varies significantly between these countries. We propose a framework for assessing the strategy, policies, and context within which e-governance is being developed and apply this framework to examine e-participation in each country. Using this framework, we show that an administrative culture of high-quality governance is critical to the success of e-participation initiatives. Our research also suggests that factors which promote online citizen participation in the political process include a government commitment to e-government, policies that encourage e-participation, and investment in e-governance and information and communication technology (ICT) development. Sometimes these conditions are satisfied but e-participation falls short of expectations. We present evidence that this short-fall often reflects problems in the offline relationship between governments and their citizens.

VODYS: An Agent-Based Model for Exploring Campaign Dynamics

The literature on campaigns has considered a number of factors that affect whether and how someone votes, including demographics, campaign strategies, and social milieu. Understanding the dynamics of campaigns, however, is complicated by the fact that researchers cannot observe much of what happens during an election cycle. Typically, studies rely on voter recollections of conversations, contacts, and media exposure. In addition, because data are collected at discrete points in time, most models of voter turnout cannot capture the dynamic nature of an individual’s interactions during a campaign cycle. Agent-based models offer a way to overcome these data limitations by allowing us to model the dynamics of voter turnout over the course of many weeks as individuals move back and forth between home and work environments, interacting with neighbors and colleagues. In this article, the authors present an agent-based model of campaign dynamics, VODYS, and conduct three simulations to demonstrate the utility of agent-based models for exploring the effects of contact and context on political behavior.

Predictors of on-line services and e-participation: a cross-national comparison

Effective e-government creates an environment for citizens to have greater access to their government and, in theory, makes citizen-to-government contact more inclusive. Our research examines two distinct but related measures of e-government effectiveness, namely the online service index and the e-participation index, both reported in the 2010 e-government survey conducted by the United Nations. We analyze the impact of political structure, administrative culture and policy initiatives on both indices in more than 150 countries. Our multiple regression analysis shows that there is greater e-government capability in countries that have an administrative culture of sound governance and policies that advance the development and diffusion of information and communication technologies. More democratic institutions and processes, however, appear to have a negative impact on e-government. In addition, countries that practice effective governance and promote competition in the telecommunications sector demonstrate more extensive provision of e-participation. These results suggest that the path to e-government leverages different strategies depending on a nations political structure, and that authoritarian countries may be utilizing e-government to maintain the status quo.

Explaining the Global Digital Divide: The Impact of Public Policy Initiatives on Digital Opportunity and ICT Development

The development of affordable information and communication technologies (ICTs) over the past 25 years has created an environment for people across the globe to have greater access to telecommunication and Internet services. Much of the previous research suggests that these technological advances have mostly exacerbated existing inequalities between developed and developing nations and created new inequalities within societies between the information rich and poor. There seems to be very little research, however, that provides comprehensive explanations for the global digital divide and, in particular, the impact of national public policy initiatives that seek to expand access to ICTs. Most of these studies have tended to be either largely descriptive, qualitative case studies, or quantitative analyses that have had a very narrow concept of ICTs. Our research examines the digital divide by analyzing the impact of national policies in the form of strategic planning, regulation and investment on the International Telecommunications Unions Digital Opportunity Index and ICT access and use indicators in approximately 150 countries. Our multivariate regression analysis shows that when controlling for measures of economic, political, social and educational development, there is greater digital opportunity and greater overall technology adoption and use in countries that have competition to provide basic telecommunication services and make a higher financial investment in ICT development.

Understanding the Impact of Policy, Regulation and Governance on Mobile Broadband Diffusion

In information and communication technologies (ICTs) have created a global environment in which citizens from more developed countries have greater access to mobile broadband Internet services. The research question posed in this study is: Do national policy initiatives, regulatory measures, or governance practices increase a nations mobile broadband diffusion? There is little research that has analyzed the impact of these factors on bridging the mobile broadband digital divide in highly developed or developing countries. Our empirical findings show that when controlling for measures of wealth, education, and other factors, there is greater mobile broadband diffusion in countries that encourage competition in their broader telecommunications sector and practice sound regulation. In countries where open competition allows alternative ICTs to compete with each other, the presence of more expensive alternative telecommunication services also increases mobile broadband diffusion. Although theory suggests that sound regulation and sound governance should both positively affect mobile diffusion, we observe where this theory breaks down in practice. Specifically, outliers in our data set show that a few countries have achieved high levels of mobile broadband adoption even though they face significant problems with corruption in their government.