Girish K. Jha

Time-delay neural networks for time series prediction: an application to the monthly wholesale price of oilseeds in India

Agricultural price forecasting is one of the challenging areas of time series forecasting. The feed-forward time-delay neural network (TDNN) is one of the promising and potential methods for time series prediction. However, empirical evaluations of TDNN with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model often yield mixed results in terms of the superiority in forecasting performance. In this paper, the price forecasting capabilities of TDNN model, which can model nonlinear relationship, are compared with ARIMA model using monthly wholesale price series of oilseed crops traded in different markets in India. Most earlier studies of forecast accuracy for TDNN versus ARIMA do not consider pretesting for nonlinearity. This study shows that the nonlinearity test of price series provides reliable guide to post-sample forecast accuracy for neural network model. The TDNN model in general provides better forecast accuracy in terms of conventional root mean square error values as compared to ARIMA model for nonlinear patterns. The study also reveals that the neural network models have clear advantage over linear models for predicting the direction of monthly price change for different series. Such direction of change forecasts is particularly important in economics for capturing the business cycle movements relating to the turning points.

Combining Ability for Field Emergence, Kernel Quality Traits, and Certain Yield Components in Sweet Corn (Zea mays L.)

ABSTRACT Sweet corn (Zea mays L.), a specialty corn, has poor field emergence, stand establishment, and low yield compared to field corn, and the latter would be beneficial in the improvement of these traits. Seven field corn and four sweet corn inbred lines were used in a line-by-tester mating design for the analysis of combining ability and heterosis for field emergence, kernel quality traits, and some yield components. Field corn and sweet corn lines differed significantly in flowering, green-ear traits, yield, total soluble solids, and biochemical traits. Field corn inbreds (L5 and L6) and tester T4 emerged as good combiners for early maturity, whereas L2 was a good combiner for yield and sugar content. Testers T2 and T4 were good general combiners for early maturity, green-ear length, total sugar, and non-reducing sugar. Sweet corn recorded higher contents of sugar components and less starch compared with the field corn. Among crosses, L1 × T2, L6 × T4, and L3 × T2 were best specific combiners for early maturity, field emergence, and fresh ear weight, whereas hybrid L7 × T2 had better specific combining ability for grain yield, total soluble solids (TSS), total as well as non-reducing sugars. Further, hybrid L2 × T3 had high per se performance for fresh ear weight (246.67 g) and total sugar (15.49%). Such elite combinations with more fresh harvest yield as well as sugar content can be advanced to select sweet corn lines with improved plant stand and yield, and field corn lines with enhanced sugar content.

Assessment of phenotypic diversity in pearl millet [Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.] germplasm of Indian origin and identification of trait-specific germplasm

Abstract. Evaluation of genetic diversity within germplasm collections and identification of trait-specific germplasm is a basic requirement for plant breeders. A total of 221 Indian pearl millet collections from the National Genebank were characterised and evaluated for 27 agro-morphological descriptors. Considerable variation was observed for all characters. Frequency distribution analysis showed predominance of cylindrical and compact spike, grey seeds, earliness (less than 40 days to spike emergence). Hierarchical clustering method was used for classifying 221 pearl millet accessions based on agronomic and disease resistance traits, which resulted into three clusters. Clusters 1, 2 and 3 comprised 91, 54 and 76 accessions respectively. There was high correspondence between the geographic collection sites of accessions and their inclusion in particular clusters. In addition, principal component analysis was used for data reduction and generating biplot. First four principal components explained 66.43% of total variability. Among the traits analysed, plant height, nodes/plant, days to spike emergence, number of tillers, leaf width and leaf length are major contributor towards phenotypic diversity. Further the trait-specific germplasm were identified for agronomic traits, disease resistance, popping and antioxidants activity, namely for earliness (IC343664, IC343689, IC343661, IC309064), spike girth (IC283693, IC283842, IC367638), dual purpose with high grain and fodder yield (IC283705, IC283745, IC283885 and IC335901 and so on). Four accessions of pearl millet germplasm viz., IC309064, IC393365, IC306465 and IC283866, were observed as multiple disease resistant. This study suggested that application of appropriate techniques and their interpretations provide more efficient way to identify potential accessions and improve the utilisation of germplasm collections in plant breeding.

Price Transmission along the Cotton Value Chain

The study has examined integration and price transmission in the cotton-based textile value chain, using Johansen multivariate co-integration and error correction model. Although price adjustment mechanism is slow, the findings have provided a clear indication of the price transmission along the chain, and also the existence of a long-run equilibrium. The raw cotton price has been found exogenous, but has significant influence on the prices of cotton yarn and cloth. The textile value chain has been found effectively integrated; hence the policies should take into account the effect of impact on the entire value chain as to enable the cotton producers capture benefits of value addition.

Capitalizing the Potential of Private Sector in Strengthening Agri-Biotech R&D and Commercialization in India§

The paper has examined the emerging trends in growth and structure of agri-biotechnology product and innovation market in terms of institutional diversity, research orientation and capacities. It has also discussed industry perspective of incentives and constraints in commercialization of agri-biotech R&D. The study has revealed that though agri-biotech R&D industry has shown buoyancy in response to the increasing market-oriented production systems, still there is scope to utilize their potential for enhancing availability of quality seeds/planting materials/inputs, for the challenging agro-climatic conditions. Recognizing pervasive market failure and inertia in agri-biotech R&D industry, the study has advocated a leadership role taken by the public sector in addressing them, with the objective of establishing a fully functional and integrated R&D chain. This demands enhanced public investments and reorientation of public research agenda to generate not only unique public goods but also address research gaps, not much of private interests.

Micro-irrigation development in India: an analysis of distributional pattern and potential correlates

ABSTRACT In India, of late, micro-irrigation has received considerable policy focus. However, as of 2017, only about 10% of the potential area is under micro-irrigation. The present study analyzes the pattern and equity issues of distribution of micro-irrigation in India and identifies the potential correlates. The regression analysis reveals that the stage of groundwater development and agro-climatic differences significantly influence the spread of micro-irrigation. The relatively low spread of micro-irrigation in states with over-exploited groundwater needs attention. Overall, the study points to the need to revamp the current micro-irrigation development programmes, which focus excessively on subsidy.

Determinants of Credit Availability among Farmers: A Case of Banana Tissue Culture§

The technological improvements play vital role in enhancing the yield of agricultural crops. Tissue culture technology is a major intervention in banana, which have the potential to benefit the banana farmers in multiple ways. We have tested this by using primary survey of 100 farmers from the Gorakhpur district of Uttar Pradesh, a traditional sugarcane cultivated belt which is fast getting covered by banana plantations. Both adopters and non-adopters were surveyed and their adoption nature was studied by calculating cost and returns along with probit regression by using Hackmans selection bias model. It was found that availability of credit which affects the adoption behavior of farmers significantly along with age and farm income. Farmers those who are availing institutional credit mainly in the form KCC and term loans show more adoption behavior as compared to non-loanee farmers. The risk due to wind, drought and other abiotic factors were identified as the major constraints in the adoption of tissue culture banana in the region. Study emphasize the need for more financial assistance in the form of rural institutional credit, adequate and timely availability of quality inputs (especially planting materials) for better returns and thereby more adoption of high value crops.

An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Impact of decentralised rainwater harvesting structures on farm income, variable input usage and livestock possession in semi-arid tracts of India: Regression analyses#

To sustain the growth of agriculture and feed its growing population, India needs to shift to semi-arid regions characterised by water scarcity for irrigation. Rainwater harvesting is a potential solution to this problem in future. Decentralised rainwater harvesting systems have been developed to overcome the demerits of community based watershed structures. Using robust least square regression it was found that among various factors, adoption of rainwater harvesting structures is significant at 5 percent level of significance and plays important role in not only increasing the farm income but also increasing the use of yield enhancing inputs like fertiliser (1 per cent level of significance), seed (5 per cent), labour (1 per cent) and farmyard manure (1 per cent). Livestock possession was also found to be significantly influenced by adoption at 1 percent level of significance.

Solar Energy Use in Agriculture for Enhancing Farmers’ Income: A Case of Solar Tubewell in North-Western Rajasthan

This study conducted in north-western Rajasthan, has examined the capital cost and subsidy in the installation of solar tubewell, its feasibility and benefits realization and has identified constraints in the adoption of solar tubewells. Following random sampling technique, primary data were collected from 124 sample farmers. The study has shown that although, adoption of solar tubewell has a direct relation with farm-size, a considerable proportion of small and marginal farmers also adopted solar tubewells. In recent years, the subsidy component has been reduced in total investment on solar tubewells. Solar tubewells provide impressive economic and water-saving benefits to the farmers and investment with current rate of subsidy in solar tubewell has been found to be feasible. However, without subsidies, investment in solar tubewell is not economically feasible. Due to financial considerations, all categories of farmers were reluctant in adoption of solar tubewells to the expected extent. To realize the benefits of solar energy use in agriculture, efforts should be directed towards more financial incentives to ensure faster adoption and group-adoption and provision for buy back of surplus power to discourage over-exploitation of groundwater and realization of extra income by the farmers.