Gpj Geert Verbong

Multi-niche analysis of dynamics and policies in Dutch renewable energy innovation journeys (1970-2006): hype-cycles, closed networks and technology-focused learning

This article analyses long-term innovation policies and development trajectories of four renewable energy technologies: wind energy, biomass, fuel cells and hydrogen, and photovoltaics. These trajectories and policies are characterised by many costly failures, setbacks, hype-disappointment cycles, tensions, and struggles. Although setbacks and non-linearities are a normal part of innovation journeys, a comparative analysis of four cases shows the recurrence of particular problems. Using Strategic Niche Management as analytical approach, we conclude that major problems exist with regard to learning processes (too much technology-push, focused on R&D), social networks (supply side oriented, narrow, closed) and expectations (hype-disappointment cycles, limited competence to assess promises).

Translation mechanisms in socio-technical niches: A case study of Dutch river management

This paper makes three contributions to the field of transition research. First, it sheds light on how the concept of translation can contribute to a better understanding of agency in niche development. Second, it articulates how the local–global distinction in the strategic niche management (SNM) approach relates to the levels in the multi-level perspective. Third, the article is empirically novel by presenting a radical sustainable innovation in Dutch water management (‘New Rivers’).

Assessing the economic benefits of flexible residential load participation in the Dutch day-ahead auction and balancing market

In this paper the authors present the potential cost-savings that may arise due to demand response from residential customers participating in the Amsterdam Power eXchange (APX) day-ahead auction and the Dutch balancing energy market which is organised by TenneT, the Dutch Transmission System Operator (TSO). For this purpose, a model for residential demand response is developed that utilises as input historical market data. Furthermore, the model synthesises a daily load profile based on load profiles of Dutch residential customers and simulated data to represent aggregate demands of domestic appliances and electric vehicles. The model is built around the concept of the aggregator, an envisioned legal entity, that contracts large amounts of residential customers and then coordinates them in real-time under different objectives (i.e. economic optimisation based on predicted day-ahead prices and the provision of balancing energy). Simulation results show that the potential economic benefits of residential demand response, on the Dutch electricity markets, is relatively low on a per household basis, but not negligible for the business case of the aggregator.

Pathways for sustainability transitions in the electricity sector: Multi-level analysis and empirical illustration

This paper analyses sustainability transitions in the electricity sector. Using a Multi Level Perspective on transitions, three transition pathways are briefly elaborated and indications for the consequences for the infrastructure are given. The transformation pathway is characterised by a further hybridisation of the infrastructure; in the reconfiguration pathway, internationalisation and scale increase in renewable generation can lead to the emergence of a Supergrid. The de-alignment and re-alignment pathway is dominated by distributed generation and a focus on more local infrastructures. This pathway involves a major restrcuturing of the electricity system, but our conclusion is that this pathway is less likely than the other two. The de-alignment and re-alignment pathway is therefore more dependent on external developments and/or strong policy interventions. However, in all pathways major investments in infrastructure and innovative technologies are needed.

Distributed generation in the Dutch LV network - self-supporting residential area -

A self-supporting residential area is seen as an alternative operational approach of power supply in low voltage (LV) networks. The intention of the new approach is to exploit the advantages of distributed generation (DG) and avoid the difficulties, that come with DG when implemented in the distribution network, by balancing power supply and demand efficiently in the area that can easily be controlled and isolated from the upper grid. This case study verifies statements about the alternative operational approach by calculating reverse power flow, voltage levels, system losses, cable and transformer loads of a well-designed self-supporting residential area in the low voltage network containing combined heat and power (CHP), photovoltaic (PV) arrays and storage devices with a simulation program dasiavision network analysispsila. It appeared difficult to create a self-supporting residential area along seasons without being inferior in the parameters as stated above.

Smart Business for Smart Users: A Social Agenda for Developing Smart Grids

The promise of smart grids is very attractive. However, it is not yet clear what the future smart grid will look like. Although most researchers acknowledge that users will play a more prominent role in smart grids, there is a lot of uncertainty on this issue. To counter the strong technological bias in smart grid research and literature, we propose that research should focus more on the social and business dimension of smart grid developments. The main elements of such a research agenda are: Developing more socially embedded visions on smart grids and the services it will provide A shift in the focus on developing smart grids components and systems towards the services it will deliver Development and testing of innovative user-centered business models and ecosystems. More general, on the role of users in smart grids, the main lesson is that user roles should be taken more seriously in relation to smart grids: experts should no longer regard users exclusively and/or simply as potential barriers to smart grid innovation but also as important stakeholders and potential participants in the innovation process.

Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation

The energy domain is still dominated by equilibrium models that underestimate both the dangers and opportunities related to climate change. In reality, climate and energy systems contain tipping points, feedback loops, and exponential developments. This paper describes how to create realistic energy transition management models: quantitative models that can discover profitable pathways from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We review the literature regarding agent-based economics, disruptive innovation, and transition management and determine the following requirements. Actors must be detailed, heterogeneous, interacting, learning, and strategizing. Technology should be represented as a detailed and heterogeneous portfolio that can develop in a bottom-up manner, using endogenous feedback loops. Assumptions about discount rates and the social cost of carbon should be configurable. The model should contain interactions between the global, national, local, and individual level. A review of modelling techniques shows that equilibrium models are unsuitable and that system dynamics and discrete event simulation are too limited. The agent-based approach is found to be uniquely suited for the complex adaptive sociotechnical systems that must be modelled. But the choice for agent-based models does not mean a rejection of other approaches because they can be accommodated within the agent-based framework. We conclude with practical guidelines.