Rpjm Rob Raven

Non-linearity and expectations in niche-development trajectories: Ups and downs in Dutch biogas development (1973-2003)

Abstract Non-linearity and changes in the direction of technological trajectories, are related to changes in cognitive rules and expectations that guide technical search and development activities. To explain such changes, the article uses the literature on niche development, which highlights interactions between learning processes, network building and expectations. A long-term case study on Dutch biogas development illustrates how these interactions explain non-linearity, but the case study also shows the importance of external regime dynamics. It is concluded that non-linearity and changes in niche expectations are related to both internal learning processes and external developments.

Multi-niche analysis of dynamics and policies in Dutch renewable energy innovation journeys (1970-2006): hype-cycles, closed networks and technology-focused learning

This article analyses long-term innovation policies and development trajectories of four renewable energy technologies: wind energy, biomass, fuel cells and hydrogen, and photovoltaics. These trajectories and policies are characterised by many costly failures, setbacks, hype-disappointment cycles, tensions, and struggles. Although setbacks and non-linearities are a normal part of innovation journeys, a comparative analysis of four cases shows the recurrence of particular problems. Using Strategic Niche Management as analytical approach, we conclude that major problems exist with regard to learning processes (too much technology-push, focused on R&D), social networks (supply side oriented, narrow, closed) and expectations (hype-disappointment cycles, limited competence to assess promises).

Implementation of manure digestion and co-combustion in the Dutch electricity regime: a multi-level analysis of market implementation in the Netherlands

Energy from biomass is expected to be the most important renewable energy source in the Netherlands on the short term. Nevertheless, the implementation of many projects using biomass is considerably delayed, while other projects are abandoned. In this paper, the discrepancy between national policy goals on the one hand and actual implementation on the other is therefore investigated. A multi-level model is introduced in which technological development is understood as the interaction of developments at the level of technological regimes, niches and the broader context of the socio-technical landscape. Subsequently, the model is used to analyze the developments in the electricity regime and the niches for manure digestion and co-combustion. The main conclusion is that the delay of the projects is explained not only by a lack of stability within the electricity regime, but also by a mismatch of the rules of respectively the agricultural regime and the waste regime.

Strategic niche management of social innovations: the case of social entrepreneurship

Strategic niche management (SNM), a tool to understand and manage radical socio-technical innovations and facilitate their diffusion, has always departed from a technical artefact. Many radical innovations, however, do not revolve around such an artefact. Social entrepreneurship is a new business model that combines a social goal with a business mentality and is heralded as an important new way to create social value such as sustainability. This study examines if and how SNM can be applied to such a social innovation. It identifies theoretical and practical limitations and proposes solutions. The main conclusion is that SNM can be used to analyse radical social innovation, although it requires rethinking the initial entry point for research and management. Exemplifying quotes are proposed as an alternative. Second, this paper suggests using values to describe niche–regime interaction as a better way to anticipate future niche–regime interactions.

Upscaling of business model experiments in off-grid PV solar energy in India

Rapidly developing countries like India face numerous challenges related to social and environmental sustainability, which are associated with their fast economic growth and rising energy demand, climate change, and widening disparities between the rich and the poor. Recently, a number of claims have been made in the literature that the prospects of alternative development pathways in emerging economies in Asia are becoming more likely, and that these economies might even leapfrog Western initiatives. This paper contributes by reporting on the five most visible and established initiatives in the area of off-grid PV solar energy in India, specifically homing in on the innovative business models that are evolving. We develop a new typology of upscaling dimensions in order to analyze these five initiatives. They are found to be quite successful, but have difficulty in terms of reaching the poorest of the poor (deep upscaling) and bringing about required institutional change (institutional upscaling).

Translation mechanisms in socio-technical niches: A case study of Dutch river management

This paper makes three contributions to the field of transition research. First, it sheds light on how the concept of translation can contribute to a better understanding of agency in niche development. Second, it articulates how the local–global distinction in the strategic niche management (SNM) approach relates to the levels in the multi-level perspective. Third, the article is empirically novel by presenting a radical sustainable innovation in Dutch water management (‘New Rivers’).

Three is a crowd? Exploring the potential of crowdfunding for renewable energy in the Netherlands

There is a huge gap between demand and supply of finance for energy transitions, and the financial and economic crisis have had a negative impact in the already meagre funds for transforming the energy system towards renewable sources. In this paper we explore whether crowdfunding for renewable energy, as a novel sociotechnical practice developed in a niche, has the potential to break through and transform both the energy and the financial regimes, utilising the Multi-Level Perspective theory. We empirically investigate crowdfunding platforms linked to renewable electricity projects in the Netherlands. The main conclusion is that the volume of crowdfunding today is low, but the dynamic of these projects holds potential. There is limited indication of learning processes until now, as well as limited support from regime actors, pointing at a low level of niche stabilization and break-through potential, which may however be related to the early stage of development of crowdfunding in the Netherlands. On the other hand, the heterogeneity of crowdfunders is very promising. Platforms dedicated to renewable electricity exclusively, and with an investment based business model seem to be the most successful. We show how governmental market regulation and support mechanisms are shaping crowdfunding as a business model, and discuss the implications for other countries.

Socio-cognitive evolution and co-evolution in competing technical trajectories: Biogas development in Denmark (1970-2002)'

This article makes two fundamental contributions to evolutionary theories of technological changes. First, a socio-cognitive evolutionary perspective is developed that conceptualises the emergence of new technologies in the pre-market phase. This topic is underdeveloped in evolutionary economics, because of its emphasis on market selection. Second, the article addresses co-evolution between two competing technical trajectories. In the pre-market phase, this interaction occurs via expectations and social networks. The perspective is illustrated with a longitudinal case study of biogas plants in Denmark. This sustainability innovation exists in two forms: farm-scale plants and centralised plants. Both forms are carried by different populations and based on different cognitive rules.

Metering motorbike mobility: informal transport in transition?

Vast numbers of people in rapidly growing cities throughout the developing world depend on informal transport services for their mobility needs. Thus far the field of transition studies has addressed the dynamics of socio-technical change in situations where regimes of automobility and sanctioned public transport constitute the dominant order, but not in contexts of cities in the developing world, where informal transit thrives. In this paper we enquire about stability and prospects for change in these kinds of socio-technical systems. To this end, we trace the evolution of Bangkoks motorcycle taxi industry including recent efforts to introduce a potentially radical innovation: an information and communications technology (ICT) platform used as a taximeter. The paper concludes that innovations in informal urban transport are opening up alternative mobility pathways for the developing world, which might even spread far beyond their original confines into the West; and that the persistence of informal transport systems and the proliferation of innovations within those systems in developing countries prove to be relevant phenomena for defining prominent topics on the agenda of (sustainability) transitions research.