Graham Nicholas Bornholt

Extending the Capital Asset Pricing Model: The Reward Beta Approach

This paper offers an alternative method for estimating expected returns. The proposed reward beta approach performs well empirically and is based on asset pricing theory. The empirical section compares this approach with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Fama-French three-factor model. In out-of-sample testing, both the CAPM and the three-factor model are rejected. In contrast, the reward beta approach easily passes the same test. In robustness checks, the reward beta approach consistently outperforms both the CAPM and the three-factor model.

The Failure of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): An Update and Discussion

Dempsey (2013) highlights the empirical failure of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). I study the beta, value and momentum anomalies using industry returns, with particular emphasis on the post-1993 period. Strong evidence of these effects is observed over the whole sample. However in recent years, while the value and momentum anomalies appear to continue, the beta anomaly appears to have weakened. Notwithstanding these results, I show that the value and momentum anomalies, and the value of beta, are largely irrelevant to the calculation of industry cost of equity

Industry Long-Term Return Reversal

Given that extreme industry returns may herald long-term structural changes in the industries involved that may eventually lead to reversals in industry fortunes, we investigate the evidence for long-term return reversal in industry returns. Our study employs both pure contrarian strategies and late-stage contrarian strategies, and includes extra-long strategy formation periods (up to 132 months) to allow sufficient time for structural changes to begin. We find strong evidence of reversals in the long-term returns of industries. These reversals continue for many years (with valuation effects observed up to 10 years after commencement) and are difficult to reconcile with overreaction.

Is the 52-week high effect as strong as momentum? Evidence from developed and emerging market indices

Existing research shows that a strategy based on the 52-week high prices of individual stocks explains momentum and is able to forecast returns. Given that the momentum strategy based on international market indices is also known to be profitable, we investigate the profitability of the 52-week high strategy for both developed and emerging market indices. In each case, we find that the momentum strategy is significantly more profitable than the corresponding 52-week high strategy. In general, our results indicate that the 52-week high effect is not as reliable or as robust as the momentum effect.

The Two-Year Effect

This paper identifies a puzzling form of predictability in U.S. stock market portfolios. For the value weighted market index, those years that follow a low return two years earlier have an average return 11.6% higher than those years that follow a high return two years earlier. The difference in returns is economically and statistically significant. This Two-Year Effect is not concentrated in January, nor is it a small-cap effect. The phenomenon cannot be explained by macroeconomic business cycle variables related to expected returns, or by the four-year U.S. presidential election cycle.

The Trimmed Bootstrap: An Empirical Simulation Technique for Pension Finance Researchers

Different variations of the Efron [1979] bootstrap have become popular tools for simulating retirement outcomes. However, to date, no study has examined their accuracy when they are used to simulate retirement outcomes. We test the accuracy of the competing bootstrap methods through a series of out-of-sample tests. The analysis shows that these bootstraps can be wildly inaccurate. Our concerns with existing methods lead us to propose a new bootstrap: the “trimmed” bootstrap. Its significantly greater accuracy will benefit policymakers, advisers, and fund members.

Share Issuance Effects in the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Previous research describes the net share issuance anomaly in U.S. stocks as pervasive, both in size-based sorts and in cross-section regressions. As a further test of its pervasiveness, this paper undertakes an in-depth study of share issuance effects in the Australian equity market. The anomaly is observed in all size stocks except micro stocks. For example, equal weighted portfolios of non-issuing big stocks outperform portfolios of high issuing big stocks by an average of 0.84% per month over 1990–2009. This outperformance survives risk adjustment and appears to subsume the asset growth effect in Australian stock returns.

Predictability of Future Index Returns Based on the 52-Week High Strategy

George and Hwang (2004) show that a stocks 52-week high price explains the momentum effect and that a strategy based on closeness to the 52-week high has better forecasting power for future returns than those strategies based on past returns. In contrast to the existing research at company level, this paper shows that the 52-week high ratio has weak or no predictive power when applied to market indices. In the developed markets, the strategy is weakly profitable and underperforms the momentum strategy while in the emerging markets the strategy earns negative returns. These results also contradict Du (2008) who finds that a 52-week high index strategy dominates momentum in the developed markets.