Graham Partington

The value of dividends: Evidence from cum‐dividend trading in the ex‐dividend period

What is the market value of a dollar of fully franked dividends? We address this question by exploiting a new phenomenon in the Australian capital market—the trading of shares cum-dividend during the ex-dividend period. This allows a relatively clean measurement of the combined value of dividends and the associated tax effects net of transactions costs. Consistent with the theoretical model that we develop, the evidence from this sample is that one dollar of fully franked dividends, after tax effects and transaction costs, is worth significantly more than one dollar. We also show that, in contrast to our measure, the traditional measure of the ex-dividend price drop-off, based on close to close prices, has a lower average value and exhibits substantially more cross sectional variation.

The Motivation for Takeovers in the UK

The motives for takeovers in the UK are investigated by examining the correlations between wealth gains for the target and both acquirer wealth gains and total wealth gains. The results are sensitive to whether the gains are measured over a long or short window, the method of measuring abnormal returns, and whether controls are included for the form of the bid consideration and the sign of total bid gains. There is evidence of bids motivated by synergy, but there is also evidence of the presence of hubris and weak evidence of bids with an agency motivation. Once controls for bid consideration and the sign of total gains are introduced the explanatory power of the models increases substantially and diversity of results about bid motivation also increases.

Surviving Chapter 11 Bankruptcies: Duration and Payoff?

Three of the authors previously developed a model to predict the duration of Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the payoff to shareholders (Partington et al., 2001). This work augments that study using a much larger sample to re-estimate the model and assess its stability. It also provides an opportunity for out-of-sample testing of predictive accuracy. The resulting models are based on Coxs proportional hazards model and the current article points to the need to test two important assumptions underlying the model. First, that the hazards are proportional and, second, that censoring is independent of the event studied. Using the extended data set, all the previously significant accounting variables drop out of the model and only two covariates of the original model remain significant. These are the market wide credit spread and the market capitalization of the firm, both measured immediately prior to the firms entry to Chapter 11. Receiver operating characteristic curves are then used to assess the predictive accuracy of the original and extended models. The results show that Lachenbruch tests can provide a misleading indication of predictive ability out of sample. Using the Lachenbruch method of in-sample testing, both models show predictive power, but in a true out-of-sample test they fail dismally. The lessons of this work are relevant to better predicting the gains and losses likely to accrue to shareholders of companies in Chapter 11 bankruptcy and in similar administrative arrangements in other jurisdictions.

Run length and the predictability of stock price reversals

Survival analysis is used to estimate time-varying probabilities of price reversals using daily data for the Australian All Ordinaries Price Index. Lagged price changes lead to persistence (shortening) in a price run if they are of the same (opposite) sign as the run. An increase in the number of runs observed in the previous 30 days also increases the probability of price reversal. The predictive accuracy of the models is assessed using a probability scoring rule. Consistent with market efficiency, the estimated models are less accurate than the random walk model in predicting the length of individual price runs out-of-sample.

Institutional Trading Around the Ex-Dividend Day

This study uses the trading records of institutional equity funds to examine their ex-dividend trading behaviour. We argue that trading is influenced by the tax incentives facing the fund, the characteristics of individual stocks and by changes in tax legislation. In aggregate, institutions trade to avoid the dividend and franking credit. Changes in tax incentives and the fund’s tax status also affect ex-dividend day trading, with unit trusts dominating the dividend avoidance trades. The results indicate that taxes, transactions costs and the cum-dividend price run-up influence the trading of institutional investors around the ex-dividend day.

Cost of capital equations under the Australian imputation tax system

Since the introduction of the Australian imputation tax system, there have been problems both in the measurement of the market value of franking (imputation tax) credits and in their application to estimating cash flows and the cost of capital. In the present paper, we provide a convenient and robust resolution to the above problems in the context of an internally consistent set of equations for the cost of capital, asset valuation and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The equations apply under both classical and imputation tax systems and under differential taxation of dividends, capital gains and interest. The simple form of the CAPM presented here is shown to encompass more complex versions of the CAPM, which attempt to accommodate the effect of personal taxes. The valuation equations require an estimate of the market value of

Price and Volume Behavior around the Ex‐dividend Day: Evidence on the Value of Dividends from American Depositary Receipts and their Underlying Australian Stocks*

1 of the firms dividends, within which is embedded the market value of the imputation tax credits. Separate estimates of the value of imputation tax credits, or Officers gamma factor, are not required.

Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms

Australian residents are tax-advantaged, relative to American investors, in their access to imputation tax credits on Australian stocks. This paper provides evidence consistent with a difference in dividend valuations between Australian stocks and their American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). The ex-dividend drop-off ratio is lower for ADRs relative to their underlying Australian stocks and this difference is most pronounced for stocks that have imputation tax credits and high dividend yields. Consistent with dividend capture trading in the Australian market, the difference in drop-off ratios is driven by both temporarily higher Australian cum-prices and temporarily lower Australian ex-prices. Abnormal trading volume about the ex-day is present in both markets and in the Australian market the abnormal volume is greater for dividends with imputation tax credits. Dividend-related trading leads to price differences across the markets on the ex-dividend day. Price differences are also observed when the stock and the ADR trade with different dividend entitlements due to different ex-dividend dates.

Dangers in data adjustment: the case of rights issues and returns

Dynamic forecasts of financial distress have received far less attention than static forecasts, particularly in Australia. This study, therefore, investigates dynamic probability forecasts for Australian firms. Novel features of the modelling are the use of time-varying variables in forecasts from a Cox model. Not only is this one of relatively few studies to apply dynamic variables in forecasting financial distress, but to the authors’ knowledge it is the first to provide forecasts of survival probabilities using the Cox model with time-varying variables. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using receiver operating characteristics curves and the Brier Score. It was found that the dynamic model had superior predictive power, in out-of-sample forecasts, to the traditional Cox model and to the logit model.

A note on transaction costs and the interpretation of dividend drop‐off ratios

In this paper we alert researchers to the potential for unrecognised errors in using adjusted price and daily return data. This problem is illustrated by considering the case of ex-rights price adjustments. We present five alternative adjustment procedures that would be expected to generate similar results. We show, however, that these procedures result in significantly different dilution factors and returns. Our investigations suggest that the problem is associated with the theoretical valuation of the rights. In a substantial proportion of cases, the standard textbook model is inappropriate because of the non-standard nature of the rights issue. Correcting for these non-standard cases is a non-trivial task since they constitute more than half of the issues. The extent of this problem does not appear to be well recognised. Deletion of non-standard rights issues eliminates extreme values in dilution factors, but statistically significant differences remain. Our moral is simple; uncritical acceptance of data ‘as is’ from computer data files may lead researchers to erroneous conclusions. It also seems noteworthy that the standard textbook model of rights pricing only applied to a minority of Australian rights issues over recent years. This result has implications for the calculation of EPS under AASB 1027. As a by-product, our analysis suggests that the ex-rights daily return is close to zero.