Graham Strickert

Mixed-method integration and advances in fuzzy cognitive maps for computational policy simulations for natural hazard mitigation

Human systems need to be adaptive to the consequences of natural hazards. Public policy decisions on natural hazard mitigation can benefit from computational models that embody a comprehensive view of the system. Such models need to be transparent and integrate both expert and lay expert knowledge and experience in an efficient manner. By integrating hard and soft sciences within an overall systems framework, scientists, policy makers and communities can better understand how to improve adaptive capacity. We present a fuzzy cognitive map based Auto-Associative Neural Networks framework generated from a development mixed method integration (triangulation) for adaptive policy formulations. The specific policies relate to preparation for, response to, and recovery from earthquakes in mountainous ski-field environments - a case study chosen to highlight the framework. Three different data collection techniques - expert geomorphic assessments, semi-structured qualitative interviews with three stakeholder groups (experts and lay experts), and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) (node and arc maps of stakeholder perceptions) were employed. FCM were first analysed using Graph theory indices to determine map structure. Special attention was paid to subsequent processing of fuzzy cognitive maps (e.g., condensation and aggregation) with qualitative followed by quantitative means to simplify the FCM from the original total of 300 variables to 5 high-level themes to improve the efficacy of subsequent policy simulations. Specifically, the use of Self Organising Maps (SOM) to group concepts (condensation) and individual stakeholders (aggregation) into social group FCMs is a novel contribution to advancing FCM. In the process, SOM also enabled the embedment of nonlinear relationships inherent in the system in the simplified FCM allowing a platform for realistic and meaningful policy simulations based on collective perceptions. Specifically, each of the three simplified stakeholder group FCM and a total social group FCM was represented by Auto-Associative Neural Networks (AANN) which converts an FCM into a dynamical system that allows policy scenario simulations based on input from both expert and lay expert stakeholders. A policy scenario is the level of importance given to a set of concepts and their effects on the system behaviour as revealed by the simulations. We present the results from one of several policy simulations to highlight the effectiveness of the mixed-method integration leading to simplified-FCM based ANNN simulations. Results revealed the similarities and differences between stakeholder group responses in relation to the scenario analysed and how these formed collective responses in the total social group map. Furthermore, outcomes of group and total social group simulations could be interpreted from individual and group stakeholder FCMs giving credibility to the mixed-method approach. Highlights? We demonstrate an approach of computational policy simulations for mitigating natural hazards. ? Advancements of FCM is shown through use of Self-organising Maps for condensation and aggregation. ? What-if scenario simulations are run using Auto-Associative Neural Networks (AANN). ? Analyse the relationships among stakeholder groups to show how they shape collective responses. ? Highlight the potential of the approach for participatory policy development.

Divergent Perspectives on Water Security: Bridging the Policy Debate

Environmental policy discussion is replete with references to water security, food security, ecosystem health, community resilience, sustainable development, and sustainable urbanism. These terms are, by their very nature, ambiguous and difficult to define; they allow room, however, for a variety of actors to conceptualize water, food, ecological, economic, and urban problems in ways that allow them to move forward on contentious issues. This article focuses on the idea of water security and asks how it is conceptualized and used for regional policy debate in western Canada. We asked fifty-eight water stakeholders from the Saskatchewan River Basin to define water security, identify major barriers to security, and prioritize water problems. Responses showed there are myriad ways to think about water security, ranging from narrow conceptualizations, such as reliability, quality, and quantity, to broader sustainability perspectives about the nature of resource development and its social and economic consequences. The human dimensions of water security (governance, land use, and competing demands) were assigned higher priority than its biophysical aspects (flooding, droughts, and climate change). Framing water security to emphasize the human capacity to manage uncertain and rapid biophysical and societal change offers the opportunity to unite actors who otherwise would be separated by core environmental values, definitions of water security, provincial context (Alberta vs. Saskatchewan), and occupation.

People, Places, Protected Areas and Tourism: Place Attachment in Rossport, Ontario, Canada

Abstract Place attachment is spatially and temporally anchored in the local context, affecting how residents perceive proposed development strategies. As such, we examine, through the analysis of 18 interviews conducted with residents from Rossport, Ontario, Canada, how place attachment and historical antecedents (or lack thereof) have influenced the acceptance of, or opposition to, conservation and tourism strategies in and near the village of Rossport, Ontario. The analysis of the interviews suggests that some of the resistance and scepticism towards conservation and tourism initiatives by long-term residents is rooted in historical approaches to regional development strategies, while a lack of awareness of historical events prevents newer residents, who often supported these initiatives, from understanding the legacy of these proposals in the community. Moreover, analysis indicates that sharing the stories of the community and place attachment through video interviews provides an opportunity to promote social cohesion and a place attachment between long-term residents and more recent amenity migrants.

Interfacing Stakeholder Involvement into a Surface Water-Quality Modelling System for Water Management and Policy Development

Water quality has been under unprecedented pressure over the past few decades due, in part, to increasing nutrient pollution from cities, industrial zones and agricultural areas entering river systems. The dynamics of these impacts on water quality are complex and stem from decisions and activities of different groups of stakeholders, who can have different business plans, values and attitudes towards water quality. This means that, improving the quality of water requires incorporating stakeholders’ viewpoints and decisions into water quality management processes. This study proposes a modelling framework to engage stakeholders in selecting practices and policies that can improve riverine and lacustrine water quality.

Water and the future of humanity: revisiting water security

developers and advanced users of numerical slope stability models. It is highly mathematical in approach (by my count, there are 367 equations!), and discusses both analytic and numeric solutions to the classic problems of infiltration, subsurface flow, total and effective stress and slope stability analysis. The book begins with a brief review (chapters 1 and 2) of landslide classification and behaviour, soil classification, surface water hydrology and groundwater hydrology. Chapters 3 and 4 proceed to a detailed treatment of infiltration theory. This includes a useful review of some concepts from soil physics, including soil water characteristic curves, flow through layered media, and capillary barriers. In chapters 5 and 6, the classical theories of total and effective stress are discussed, including some detailed examples of finite-element solutions. Chapter 7 gives a brief review of the concepts of shear strength, including friction angle, cohesion, cementation and strength due to plant roots. Laboratory methods of measuring soil water characteristic curves and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity are described in chapter 8. In chapters 9 and 10, the classical approaches of infinite slope analysis and the method of slices are briefly reviewed, and several more advanced methods are developed. These include extension of the classical methods to unsaturated conditions, and numerical computation of the stress field and local factor of safety in two-dimensional slopes. Several case studies are presented which are interesting applications of modern advances in numerical computation methods. These present the factor of safety as a continuously variable field for a cross-section through a potentially failing slope, rather than the usual simplification of a single factor of safety which applies to an entire assumed failure plane. These simulations allow one to visualize where in the slope failure might be initiated, under various infiltration scenarios representing rainstorms or snowmelt. The case studies and models of slope stability analysis emphasize pore water pressure in the unsaturated zone (suction stress). This is often neglected in simpler models, but can be important in cases where failure occurs under unsaturated conditions. The approaches presented in this book are applicable mainly to engineered slopes for which the material properties are simple and well known, or to intensively studied chronic landslides for which detailed borehole information has been obtained. They are of limited applicability to most natural landslides in remote locations, for which detailed geotechnical information is lacking. In such cases, simpler classical methods of calculating or estimating slope stability are probably of greater practical value. In the natural world, the location and timing of landslides in surficial material are often influenced by local variability of soil properties, unknown structural discontinuities, complex layering and gradations in texture, macropores, tree roots, faults, deformation history, fingering flow during infiltration, and other random or unknown factors. The highly analytical approach does not, and probably cannot, consider most of these factors. This book is an up-to-date, comprehensive reference that should be valuable for advanced geotechnical studies at well-instrumented sites. Those dealing with landslides in most natural settings such as forests (which is this reviewer’s background) will find it less practical.