Willemijn M. Appels

Spatiotemporal variability of four precipitation-based drought indices in Xinjiang, China

Global increases in duration and prevalence of droughts require detailed drought characterization at various spatial and temporal scales. In this study, drought severity in Xinjiang, China was investigated between 1961 and 2012. Using meteorological data from 55 weather stations, the UNEP (1993) index (IA), Erinç’s aridity index (Im), and Sahin’s aridity index (Ish) were calculated at the monthly and annual timescales and compared to the Penman-Monteith based standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEIPM). Drought spatiotemporal variability was analyzed for north (NX), south (SX), and entire Xinjiang (EX). Im could not be calculated at 51 stations in winter as Tmax was below 0. At the monthly timescale, IA, Im, and Ish correlated poorly to SPEIPM because of seasonality and temporal variability, but annual IA, Im, and Ish correlated well with SPEIPM. Annual IA, Im, and Ish showed strong spatial variability. The 15 extreme droughts denoted by monthly SPEIPM occurred in NX but out of phase in SX. Annual precipitation, maximum temperature, and relative and specific humidity increased, while air pressure and potential evapotranspiration decreased over 1961–2012. The resulting increases in the four drought indices indicated that drought severity in Xinjiang decreased, because the local climate became warmer and wetter.

Infiltration into frozen soil: From core-scale dynamics to hillslope-scale connectivity

Infiltration into frozen soil is a key hydrological process in cold regions. Although the mechanisms behind point‐scale infiltration into frozen soil are relatively well understood, questions remain about upscaling point‐scale results to estimate hillslope‐scale run‐off generation. Here, we tackle this question by combining laboratory, field, and modelling experiments. Six large (0.30‐m diameter by 0.35‐m deep) soil cores were extracted from an experimental hillslope on the Canadian Prairies. In the laboratory, we measured run‐off and infiltration rates of the cores for two antecedent moisture conditions under snowmelt rates and diurnal freeze–thaw conditions observed on the same hillslope. We combined the infiltration data with spatially variable data from the hillslope, to parameterise a surface run‐off redistribution model. We used the model to determine how spatial patterns of soil water content, snowpack water equivalent (SWE), and snowmelt rates affect the spatial variability of infiltration and hydrological connectivity over frozen soil. Our experiments showed that antecedent moisture conditions of the frozen soil affected infiltration rates by limiting the initial soil storage capacity and infiltration front penetration depth. However, shallow depths of infiltration and refreezing created saturated conditions at the surface for dry and wet antecedent conditions, resulting in similar final infiltration rates (0.3 mm hr⁻¹). On the hillslope‐scale, the spatial variability of snowmelt rates controlled the development of hydrological connectivity during the 2014 spring melt, whereas SWE and antecedent soil moisture were unimportant. Geostatistical analysis showed that this was because SWE variability and antecedent moisture variability occurred at distances shorter than that of topographic variability, whereas melt variability occurred at distances longer than that of topographic variability. The importance of spatial controls will shift for differing locations and winter conditions. Overall, our results suggest that run‐off connectivity is determined by (a) a pre‐fill phase, during which a thin surface soil layer wets up, refreezes, and saturates, before infiltration excess run‐off is generated and (b) a subsequent fill‐and‐spill phase on the surface that drives hillslope‐scale run‐off.

Feedbacks Between Shallow Groundwater Dynamics and Surface Topography on Runoff Generation in Flat Fields: SHALLOW GW-MESOTOPOGRAPHY INTERACTIONS

In winter, saturation excess (SE) ponding is observed regularly in temperate lowland regions. Surface runoff dynamics are controlled by small topographical features that are unaccounted for in hydrological models. To better understand storage and routing effects of small scale topography and their interaction with shallow groundwater under SE conditions, we developed a model of reduced complexity to investigate SE runoff generation, emphasizing feedbacks between shallow groundwater dynamics and mesotopography. The dynamic specific yield affected unsaturated zone water storage, causing rapid switches between negative and positive head and a flatter groundwater mound than predicted by analytical agro-hydrological models. Accordingly, saturated areas were larger and local groundwater fluxes smaller than predicted, leading to surface runoff generation. Mesotopographic features routed water over larger distances, providing a feedback mechanism that amplified changes to the shape of the groundwater mound. This in turn enhanced runoff generation, but whether it also resulted in runoff events depended on the geometry and location of the depressions. Whereas conditions favourable to runoff generation may abound during winter, these feedbacks profoundly reduce the predictability of SE runoff: statistically identical rainfall series may result in completely different runoff generation. The model results indicate that waterlogged areas in any given rainfall event are larger than those predicted by current analytical groundwater models used for drainage design. This change in the groundwater mound extent has implications for crop growth and damage assessments.