Gualberto Asencio-Cortés

Medium---large earthquake magnitude prediction in Tokyo with artificial neural networks

This work evaluates artificial neural networks’ accuracy when used to predict earthquakes magnitude in Tokyo. Several seismicity indicators have been retrieved from the literature and used as input for the networks. Some of them have been improved and parameterized in order to extract more valuable knowledge from datasets. The experimental set-up includes predictions for five consecutive datasets referring to year 2015, earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.0 and for a temporal horizon of seven days. Results have been compared to four well-known machine learning algorithms, reporting very promising results in terms of all quality parameters evaluated. The statistical tests applied conclude that differences between the proposed artificial neural network and the other methods are significant.

A sensitivity study of seismicity indicators in supervised learning to improve earthquake prediction

The use of different seismicity indicators as input for systems to predict earthquakes is becoming increasingly popular. Nevertheless, the values of these indicators have not been systematically obtained so far. This is mainly due to the gap of knowledge existing between seismologists and data mining experts. In this work, the effect of using different parameterizations for inputs in supervised learning algorithms has been thoroughly analyzed by means of a new methodology. Five different analyses have been conducted, mainly related to the shape of training and test sets, to the calculation of the b-value, and to the adjustment of most collected indicators. Outputs sensitivity has been determined when any of these factors is not properly taken into consideration. The methodology has been applied to four Chilean zones. Given its general-purpose design, it can be extended to any location. Similar conclusions have been drawn for all the cases: a proper selection of the sets length and a careful parameterization of certain indicators leads to significantly better results, in terms of prediction accuracy.

Soft computing methods for the prediction of protein tertiary structures

Graphical abstractDisplay Omitted HighlightsA compilation of soft computing approaches for solving the protein structure prediction problem.90 methods of the last 15 years have been categorized according to the type of methodology employed.A summary of the basic concepts in the research field of protein structure prediction. The problem of protein structure prediction (PSP) represents one of the most important challenges in computational biology. Determining the three dimensional structure of proteins is necessary to understand their functions at molecular level. The most representative soft computing approaches for solving the protein tertiary structure prediction problem are summarized in this paper. These approaches have been categorized following the type of methodology. A total of 90 relevant works published in last 15 years in the field of protein structure prediction have been reported, including the best competitors in last CASP editions. However, despite large research effort in last decades, a considerable scope for further improvement still remains in this area.

Evolutionary decision rules for predicting protein contact maps

Protein structure prediction is currently one of the main open challenges in Bioinformatics. The protein contact map is an useful, and commonly used, representation for protein 3D structure and represents binary proximities (contact or non-contact) between each pair of amino acids of a protein. In this work, we propose a multi-objective evolutionary approach for contact map prediction based on physico-chemical properties of amino acids. The evolutionary algorithm produces a set of decision rules that identifies contacts between amino acids. The rules obtained by the algorithm impose a set of conditions based on amino acid properties to predict contacts. We present results obtained by our approach on four different protein data sets. A statistical study was also performed to extract valid conclusions from the set of prediction rules generated by our algorithm. Results obtained confirm the validity of our proposal.

Short-Range interactions and decision tree-based protein contact map predictor

In this paper, we focus on protein contact map prediction, one of the most important intermediate steps of the protein folding problem. The objective of this research is to know how short-range interactions can contribute to a system based on decision trees to learn about the correlation among the covalent structures of a protein residues. We propose a solution to predict protein contact maps that combines the use of decision trees with a new input codification for short-range interactions. The methods performance was very satisfactory, improving the accuracy instead using all information of the protein sequence. For a globulin data set the method can predict contacts with a maximal accuracy of 43%. The presented predictive model illustrates that short-range interactions play the predominant role in determining protein structure.

Improving Earthquake Prediction with Principal Component Analysis: Application to Chile

Increasing attention has been paid to the prediction of earthquakes with data mining techniques during the last decade. Several works have already proposed the use of certain features serving as inputs for supervised classifiers. However, they have been successfully used without any further transformation so far. In this work, the use of principal component analysis to reduce data dimensionality and generate new datasets is proposed. In particular, this step is inserted in a successfully already used methodology to predict earthquakes. Santiago and Pichilemu, two of the cities mostly threatened by large earthquakes occurrence in Chile, are studied. Several well-known classifiers combined with principal component analysis have been used. Noticeable improvement in the results is reported.

A NSGA-II algorithm for the residue-residue contact prediction

We present a multi-objective evolutionary approach to predict protein contact maps. The algorithm provides a set of rules, inferring whether there is contact between a pair of residues or not. Such rules are based on a set of specific amino acid properties. These properties determine the particular features of each amino acid represented in the rules. In order to test the validity of our proposal, we have compared results obtained by our method with results obtained by other classification methods. The algorithm shows better accuracy and coverage rates than other contact map predictor algorithms. A statistical analysis of the resulting rules was also performed in order to extract conclusions of the protein folding problem.

A novel methodology to predict urban traffic congestion with ensemble learning

Urban traffic congestion prediction is a very hot topic due to the environmental and economical impacts that currently implies. In this sense, to be able to predict bottlenecks and to provide alternatives to the circulation of vehicles becomes an essential task for traffic management. A novel methodology, based on ensembles of machine learning algorithms, is proposed to predict traffic congestion in this paper. In particular, a set of seven algorithms of machine learning has been selected to prove their effectiveness in the traffic congestion prediction. Since all the seven algorithms are able to address supervised classification, the methodology has been developed to be used as a binary classification problem. Thus, collected data from sensors located at the Spanish city of Seville are analyzed and models reaching up to 83xa0% are generated.

Imbalanced classification techniques for monsoon forecasting based on a new climatic time series

Abstract Monsoons have been widely studied in the literature due to their climatic impact related to precipitation and temperature over different regions around the world. In this work, data mining techniques, namely imbalanced classification techniques, are proposed in order to check the capability of climate indices to capture and forecast the evolution of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon. Thus, the main goal is to predict if the monsoon will be an extreme monsoon for a temporal horizon of a month. Firstly, a new monthly index of the monsoon related to its intensity has been generated. Later, the problem of forecasting has been transformed into a binary imbalanced classification problem and a set of representative techniques, such as models based on trees, models based on rules, black box models and ensemble techniques, are applied to obtain the forecasts. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that the methodology proposed here reports promising results according to the quality measures evaluated and predicts extreme monsoons for a temporal horizon of a month with a high accuracy.

Impact of Auto-evaluation Tests as Part of the Continuous Evaluation in Programming Courses

The continuous evaluation allows for the assessment of the progressive assimilation of concepts and the competences that must be achieved in a course. There are several ways to implement such continuous evaluation system. We propose auto-evaluation tests as a valuable tool for the student to judge his level of knowledge. Furthermore, these tests are also used as a small part of the continuous evaluation process, encouraging students to learn the concepts seen in the course, as they have the feeling that the time dedicated to this study will have an assured reward, binge able to answer correctly the questions in the continuous evaluation exams. New technologies are a great aid to improve the auto-evaluation experience both for the students and the teachers. In this research work we have compared the results obtained in courses where auto-evaluation tests were provided against courses where they were not provided, showing how the tests improve a set of quality metrics in the results of the course.