Gulay Gunluk-Senesen

Budgetary trade-offs of security expenditures in Turkey

This paper investigates the budgetary trade-off structure of security (defence+internal security) expenditures in Turkey for the period 1983-1998. A modified version of Todaros distributive share index of social welfare is used to quantify the impacts on the growth of primary budget expenditures of Security, Education, Health, General Administration, Infrastructure, and Social Services. We find that defence expenditures dominate overall security expenditures and are less affected in times of bottlenecks in the economy. A systematic pattern of negative budgetary trade-offs of security expenditures in terms of other components is not identified. We also analyse the expenditures of the Defence Industry Support Fund in an attempt to find the cost of the modernisation program to the economy.This paper investigates the budgetary trade-off structure of security (defence+internal security) expenditures in Turkey for the period 1983-1998. A modified version of Todaros distributive share index of social welfare is used to quantify the impacts on the growth of primary budget expenditures of Security, Education, Health, General Administration, Infrastructure, and Social Services. We find that defence expenditures dominate overall security expenditures and are less affected in times of bottlenecks in the economy. A systematic pattern of negative budgetary trade-offs of security expenditures in terms of other components is not identified. We also analyse the expenditures of the Defence Industry Support Fund in an attempt to find the cost of the modernisation program to the economy.

The role of defence on external indebtedness: An assessment of turkey

Turkey has been undergoing a severe economic crisis recently. Despite its low standing in terms of basic economic and welfare indicators, Turkey has been leading in arms imports. The pressing issues of macroeconomic imbalances are budget deficits, current account deficits and external debt burden. Previous work on the trade-off between defence and growth and between defence and budget deficits concludes that the presence of such trade-offs is not confirmed. As budget deficits are financed through internal and external debt, this paper attempts to explore to what extent defence might be contributing to Turkeys current account deficits and external indebtedness since the 1980s. Related data problems are also assessed.Turkey has been undergoing a severe economic crisis recently. Despite its low standing in terms of basic economic and welfare indicators, Turkey has been leading in arms imports. The pressing issues of macroeconomic imbalances are budget deficits, current account deficits and external debt burden. Previous work on the trade-off between defence and growth and between defence and budget deficits concludes that the presence of such trade-offs is not confirmed. As budget deficits are financed through internal and external debt, this paper attempts to explore to what extent defence might be contributing to Turkeys current account deficits and external indebtedness since the 1980s. Related data problems are also assessed.

Demand-pull and cost-push effects on labor income in Turkey, 1973 - 90

In this paper we attempt to assess the changes in the Turkish production structure, and labor income in particular, between the 1970s and the 1990s. During this period a shift has taken place from an inward-looking policy towards an outward-oriented one. For our analysis we use two partially closed (or extended) input–output models. The demand-driven model is traditional for this type of analysis and examines the effects of a demand pull (for example, an increase in exports). For an open economy, however, it is not only important to investigate the effects of a demand pull, but also to examine how a cost push (for example, an increase in import prices) affects total gross output, value added, or labor income, for example. To study the effects of a cost push we introduce the partially closed supply-driven input–output model. Instead of analyzing the effects of a specific exogenous demand pull or cost push, we focus on various types of multiplier.

Glass Ceiling in Academic Administration in Turkey: 1990s versus 2000s

This paper assesses the glass ceiling for academics in the Turkish universities with reference to top administration positions: rectors and deans. Glass ceiling indicators show that the glass ceiling thickened from the 1990s to late 2000s. The findings are discussed against the background of the transformation in the Turkish universities in the last decades and in the context of three areas of challenges: the hierarchy deeply rooted in the current higher education system, the restructuring scheme with the recently introduced public administration reform law and marketisation of higher education.

Measuring the extent of defence expenditures: The Turkish case with Turkish data

The procurement expenditures financed by the Defence Industry Fund, the main administering body of the Turkish modernization program since 1983, have been an overlooked issue. A comparative discussion is attempted on the extent of defence expenditures during 1980–1997 with national data, using various ratios of defence expenditures in the literature (e.g. wrt NI, GDP, total budget expenditures, health plus education expenditures) and accounting for the Fund expenditures. The main outcome is that starting in 1986, the defence allocations of Turkey are systematically underestimated with conventional measures based on budget data. It is also demonstrated that the direction of the arming trend is sensitive to underlying data.The procurement expenditures financed by the Defence Industry Fund, the main administering body of the Turkish modernization program since 1983, have been an overlooked issue. A comparative discussion is attempted on the extent of defence expenditures during 1980-1997 with national data, using various ratios of defence expenditures in the literature (e.g. wrt NI, GDP, total budget expenditures, health plus education expenditures) and accounting for the Fund expenditures. The main outcome is that starting in 1986, the defence allocations of Turkey are systematically underestimated with conventional measures based on budget data. It is also demonstrated that the direction of the arming trend is sensitive to underlying data.

DECOMPOSITION OF LABOUR DEMAND BY EMPLOYER SECTORS AND GENDER: FINDINGS FOR MAJOR EXPORTING SECTORS IN TURKEY

This paper attempts to provide insight into the likely impacts of the current global crisis on employment in Turkey. As this crisis hits the Turkish economy through a demand squeeze in the international market, our focus is on the labour demand generated by major export sectors. The decomposition of impacts with respect to gender is of particular interest given the significant gender imbalances in the labour market. The findings indicate that female (male) employment is most sensitive to wearing apparel (trade) exports. In general, employment generation potentials of major export sectors are found to be weaker for females and stronger in agriculture, trade and finance, while they are very limited in manufacturing for both genders.

Does Liberalization Reduce Foreign Trade Data Discrepancies? Counterevidence from Turkey, 1970–91

This paper questions the impact of protectionist and liberal trade policies on foreign trade data discrepancies. Official records of Turkish exports and imports data are compared with data of the major partner countries (OECD, Germany, USA, Italy, Switzerland, France, UK, Benelux) for the period 1970-91. An analysis of detailed data reveals that the patterns of discrepancies are not common to all countries in the pre- and post-liberal years (i.e. before and after 1980). Hence, the Turkish case does not provide full support for the expectation that faked invoicing disappears with the liberalization of the trade regime. In addition, Switzerland emerges as a very exceptional trade partner, as compared with other partners, for both imports and exports. Turkeys exports to Switzerland are overinvoiced up to 700% until 1985, the rate of overinvoicing decreases to 200% after then. On the other hand, imports from Switzerland are overinvoiced up to 250% until again 1985. Overinvoicing of imports disappears in the wake of 1983 December measures. A comparison of imports and exports data of Switzerland with data of the above stated countries reveals that Turkey is also an exceptional partner for Switzerland. The patterns of discrepancies in foreign trade data might be closely related to capital transactions, noting that Switzerland offers the world favourable conditions for financial transactions. We also note that general patterns can be related to those of some specific commodities which might act as a means of transferring capital because the details of the trade regime regulations concerning them can be easily identified. Yet, generally speaking, the consequences of policy implementations do not straightforwardly match with expectations.

Gender Budgeting in Turkey: An Assessment of Local Practices from the Well-Being Perspective

This paper introduces the basic methodology and general findings of the researchproject entitled «Public Policies, Local Governments, Gender Budgeting: Women Friendly Cities,Case of Turkey». The aim of the project was to analyse public policies at the local level, theservices and expenditures of the municipalities in particular from the gender well-being perspective.Main driver of the research was the expectation that promotion of gender mainstreamingin public policy design would have reflections in resource allocation in those pilot cities, whichcommitted to the United Nations Joint Program-Women Friendly Cities Project (UNJP-WFCP)in Turkey since 2006. Five WFCP cities in different geographical regions (Kars, Sanliurfa, Nevsehir,Izmir, Samsun) were chosen and each was coupled with five neigbouring cities (Erzurum,Diyarbakir, Kayseri, Manisa, Ordu). Comparative analyses were conducted by: 1. gender auditingof policy documents; 2. cross-checking of perceptions of local service providers with thoseof local women beneficiaries; and 3. de-construction of municipality budgets on the basis ofwomens capabilities. Our well-being gender budgeting exercises showed that UNJP-WFCP citieswere not much different from others in allocating funds to programmes that have the potentialto enhance womens capabilities. We discuss the interaction of multiplicity of issues whichneed to be accounted for in assessments of current and prospective policy practices.

Sustainability of Gender Budgeting in Local Administrations in Turkey: An Assessment from the Well-Being Perspective

This chapter follows up on research on Well-Being Gender Budget audits carried out in a selected number of municipalities in Turkey in 2013 and explores the sustainability of gender budgeting practices since then. The chapter traces the evidence of gender sensitivity in a limited number of municipal administrative bodies, strategies and activities that surfaced in strategic plans and performance programmes. A comparative analysis of findings identifies conditions for sustainability of the gender budgeting framework in local administrations in Turkey. Similarities and differences between the municipality budgets and programmes will also contribute to discussions in the academic and practitioner circles concerned with institutionalisation of gender budgeting worldwide.

Promoting investment in the Turkish construction sector: a structural path analysis

ABSTRACT The construction sector in Turkey boomed in the period between the turn of the millennium and the onset of the global crisis. This paper studies the employment generation effects of growth of this sector, taking into account that it not only depends on domestic production factors but also on imported inputs. In order to unravel the interactions of the construction sector with the rest of the economy, structural path analysis of both labour and imported intermediate input demand generation is used based on the 2002 and 2009 WIOD data for Turkey. The findings indicate that labour linkages weakened between 2002 and 2009, while import linkages became slightly stronger. The sectors that have played key roles in this are identified, as are the linkages between these. The findings have implications for the persistent unemployment and current account deficits in Turkey.