Gulcin Gumus

Public policies and motorcycle safety

Numerous studies have examined the effectiveness of alcohol and traffic policies in reducing automobile crashes and fatalities, but only a few have analyzed the impact of state-specific policies on motorcycle safety. Given the growing popularity and inherent safety risks of motorcycle riding, this study provides a comprehensive investigation of both fatal and non-fatal injuries. State-level longitudinal data from 1990 to 2005 are analyzed to determine how various alcohol and traffic policies impact motorcycle safety and whether there are differential effects by type of injury. The results consistently show that universal helmet laws have the most significant effect on both non-fatal and fatal injuries. Mandatory rider education programs and speed limits on rural interstates significantly impact non-fatal injuries.

Tax Incentives as a Solution to the Uninsured: Evidence from the Self-Employed

Between 1996 and 2003, a series of amendments were made to the Tax Reform Act of 1986 that gradually increased the tax deduction for health insurance purchases by the self-employed (SE) from 25 to 100 percent. We study how these changes have influenced the likelihood that a SE person has health insurance coverage as the policyholder. The Current Population Survey is used to construct a data set corresponding to 1995–2005. Both the difference-in-differences and price elasticity of demand estimates suggest that the series of tax deductions did not provide sufficient incentives for the SE to obtain health insurance coverage.

The Role of Alcohol Use in Emergency Department Episodes

This study investigates the association between alcohol use and emergency-department (ED) utilization in the United States using nationally representative data from the 2001 National Health Interview Survey (N = 33,326). Estimates from our probit models indicate that among men, current drinkers are less likely to have visited the ED in the past year than former drinkers. Among women, lifetime abstainers are less likely than current drinkers to have had an ED episode. Finally, frequency of binge drinking significantly increases the likelihood of ED visits for men. The results suggest that focusing solely on problem drinking provides a limited perspective.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Motorcycle Fatalities in the U.S.

The effects of business cycles on health outcomes in general, and on traffic fatalities in particular, have received much attention recently. In this paper, we focus on motorcycle safety and examine the impact of changing levels of economic activity on fatal crashes by motorcyclists in the United States. We analyze state-level longitudinal data with 1,104 state/year observations from the 1988-2010 Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Using the extensive motorcycle crash characteristics available in FARS, we examine not only total fatality rates but also rates decomposed by crash type, day, time, and the level of the motorcycle operators blood alcohol content. Our results are consistent with much of the existing literature showing that traffic fatality rates are pro-cyclical. The estimates suggest that a 10% increase in real income per capita is associated with a 10.4% rise in the total motorcycle fatality rate. Along with potential mechanisms, policymakers and public health officials should consider the effects of business cycles on motorcycle safety.

Income Inequality, Mobility, and the Welfare State: A Political Economy Model

In this paper, we set up a three-period stochastic overlapping generations model to analyze the implications of income inequality and mobility for demand for redistribution and social insurance. We model the size of two different public programs under the welfare state. We investigate bidimensional voting on the tax rates that determine the allocation of government revenues among transfer payments and old-age pensions. We show that the coalitions formed, the resulting political equilibria, and the demand for redistribution crucially depend on the level of income inequality and mobility.

Motorcycle fatalities among out-of-state riders and the role of universal helmet laws

Several studies have demonstrated that universal helmet laws (UHLs) and other motor vehicle policies are effective in reducing fatal and non-fatal motorcycle injuries. Although state policies can improve traffic safety overall, very little is known about how they affect different segments of motorcycle riders. In this paper, we investigate the differential effectiveness of such policies by license state of the rider (i.e., in-state versus out-of-state). From a policy perspective, this information gap is noteworthy because variations in state regulations may influence where individuals choose to ride. We use state-level longitudinal (1988-2008) data on motorcycle fatalities in the United States from the fatality analysis reporting system (FARS). Our results reconfirm the effectiveness of UHLs and offer new evidence suggesting that states without such policies may attract more risky riders from out-of-state. In particular, not having a UHL increases out-of-state rider fatalities by 18 percent and this effect is more pronounced for out-of-state riders who reside in a UHL state. These findings have important implications regarding unintended spillover effects of state-specific motor vehicle policies.

Alternative Paths to Parenthood: IVF or Child Adoption?

This article analyzes the effects of child adoption on the utilization of assisted reproductive technology (ART) in the United States. Using state‐level longitudinal data for 1999-2006, we show that ART use is responsive to changes in adoption markets. After controlling for state‐specific fixed effects, our estimates reveal that a 10% increase in adoptions leads to a 1.3%-1.5% decrease in the number of ART cycles performed. The responsiveness is higher when we consider infant adoptions, adoptions by older women, and international adoptions, while there is no substitutability between ART and adoption of related children.

Fast Times During Spring Breaks: Are Traffic Fatalities Another Consequence?

Every year in the United States, millions of college students travel for spring break, spending billions of dollars. We examine a potential adverse consequence of spring break that has received little attention in the literature – traffic safety. In particular, we estimate the impact of spring break season on fatal passenger vehicle crashes. Using daily county-level longitudinal data on traffic fatalities in popular spring break destinations from 1982-2011, we conduct separate analyses by age groups, license status, and alcohol involvement in the crash. Our findings indicate that passenger vehicle fatalities are significantly overrepresented during the spring break season.

Chapter 7 Universal Helmet Laws and Motorcycle Fatalities: A Longitudinal Analysis of Policy Changes

Universal helmet laws (UHLs) are widely believed to be effective in reducing motorcycle fatalities. In this chapter, we further investigate the effectiveness of such policies by focusing on their long-term impact as well as their effect on motorcycle use. Using state-level longitudinal data from 1975 to 2005, we estimate how the adoption and repeal of UHLs influence motorcycle safety. Our results confirm earlier findings that adoption of UHLs prevents fatalities, whereas repeals lead to higher fatality rates. We provide evidence that UHLs operate as intended, decreasing fatalities mainly by improving safety rather than by reducing motorcycle riding. Finally, using dynamic specifications, we show that the long-term effects of both adoption and repeal persist in the years beyond the policy change.

Effectiveness of public health spending on infant mortality in Florida, 2001–2014

Studies investigating the effectiveness of public health spending typically face two major challenges. One is the lack of data on individual program spending, which restricts researchers to rely on aggregate expenditures. The other is the failure to address issues of endogeneity and serial correlation between health outcomes and spending. In this study, we demonstrate that the use of specific spending items as opposed to overall spending, combined with Generalized Method of Moments estimation techniques can do a far better job in revealing the effectiveness of public health services on health outcomes. As an example, we consider the effects of infant-related public health programs on infant mortality rates. Focus on programs expressly related to maternal and infant health was made possible by a unique longitudinal dataset from the Florida Department of Health containing information for all 67 Florida counties spanning 2001 through 2014. Our empirical methodology, by addressing potential endogeneity issues along with serial correlation, allows us to estimate the causal impact of specific public health investments in maternal and infant-related programs on infant mortality. We find that a 10 percent increase in targeted public health spending per infant leads to a 2.07 percent decrease in infant mortality rates. We also find that targeted spending may be more effective in reducing infant mortality among blacks than among whites. The use of targeted spending data along with the Generalized Method of Moments technique can provide stronger evidence to guide future resource allocation and policy decisions in public health.