Gunnar Erikssen

Physical fitness as a predictor of mortality among healthy, middle-aged Norwegian men.

BACKGROUND Despite many studies suggesting that poor physical fitness is an independent risk factor for death from cardiovascular causes, the matter has remained controversial. We studied this question in a 16-year follow-up investigation of Norwegian men that began in 1972. METHODS Our study included 1960 healthy men 40 to 59 years of age (84 percent of those invited to participate). Conventional coronary risk factors and physical fitness were assessed at base line, with physical fitness measured as the total work performed on a bicycle ergometer during a symptom-limited exercise-tolerance test. RESULTS After an average follow-up time of 16 years, 271 men had died, 53 percent of them from cardiovascular disease. The relative risk of death from any cause in fitness quartile 4 (highest) as compared with quartile 1 (lowest) was 0.54 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.32 to 0.89; P = 0.015) after adjustment for age, smoking status, serum lipids, blood pressure, resting heart rate, vital capacity, body-mass index, level of physical activity, and glucose tolerance. Total mortality was similar among the subjects in fitness quartiles 1, 2, and 3 when the data were adjusted for these same variables. The adjusted relative risk of death from cardiovascular causes in fitness quartile 4 as compared with quartile 1 was 0.41 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.20 to 0.84; P = 0.013). The corresponding relative risks for quartiles 3 and 2 (as compared with quartile 1) were 0.45 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.22 to 0.92; P = 0.026) and 0.59 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.28 to 1.22; P = 0.15), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Physical fitness appears to be a graded, independent, long-term predictor of mortality from cardiovascular causes in healthy, middle-aged men. A high level of fitness was also associated with lower mortality from any cause.

Changes in physical fitness and changes in mortality

BACKGROUND Point estimates of physical fitness give important information on the risk of death in healthy people, but there is little information available on effects of sequential changes in physical fitness on mortality. We studied this latter aspect in healthy middle-aged men over a total follow-up period of 22 years. METHODS 2014 healthy men aged 40-60 years had a bicycle exercise test and clinical examination, and completed a questionnaire in 1972-75 (survey 1). This was repeated for 1756 (91%) of 1932 men still alive by Dec 31, 1982 (survey 2). The exercise scores were adjusted for age. The change in exercise scores between surveys was divided into quartiles (Q1=least fit, Q4=fittest). An adjusted Coxs proportional hazards model was used to study the association between changes in physical fitness and mortality, with the Q1 men used as controls. FINDINGS By Dec 31, 1994, 238 (17%) of the 1428 men had died, 120 from cardiovascular causes. There were 37 deaths in the Q4 group (19 cardiovascular); their relative risks of death were 0.45 (95% CI 0.29-0.69) for any cause and 0.47 (0.26-0.86) for cardiovascular causes. There was a graded, inverse relation between changes in physical fitness and mortality irrespective of physical fitness status at survey 1. INTERPRETATION Change in physical fitness in healthy middle-aged men is a strong predictor of mortality. Even small improvements in physical fitness are associated with a significantly lowered risk of death. If confirmed, these findings should be used to influence public health policy.

Exercise blood pressure predicts cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged men.

The outcome of 1999 apparently healthy men aged 40 to 59 years investigated from 1972 through 1975 was ascertained after 16 years to determine whether systolic blood pressure measured with subjects in the sitting position during a bicycle ergometer exercise test adds prognostic information on cardiovascular mortality beyond that of casual blood pressure measured after 5 minutes of supine rest. During a total follow-up of 31,984 patient years, 278 patients died, 150 from cardiovascular causes. Casual blood pressure and pulse pressure as well as peak exercise systolic blood pressure during 6 minutes on the starting workload of 600 kpm/min (approximately 100 W, 5880 J/min) were all related to cardiovascular mortality. The relative risk (RR) of dying from cardiovascular causes associated with an increment of 48.5 mmHg (= 2 SD) in systolic blood pressure at 600 kilopondmeter (kpm)/min was significant (RR = 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1-2.3, P = .040) even when adjusting for a large number of variables measured in the present study, including age, exercise capacity, smoking habits, and casual blood pressures. The influence of blood pressure at 600 kpm/min was so strong that the predictive value of resting casual blood pressures became nonsignificant when these were analyzed as continuous variables also including exercise blood pressure as a covariate. However, the maximal systolic blood pressure during the exercise test was unrelated to cardiovascular mortality.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Exercise Blood Pressure Predicts Mortality From Myocardial Infarction

Apparently healthy men (n=1999, 40 to 59 years old) were investigated from 1972 through 1975 to determine whether systolic blood pressure during bicycle ergometer exercise predicts morbidity and mortality from myocardial infarction beyond that of casual blood pressure taken after 5 minutes of supine rest. During a follow-up of 31 984 patient-years (average, 16 years), 235 subjects had myocardial infarctions, of which 143 were nonfatal and 92 were fatal. Exercise blood pressure was more strongly related than casual blood pressure to both morbidity and mortality from myocardial infarction. Among 520 men with casual systolic blood pressure = 140 mm Hg, 304 increased their systolic blood pressure to > or = 200 mm Hg during 6 minutes of exercise at an initial workload of 600 kpm/min. These 304 men had an excessive risk of myocardial infarction (18.8% versus 9.5% among the 1294 men with casual blood pressure < 140 mm Hg and exercise blood pressure < 200 mm Hg; P < .001). As many as 58% of those with myocardial infarction in this group died, compared with 33% (range, 26% to 35%) for all other groups (P=.0011), including those with casual blood pressure > or = 140 mm Hg and exercise blood pressure < 200 mm Hg. Thus, exercise blood pressure is a stronger predictor than casual blood pressure of morbidity and mortality from myocardial infarction, and an early rise in systolic blood pressure during exercise adds prognostic information about mortality from myocardial infarction among otherwise healthy middle-aged men with mildly elevated casual blood pressure. We suggest that blood pressure taken during standardized exercise testing may distinguish between severe and less severe hypertension.

Heart rate increase and maximal heart rate during exercise as predictors of cardiovascular mortality: a 16-year follow-up study of 1960 healthy men.

BackgroundResting heart rate is directly associated and maximal exercise-induced heart rate inversely associated with cardiovascular mortality, and therefore their difference might contain prognostic information from both variables. The comparative long-term prognostic values of maximal exercise-induced heart rate and of the difference between it and resting heart rate were studied in apparently healthy middle-aged men. MethodsResting heart rate and maximal exercise-induced heart rate were measured, and their difference calculated, in 1960 apparently healthy men aged 40–59 years, and mortality was recorded over a period of 16 years. Conventional coronary risk factors were assessed at baseline. ResultsBoth the difference between the two heart rates and the maximal exercise-induced heart rate were strongly, independently and inversely associated with cardiovascular mortality after adjustment for age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, lung function, glucose tolerance, serum cholesterol level, serum triglycerides level, physical fitness and exercise ECG findings. The adjusted relative risk of cardiovascular death in heart-rate difference quartiles 3 and 4 compared with that in quartile 1 (the lowest heart-rate difference quartile) was 0.54 (95% confidence interval 0.33–0.86; P= 0.009). The corresponding value for maximal exercise-induced heart rate was 0.56 (95% confidence interval 0.34–0.89; P=0.018). Within the lowest heart-rate difference quartile, but not within the lowest maximal exercise-induced heart rate quartile, a further, strong, negative gradient in cardiovascular mortality was observed. In the high working capacity range, low heart-rate difference but not low maximal exercise-induced heart rate predicted very high cardiovascular disease mortality. Heart-rate difference and maximal exercise-induced heart rate were also inversely associated with non-cardiovascular disease mortality. ConclusionsBoth heart-rate difference and maximal exercise-induced heart rate were strong, graded, long-term predictors of cardiovascular mortality among apparently healthy middle-aged men, independent of age, physical fitness and conventional coronary risk factors. However, low heart-rate difference was a better predictor than low maximal exercise-induced heart rate for recognizing individuals who were at particularly high risk of dying prematurely from cardiovascular diseases.

Lung function, smoking and mortality in a 26-year follow-up of healthy middle-aged males

Lung function has been associated with mortality after adjusting for other risk factors; however, few studies have adjusted for physical fitness and reported separate analyses according to smoking status. In 1972–1975, spirometry, clinical and physiological parameters were recorded in 1,623 apparently healthy males aged 40–59 yrs. After 26 yrs of follow-up, the current authors investigated the association between baseline lung function and mortality, adjusting for smoking, physical fitness and other potential factors. By 2000, 615 individuals (38%) had died, with 308 (50%) of these deaths from cardiovascular (CV) causes. Forced expiratory volume in one second was a predictor of all-cause mortality (risk ratio (RR) 1.10 per reduction of 10%) after adjusting for smoking, physical fitness, age, systolic blood pressure, body mass index and serum cholesterol. The corresponding multivariate RR was 1.07 for CV causes and 1.34 for respiratory death. In conclusion, in stratified analyses among current and former smokers, forced expiratory volume in one second % predicted was a strong independent predictor of all-cause mortality and respiratory death among current smokers. Forced expiratory volume in one second % predicted was not associated with mortality among never-smokers.

Supine and exercise systolic blood pressure predict cardiovascular death in middle-aged men

Aim and methods The outcome of 1999 apparently healthy men, aged 40–59 years, initially investigated in the period 1972–1975, has previously been ascertained at 7 and 16 year follow-ups. This has now been repeated after 21 years, to determine whether seated systolic blood pressure (BP) during a bicycle ergometer exercise test adds prognostic information on cardiovascular (CV) mortality beyond that of systolic BP measured after 5 min of supine rest. Results After 21 years, 41 979 years of observation, 470 patients had died, 255 from CV causes. Supine systolic BP [2 SD increase: relative risk (RR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3–2.0, P < 0.0001], 6 min exercise systolic BP (2 SD increase: RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3–2.0, P < 0.0001) on the starting workload of 600 kpm/min (≈ 100 W , 5880 J/min) and maximal systolic BP (2 SD increase: RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2–1.9, P = 0.0005) during work were all related to CV mortality when adjusting for a large number of variables measured in the present study including age, exercise capacity, heart rates, smoking habits, glucose tolerance and serum cholesterol. When including other systolic BPs in the continuous multivariate analysis, supine systolic BP (2 SD increase: RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.04–1.9, P = 0.029) and 6 min systolic BP at 600 kpm/min (2 SD increase: RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.06–1.9, P = 0.017) were independent predictors of CV death but not maximal systolic BP during exercise (2 SD increase: RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.7–1.2, P = 0.95). Conclusion These results are different from the mortality data at 16 years, when the independent predictive effect of supine systolic BP was cancelled out by 6 min exercise systolic BP at 600 kpm/min. Twenty-one years of follow-up of 1999 apparently healthy men disclose independently predictive information on CV death, of both supine systolic BP and 6 min exercise systolic BP taken at an early moderate workload. The influence of maximal exercise systolic BP on CV death is however cancelled out by the two other systolic BPs.

Upper Normal Blood Pressures Predict Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Healthy Middle-Aged Men: A 35-Year Follow-Up Study

Hypertension is the most prevalent risk factor for incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Recently, even high normal blood pressures (BPs) have been established as predictive of AF in women. We aimed to study the long-term impact of upper normal BP on incident AF in a population-based study of middle-aged men. From 1972 to 1975, 2014 healthy Norwegian men were included in a prospective cardiovascular survey and underwent a comprehensive clinical examination including standardized BP measurements. During up to 35 years of follow-up, 270 men were documented with AF by scrutinizing all hospital discharges. Risk estimations for incident AF were analyzed in quartiles of BP using multivariate adjusted Cox proportional hazards. Men with baseline systolic BP ≥140 mm Hg and upper normal BP 128 to 138 mm Hg had 1.60-fold (95% CI 1.15–2.21) and 1.50-fold (1.10–2.03) risk of AF, respectively, compared with men with BP <128 mm Hg. Baseline diastolic BP ≥80 mm Hg increased the risk of incident AF 1.79-fold (95% CI 1.28–2.59) compared with diastolic BP <80 mm Hg. When adjusting for the occurrence of diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular diseases before an AF event, the results still maintained significance. Additional analyses, on average 7 years after baseline, including men still healthy, showed that sustained upper normal systolic BP remained a significant predictor of subsequent AF. In conclusion, upper normal blood pressures are long-term predictors of incident AF in initially healthy middle-aged men.

Long term effects of smoking on physical fitness and lung function : a longitudinal study of 1393 middle aged Norwegian men for seven years

Abstract Objective:to study association between smoking habits and long term decline in physical fitness and lung function in middle aged men who remained healthy. Design: Baseline and follow up measurements performed during 1972-5 and 1980-2 respectively. Setting:National University Hospital of Oslo, Norway. Subjects:1393 men aged 40-59 at baseline who were all healthy at baseline and at follow up. Main outcome measures:Forced expiratory volume in one second and physical fitness (defined as total work done during a symptom limited bicycle ergometer test divided by body weight. Results: Initial fitness was substantially lower among 347 persistent smokers than among 791 persistent non-smokers (1349 J/kg v 1618 J/kg), as was initial forced expiratory volume (3341 ml v 3638 ml). Mean (95% confidence interval) decline in fitness over 7.2 years was 217 (185 to 249) J/kg among smokers compared with 86 (59 to 113) J/kg among non-smokers (P<0.001). Corresponding declines in forced expiratory volume were 271 (226 to 316) ml in smokers and 116 (85 to 147) ml in non-smokers (P<0.001). Differences between smokers and non-smokers remained practically unchanged after adjustment for age and level of physical activity. Changes in fitness and forced expiratory volume among 199 men who had stopped smoking mimicked the findings for persistent non-smokers, and 56 men who started smoking presented findings close to those of persistent smokers Conclusion:Decline in physical fitness and lung function among healthy middle aged men was considerably greater among smokers than among nonsmokers and could not be explained by differences in age and physical activity.

The Terminal Part of the QT Interval (T peak to T end): A Predictor of Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background: The terminal part of the QT interval (T peak to T end; Tp‐e)—an index for dispersion of cardiac repolarization—is often prolonged in patients experiencing malignant ventricular arrhythmias after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We wanted to explore whether high Tp‐e might predict mortality or fatal arrhythmia post‐AMI.