Gunnar Sander

Arctic futures: conceptualizations and images of a changing Arctic

Abstract The future of the Arctic is an issue of increasing concern. During the last five years, a large number of reports, books, and articles have appeared which directly focus on what happens in the Arctic. This article summarizes the findings of an assessment of more than 50 such studies. It aims to identify the basic assumptions, analytical approaches, and future images that characterize current thinking about the Arctic. The article shows that the studies are diverse in thematic scope and background. Different methodologies are applied to envision the future of the Arctic. The future images range from boom to doom, from escalating conflicts to peaceful collaboration. There is a strong agreement that the Arctic is subject to profound change, driven by developments outside the region. Simultaneously, the studies display the many uncertainties that the future of the Arctic is imbued with. This article does not attempt to sketch an alternative version of the future of the Arctic, but rather to highlight how future studies can stimulate debate, create preparedness for change, offer direction, and inform policy.

International Legal Obligations for Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment in the Arctic Ocean

Environmental impact assessment ( EIA ) and strategic environmental assessment ( SEA ) are procedures for the prior assessment of impacts of proposed developments before decisions are taken. Customary law and most international agreements relevant for the Arctic Ocean are unspecific about assessment tools and content. The Espoo Convention and its SEA Protocol are the only specialised instruments available. They do not cover marine activities well, and not all the Arctic Ocean coastal states are parties. Other problems in the assessment regime are related to uneven geographical and sectoral coverage. Weaknesses may be addressed both globally in the negotiations on a new instrument under the Law of the Sea Convention ( LOSC ) on biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction, and in a regional process under the Arctic Council. Important improvements would be the creation of a more specific default mechanism for prior assessment of marine activities and closer linkage of assessments with substantive goals.