Gustav Engström

Looming global-scale failures and missing institutions

Navigating global changes requires a coevolving set of collaborative, global institutions. Energy, food, and water crises; climate disruption; declining fisheries; increasing ocean acidification; emerging diseases; and increasing antibiotic resistance are examples of serious, intertwined global-scale challenges spawned by the accelerating scale of human activity. They are outpacing the development of institutions to deal with them and their many interactive effects. The core of the problem is inducing cooperation in situations where individuals and nations will collectively gain if all cooperate, but each faces the temptation to take a free ride on the cooperation of others. The nation-state achieves cooperation by the exercise of sovereign power within its boundaries. The difficulty to date is that transnational institutions provide, at best, only partial solutions, and implementation of even these solutions can be undermined by internation competition and recalcitrance.

Three necessary conditions for establishing effective Sustainable Development Goals in the Anthropocene

The purpose of the United Nations-guided process to establish Sustainable Development Goals is to galvanize governments and civil society to rise to the interlinked environmental, societal, and economic challenges we face in the Anthropocene. We argue that the process of setting Sustainable Development Goals should take three key aspects into consideration. First, it should embrace an integrated social-ecological system perspective and acknowledge the key dynamics that such systems entail, including the role of ecosystems in sustaining human wellbeing, multiple cross-scale interactions, and uncertain thresholds. Second, the process needs to address trade-offs between the ambition of goals and the feasibility in reaching them, recognizing biophysical, social, and political constraints. Third, the goal-setting exercise and the management of goal implementation need to be guided by existing knowledge about the principles, dynamics, and constraints of social change processes at all scales, from the individual to the global. Combining these three aspects will increase the chances of establishing and achieving effective Sustainable Development Goals.

Resilience offers escape from trapped thinking on poverty alleviation

The complex roles of nature and culture in poverty traps call for diverse and often transformative poverty alleviation strategies. The poverty trap concept strongly influences current research and policy on poverty alleviation. Financial or technological inputs intended to “push” the rural poor out of a poverty trap have had many successes but have also failed unexpectedly with serious ecological and social consequences that can reinforce poverty. Resilience thinking can help to (i) understand how these failures emerge from the complex relationships between humans and the ecosystems on which they depend and (ii) navigate diverse poverty alleviation strategies, such as transformative change, that may instead be required. First, we review commonly observed or assumed social-ecological relationships in rural development contexts, focusing on economic, biophysical, and cultural aspects of poverty. Second, we develop a classification of poverty alleviation strategies using insights from resilience research on social-ecological change. Last, we use these advances to develop stylized, multidimensional poverty trap models. The models show that (i) interventions that ignore nature and culture can reinforce poverty (particularly in agrobiodiverse landscapes), (ii) transformative change can instead open new pathways for poverty alleviation, and (iii) asset inputs may be effective in other contexts (for example, where resource degradation and poverty are tightly interlinked). Our model-based approach and insights offer a systematic way to review the consequences of the causal mechanisms that characterize poverty traps in different agricultural contexts and identify appropriate strategies for rural development challenges.

Energy Balance Climate Models, Damage Reservoirs and the Time Profile of Climate Change Policy

A simplified energy balance climate model is considered with the global mean temperature as the state variable, and an endogenous ice line. The movements of the ice line towards the Poles are associated with damage reservoirs where initial damages are high and then eventually vanish as the ice caps vanish and the damage reservoir is exhausted. We couple this climate model with a simple economic growth model and we show that the endogenous ice line induces a nonlinearity. This nonlinearity when combined with two sources of damages - the conventional damages due to temperature increase and the reservoir damages - generates multiple steady states and Skiba points. It is shown that the policy ramp implied by this model calls for high mitigation now. Simulation results suggest that the policy ramp could be U-shaped instead of the monotonically increasing with low starting mitigation gradualist policy ramp.

Energy Balance Climate Models and the Spatial Structure of Optimal Mitigation Policies

We develop a one-dimensional energy balance climate model with heat transportation across locations. We introduce the concept of potential world GDP at time t, and we introduce, through the temperature function, spatial characteristics into the damage function which make damages latitude dependent. We solve the social planner’s problem and characterize the competitive equilibrium. We define optimal taxes on fossil fuels and profit taxes on firms that extract fossil fuels. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes is not possible, then optimal taxes are spatially non homogeneous and tend to be lower at the poor latitudes. The degree of spatial differentiation of optimal taxes depend on heat transportation. We also locate sufficient conditions for optimal mitigation policies to have rapid ramp-up initially and then decrease over time. By employing the properties of the spatial model and approximating solutions, we show how to study the impact of thermal transport across latitudes on welfare inequality.

Operationalising a social–ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean

We propose a framework to support management that builds on a social–ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean. We illustrate the framework’s application for two policy-relevant scenarios of climate-driven change, picturing a shift in zooplankton composition and alternatively a crab invasion. We analyse archetypical system dynamics between the socio-economic, the natural, and the governance systems in these scenarios. Our holistic approach can help managers identify looming problems arising from complex system interactions and prioritise among problems and solutions, even when available data are limited.

Capturing the value of green space in urban parks in a sustainable urban planning and design context: pros and cons of hedonic pricing

Sixty percent of the land that will be urban in 2030 has yet to be built. Contemporary urban development is unsustainable and focus is on building dense, often at the expense of urban green space (UGS), at the same time as our understanding of links between green spaces and human well-being, especially health, is increasing. There is a need to better understand and analyze human well-being qualities of UGS in a planning context. Our aim is to increase this understanding by analyzing the pros and cons of hedonic pricing in this context. Hedonic pricing is commonly used for analyzing benefits associated with UGS to make them more visible and to provide support for urban planning. However, the validity of this approach has been questioned. To increase the accuracy of a hedonic pricing method we incorporate state-of-the-art methods to assess the value of public parks in a case study. Although our results suggest that urban parks indeed have a positive effect on property value and that this effect tends to increase with reduced distance to the parks, the hedonic pricing information is not enough to make well-advised decisions in a sustainable planning context. We thus suggest (1) including and quantifying additional health benefit dimensions and (2) replacing straight-line measures with an axial line step distance measure, to better capture accessibility. To better capture the range of benefits generated by urban parks, irrespective of whether these benefits are enjoyed in direct relation to the park or not, we suggest complementing hedonic pricing via (3) applying an ecosystem service lens, thus also improving the accuracy of trade-off and synergy analysis Also, a sustainable planning approach will benefit from (4) taking the surrounding land use configuration into account for optimizing the different values of urban parks.