Matz Dahlberg

On the Vote Purchasing Behavior of Incumbent Governments

In this paper we investigate whether there are any tactical motives behind the distribution of grants from central to lower-level governments. We use a temporary grant program that is uniquely suitable for testing theories of vote-purchasing behavior of incumbent governments. The temporary grant program differs from traditional intergovernmental grants in several aspects, most importantly in the sovereign decision-making power given to the incumbent central government. We find support for the hypothesis that the incumbent government used the grant program under study to win votes. In particular, we find strong support for the Lindbeck–Weibull/Dixit–Londregan model, in which parties distribute transfers to regions where there are many swing voters. This result is statistically as well as economically significant. We do not, however, find any support for the model that predicts that the incumbent government transfers money to its own supporters.

Inequality and Crime: Separating the Effects of Permanent and Transitory Income

Earlier studies on income inequality and crime have typically used total income or total earnings. However, it is quite likely that it is changes in permanent rather than in transitory income that affects crime rates. The purpose of this paper is therefore to disentangle the two effects by, first, estimating region-specific inequality in permanent and transitory income and, second, estimating crime equations with the two separate income components as explanatory variables. The results indicate that it is important to separate the two effects; while an increase in the inequality in permanent income yields a positive and significant effect on total crimes and three different property crimes, an increase in the inequality in transitory income has no significant effect on any type of crime. Using a traditional, aggregate, measure of income yields mainly insignificant effects on crime.

An Examination of the Dynamic Behaviour of Local Governments using GMM Bootstrapping Methods

Even though recent Monte Carlo evidence has shown that the use of bootstrap critical values, instead of asymptotic ones, improves the size of the tests substantially, empirical applications using GMM bootstrap techniques are largely missing. In this paper, the dynamic relationship between local government revenues and expenditures is re-investigated using GMM bootstrapping techniques on a panel of 265 Swedish municipalities over the period 1979-1987. A lag of one year is found in the expenditures equation, while no dynamics is found in the own-source revenues and grants equations. These results, while contrasting sharply with those obtained when asymptotic critical values are used, are well in line with the theoretical explanations given in the literature for dynamic behaviour in the local public sector. Copyright

The revenues-expenditures nexus: panel data evidence from Swedish municipalities

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between local government revenues and expenditures in Sweden. Results from a panel of 265 municipalities covered over the time period 1974-87 show that (i) expenditures cause revenues, while revenues do not cause expenditures, (ii) intergovernmental grants both cause and are caused by expenditures and revenues, (iii) lags of four years are needed to describe the dynamics among the fiscal variables and (iv) the parameters of the expenditures equation are time varying. These results cast doubt on static modeling of local government activities and on models imposing time invariant parameters without ever testing for it.

Antidepressants and the suicide rate: is there really a connection?

Recent research claims that the major part of the observed reduction in suicide rates during the 1990s can be explained by the increase in the prescription of antidepressants. However, this conclusion is based on research that only looks at raw correlations; confounding effects from other variables are not controlled for. Using a rich Swedish data set, we reinvestigate the issue. After controlling for other covariates, observed as well as unobserved, that might affect the suicide rate, we find, overall, no statistically significant effects from antidepressants on the suicide rate; when we do get significant effects, they are positive for young persons. Regarding the latter result, more research is needed before any firm policy conclusion can be made.

Power properties of the Sargan test in the presence of measurement errors in dynamic panels

This article investigates the power properties of the Sargan test in the presence of measurement errors in dynamic panel data models. The conclusion from Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and an application on the data used by Arellano and Bond (1991), is that in the very likely case of measurement errors in either the dependent or any of the independent variables, we will, if we rely on the Sargan test, quite likely accept a misspecified model and end up with biased results.

Estimating Preferences for Local Public Services Using Migration Data

Using Swedish micro data, the paper examines the impact of local public services on community choice. The choice of community is modelled as a choice between a discrete set of alternatives. It is found that, given taxes, high spending on child care attracts migrants. Less conclusive results are obtained with respect to the role of spending on education and elderly care. High local taxes deter migrants. Relaxing the independence of the irrelevant alternatives assumption, by estimating a mixed logit model, has a significant impact on the results.

Revisiting the Relationship between Ethnic Diversity and Preferences for Redistribution : Reply

Here, we respond to the comments raised by Nekby and Pettersson‐Lidbom on our paper Dahlberg et al. (2012, Journal of Political Economy 120, 41–76). We argue that our estimates are internally valid, but we acknowledge that the external validity could have been discussed more thoroughly.