H. Allen Klaiber

Is the Shale Energy Boom a Bust for Nearby Residents? Evidence from Housing Values in Pennsylvania

Profitable extraction of previously inaccessible shale energy reserves has led to the rapid expansion of shale exploration across the United States. We present one of the first empirical studies to measure the impact of early shale exploration on surrounding homeowners using data from Washington County, Pennsylvania, from 2008 to mid 2010. We find that property values are negatively impacted by shale gas exploration activity, but this impact depends on the proximity and intensity of shale activity and is largely transitory. The negative effects are larger for households located close to major highways and sourced with private well water.

An Embarrassment of Riches: Confronting Omitted Variable Bias and Multi-Scale Capitalization in Hedonic Price Models

Many researchers have addressed concerns of omitted variable bias in hedonic price models through the use of spatial fixed effects. We argue that this approach does not consider the biases introduced by effects that overlap the zone of capitalization for nonmarket goods. We show this bias can dominate the usual omitted variable bias using data on developer-provided open space. We control for multiscale capitalization and omitted variables simultaneously by extending the Hausman-Taylor estimator where the panel component of the estimator is defined over repeated transactions within neighborhoods rather than the traditional definition following a unique cross-sectional unit through time.

Measuring Price Elasticities for Residential Water Demand with Limited Information

This paper exploits the seasonal and annual changes in marginal prices for water to estimate the price elasticity of demand by residential households for water. It uses the changes in distributions of water used at the census block group levels in response to changes in marginal prices of water for matched months across years. This strategy reduces the interaction effects of outdoor use and demographic factors in determining responsiveness to price. By comparing years that vary in overall water availability, the framework can recover measures of how responses to price vary with season and drought conditions. The application is the urban Phoenix metropolitan area. (JEL H42, Q25)

Does Organic Command a Premium When the Food is Already Local

The emergence of community supported agriculture (CSA) farms has been recognized as a new way for small farms to remain competitive while engaging in their local community through direct marketing. In this study, we report on first revealed preference valuation of CSA attributes using data on share prices and CSA characteristics for the summer 2012 growing season. Using data covering 453 CSA farms in Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, we develop a hedonic model based on firm-level prices to reveal consumer valuations of CSA attributes, including various types of organic certification. We also test for competition in the CSA market using a model of firm entry to evaluate whether firms appear perfectly competitive, which is a requirement when using firm-level prices in our hedonic analysis. Our results reveal a price premium of approximately 7% for USDA organic certification, although this value is heterogeneous across states. We find no premium associated with competing certified naturally grown programs. Finally, we find that CSA farms exhibit little market power and appear to act competitively even with few market entrants.

Quasi Experiments, Hedonic Models, and Estimating Trade-offs for Local Amenities

This paper evaluates whether the property value capitalization effects measured with quasi-experimental methods offer reliable estimates of willingness to pay for changes in amenities. We propose the use of a market simulation as a robustness check. Two applications establish the method’s relevance. The first examines the conversion of land cover from desert to wet landscape. The second examines cleanup of hazardous waste sites. We find that even when quasi-experimental methods have access to ideal instruments, their performance in measuring general equilibrium willingness to pay cannot be assumed ideal. It needs to be evaluated considering the specific features of each application. (JEL Q51)

The Role of Theoretical Restrictions in Forecasting with Inverse Demand Models

In recent years, the theoretical restrictions of consumer demand have been examined in post-sample forecasting exercises. However, this work has uniformly ignored associated curvature restrictions. In this paper we evaluate a series of Normalized Quadratic Inverse Demand System (NQIDS) specifications by using rolling windows and generating one- to four-step ahead forecasts. Data for eleven categories of South Atlantic fish spanning 1980 through 2001 are used in estimation. In addition to the NQIDS, we also examine the forecasting performance of a Cobb-Douglas model with autoregressive errors. We find that the best predictions are achieved using a composite forecast.

Developing general equilibrium benefit analyses for social programs: An introduction and example

Benefit-Cost analyses of social programs often involve complex interactions between market and non-market goods. In this paper we outline one conceptual framework for incorporating the general equilibrium effects into benefit-cost analyses of changes in social programs. The goal is to develop models that are capable of capturing the interactions that take place between decisions involving marketed goods together with their effects on non-market goods and the reverse –changes in non-market goods that cause induce changes in decisions about marketed goods. These types of feedback effects are likely to result from large changes in social programs. These effects are compounded by the potential for endogenous realized outcomes that arise as a result of household actions taken in response to proposed policies. To demonstrate the importance of our conceptual discussion of these general equilibrium effects, we present an empirical example of our general equilibrium framework using teacher cuts in response to budget pressures in Maricopa County, Arizona. We find substantial differences in willingness to pay measures between models which account for endogenous education outcomes in a general equilibrium setting and those which ignore the linkages between market (housing) and non-market (education) goods in a partial equilibrium setting

Unconventional Shale Gas Development, Risk Perceptions, and Averting Behavior: Evidence from Bottled Water Purchases

Technological innovation has made extraction of natural gas from deep shale formations economically viable. While unconventional shale gas development is seen as an economic benefit, concerns have been raised about the environmental and health risks associated with the extraction process. We combine GIS data on unconventional shale gas development in Pennsylvania and Ohio with household data on bottled water purchases to assess the impact that perceived risks to drinking water from unconventional shale development have had on household well-being using a treatment effects design. In our preferred triple difference models with time-varying treatment effects, we find per household averting expenditure in 2010 ranges from

Maintaining Public Goods: The Capitalized Value of Local Park Renovations

10.74 in our full sample specification to

Missing the Forest for the Trees: Balancing Shale Exploration and Conservation Goals Through Policy

15.64 when omitting urban counties more likely to contain public water supplies. Converting the sample-average averting expenditure of