H.T. van Velthuizen

Can China Feed Itself? An Analysis of China's Food Prospects with Special Reference to Water Resources

SUMMARY Water is certainly an important factor in Chinas food security. Some authors have argued that up to 70% of the countrys grain production depends on irrigation. Since the water resources for agriculture in northern China are getting increasingly exhausted and diverted to urban and industrial consumption, they have published grim predictions of food shortages. The following analysis uses a detailed agro-climatic model to estimate Chinas maximum grain production potential under rain-fed and irrigated conditions. It shows that far less than 70% of Chinas grain production critically depends on irrigation. Large areas in the south and some areas in the northeast can produce substantial amounts of grain using only natural precipitation. According to our model, some 492 million tons of grain can be produced at current technology without additional irrigation. However, depending on diet, this may still not be enough for Chinas grain demand in 2025, which was estimated at up to 650 million tons. Only with additional irrigation would China be able to produce these amounts of grain. According to our model, the country has a grain production potential of some 672 million tons, if irrigation is available in those areas, that do not have enough precipitation for rain-fed cultivation. Water conservation in irrigation and the development of water resources for agriculture is therefore critical for Chinas food security.