M.M. Shah

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5′×5′ latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.

Population Belongs on the Johannesburg Agenda

The forthcoming World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg (August 26-September 4, 2002) has been set by the United Nations to consider strategies toward sustainable development in all its dimensions. Hence, its mandate is broader than that of the Rio 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). Population issues have so far been discussed in a separate series of World Population Conferences (Bucharest 1974, Mexico City 1984, Cairo 1994). With no new World Population Conference scheduled for 2004 and Johannesburg having a mandate that is stated to explicitly include social and economic aspects, population as a key component of sustainable development should figure prominently on the Johannesburg agenda. Yet, after the third of four preparatory meetings for Johannesburg (which ended in New York on April 5th), consideration of population is completely absent. The reasons for this are not entirely clear. We assume that they have to do with the fear of entering into political controversies over abortion. We are concerned that, despite its broader mandate, in most countries inputs to Johannesburg are being prepared mainly by environment ministries who have little experience in dealing with population questions.