Hae-Dong Kim

Possible relationship between North Korean total rainfall and Arctic Oscillation in May

In this study, a negative correlation between the rainfall over North Korea in May and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the same month is analyzed. The reasons for rainfall declines in the positive AO phase are as follows: (a) the strengthening of anomalous anticyclone in the Maritime Province of Siberia, (b) the weakening of the subtropical western North Pacific high, and (c) the stabilization across all the atmospheric layers in North Korea. Anomalous anticyclone strengthened in the Maritime Province of Siberia plays a critical role in placing the North Korean region under the influence of anomalous northeasterlies. In addition, the development of the anomalous northeasterlies results in the supply of a large amount of cold and dry air into North Korea. This consequently stabilizes the atmosphere in North Korea. Moreover, the reinforcement of anomalous cold sea surface temperature in the mid-latitude region of East Asia is found to be another reason for the atmospheric stabilization.

Comparison of the impact of the Arctic Oscillation and Eurasian teleconnection on interannual variation in East Asian winter temperatures and monsoon

The large-scale impacts of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Eurasian teleconnection (EU) on the East Asian winter climate are compared for the past 34 winters, focusing on (1) interannual monthly to seasonal temperature variability, (2) East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and (3) the Siberian high (SH) and cold surge. Regression analysis reveals warming by AO and cooling by EU over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa (i.e., warm phase: +AO, −EU; cold phase: −AO, +EU). The EU impact was found to be comparable to the AO impact. For example, warm (cold) months during the warm (cold) AO phase are found clearly when the AO is in the same warm (cold) EU phase. No significant correlation was found between East Asian temperature and the AO when the warm (cold) AO coincided with the cold (warm) EU. The well-known relationship of strong (weak) SH during the cold (warm) AO phase was observed significantly more often when the AO was in the same cold (warm) EU phase. Also, the indices of EAWM, cold surge, and SH were more highly correlated with the EU than with the AO. The advective temperature change and associated circulation demonstrate that the large-scale field including the SH over the mid-latitude Asian inland is better represented by the EU, influencing the East Asian climate. These results suggest that the impact of EU should be considered more important than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Latitudinal Change of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity in the Western North Pacific

This study obtained the latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) show maximum intensity and applied statistical change-point analysis on the time series data of the average annual values. The analysis results found that the latitude of the TC maximum intensity increased from 1999. To investigate the reason behind this phenomenon, the difference of the average latitude between 1999 and 2013 and the average between 1977 and 1998 was analyzed. In a difference of 500 hPa streamline between the two periods, anomalous anticyclonic circulations were strong in 30°–50°N, while anomalous monsoon trough was located in the north of South China Sea. This anomalous monsoon trough was extended eastward to 145°E. Middle-latitude region in East Asia is affected by the anomalous southeasterlies due to these anomalous anticyclonic circulations and anomalous monsoon trough. These anomalous southeasterlies play a role of anomalous steering flows that make the TCs heading toward region in East Asia middle latitude. As a result, TCs during 1999–2013 had higher latitude of the maximum intensity compared to the TCs during 1977–1998.

Climatological Features of Korea-Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

The present study analyzed the interdecadal variation by applying the statistical change-point analysis to the frequency of the tropical cyclone (TC) that landed in the Korean Peninsula (KP) for the recent 54 years (1951 to 2004) and performed cluster classification of the Korea-landfall TC tracks using a Fuzzy Clustering Method (FCM). First, in the interdecadal variation analysis, frequency of TC that landed in the KP was largely categorized into three periods: high frequency period from 1951 to 1965, low frequency period from 1966 to 1985, and high frequency period from 1986 to 2004. The cluster analysis result of the Korea-landfall TC tracks produced the optimum number of clusters as four. In more detail, Cluster A refers to a pattern of landing in the southern coast in the KP starting from East China Sea followed by heading north while Cluster B refers to a pattern of landing in the west coast of the Korean Peninsula, also starting from East China Sea followed by heading north. Cluster C refers to a pattern of landing in the southern region of the west coast in the KP moving from mainland China while Cluster D refers to a pattern of landing in the mid-north region of the west coast in the Korean Peninsula, also moving from mainland China.

Interdecadal variation of TC frequency in Japan

This study analyzed the climate regime shift using statistical change-point analysis on the time-series tropical cyclone (TC) frequency that affected Japan in July to September. The result showed that there was a significant change in 1995, and since then, it showed a trend of rapidly decreasing frequency. To determine the reason for this, differences between 1995 to 2012 (9512) period and 1978 to 1994 (7894) period were analyzed. First, regarding TC genesis, TCs during the 9512 period showed a characteristic of genesis from the southeast quadrant of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and TCs during the 7894 period showed their genesis from the northwest quadrant. Regarding a TC track, TCs in the 7894 period had a strong trend of moving from the far east sea of the Philippines via the East China Sea to the mid-latitude region in East Asia while TCs in the 9512 period showed a trend of moving from the Philippines toward the southern part of China westward. Thus, TC intensity in the 7894 period, which can absorb sufficient energy from the sea as they moved a long distance over the sea, was stronger than that of 9512. Large-scale environments were analyzed to determine the cause of such difference in TC activity occurred between two periods. During the 9512 period, anomalous cold and dry anticyclones were developed strongly in the East Asia continent. As a result, Korea and Japan were affected by the anomalous northerlies thereby preventing TCs in this period from moving toward the mid-latitude region in East Asia. Instead, anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) were developed in the tropical western Pacific so that a high passage frequency from the Philippines to the south China region along the anomalous steering flows was revealed. The characteristics of the anomalous cold and dry anticyclone developed in the East Asia continent were also confirmed by the analysis of air temperature, relative humidity, and sensible heat net flux showing that most regions in East Asia had negative values.

Interdecadal changes in summer TC activity in East China Sea

The study analyzed the time series of the tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies which passed through the East China Sea between July and September from 1963 to 2012. The result of applying the statistical change-point analysis to this time series shows that a climate regime shift occurred in 1983 when the TC frequencies which pass the East China Sea area started increasing. The study then analyzed the average difference after 1983 (1984–2012) and before 1983 (1963–1983). The TC genesis frequency shows a tendency in mainly appearing in the tropical and subtropical Northwestern Pacific between 1963 and 1983 and the southern part between 1984 and 2012. The TC passage frequency shows a pattern that the TCs move from the far northeast sea of Philippines and change direction to Korea and Japan, passing through the East China Sea between 1984 and 2012. Meanwhile, the TC passage frequency shows a pattern which moves from the far southeast sea of the Philippines to southern China in the west direction in the previous period (1963–1983). These TC movement patterns coincide with the development status of the subtropical western North Pacific high (SWNPH) which averages for each period. It shows that the SWNPH in the second period stays away from the SWNPH in the second period from the northeast direction, but that the SWNPH in the first period expands to western Taiwan. This study analyzes the difference between the two periods in the 500-hPa streamline to understand the changes in such TC activities in the two groups. The anomalous anticyclonic circulations centered in the southern part of Japan are fortified in most of the subtropical Northwestern Pacific. The anomalous southerlies from the anomalous circulations are outstanding in the East China Sea area, Korea, and Japan. Therefore, the TCs generated in the tropical and subtropical Northwestern Pacific move along with the anomalous steering flow (anomalous southwesterlies) and up toward the East China Sea area, Korea, and Japan. The anomalous anticyclonic circulations are fortified in most of the subtropical Northwestern Pacific areas, but the anomalous cyclonic circulations are strengthened in the tropical Northwestern Pacific below 15° N, causing the generation of TCs mainly in the northwestern part of the tropical and subtropical Northwestern Pacific between 1963 and 1983, and in the southeastern part between 1984 and 2012.

Developing Interactive Simulator for Predicting Volcanic Ash

According to the analysis of volcanic observation data around Korean peninsula, the activities of volcano increase continuously. For example, the volcanic eruption of Mt. Sakurajima is an example, and Mt. Baekdu can be another example potentially. In these regards, developing unified system including realtime prediction and 3D visualization of volcano ash are important to prepare the volcanic disaster systematically. In this technical report, an interactive simulator embedding dispersion algorithm and 3D visualization engine is developed. This system can contribute to the realtime prediction of volcanic disaster scientifically.

Observational Study for the Thermal Environment Evaluation of Summertime over the Asphalt Pavement - Case Study in Daegu 2014 -

To investigate the thermal environment over the summertime asphalt pavements, an automatic weather observation system was installed at a parking lot paved with asphalt to observe various meteorological parameters and surface temperature from July 1 to September 30, 2014. Since the number of rainy days in summer of 2014 particularly after the mid July is more than that of average data, a ratio of daily peak surface temperature above 45 ℃ was 28% which was lower than the average. The observational data about hourly average surface temperature and various heat balance factors at days where daily peak surface temperature is above 45 ℃ are as follows: An hour that had the daily maximum temperature was around 15 pm and the value was 49℃ approximately. Net shortwave radiation was the highest at 12pm as 800 W/m 2 and much radiation of 500 W/m 2 was absorbed at the ground between 11am and 17pm. Sensible heat that was delivered from the ground to the atmosphere was evaluated as 200 W/m 2 between 10am and 19pm. underground transfer heat up to 100 W/m 2 was measured as negative from

Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the TC activity around Taiwan

This study discovered that strong positive correlations exist between the frequency of tropical cyclones (TC) during the summer around Taiwan and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the preceding March to May period. In positive AO years, during the preceding spring to summer period, anomalous cyclone and anomalous anticyclone were strongly developed at low and middle latitudes, respectively. Because of such a distribution of pressure system, in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan during the positive AO years, anomalous southeasterlies, which play the role of anomalous steering flows in transferring TCs to these regions, were strengthened. On the other hand, in southern China and the Indochina Peninsula during the positive AO years, anomalous northwesterlies, which prevent the transfer of TCs to these regions, were strengthened. Moreover, such a distribution of pressure system strengthening during the positive AO years led TCs to occur, move, and recurve more eastward in the western North Pacific in positive AO years as compared with the negative AO years. Contrarily, during the negative AO years, TCs showed the tendency to pass over the South China Sea from the Philippines and move west toward southern China and the Indochina Peninsula. Eventually, the intensity of TCs in these years was lower than that of TCs in positive AO years due to the topographic effects from a high TC passage frequency in mainland China.

Comparing the Effect of Both Thermal and Mechanical Forcing on the Error of Typhoon Track

To compare the effects of two external forcing on track of typhoon, TWRF(Typhoon WRF) based ensemble experiments are carried out in the case of Typhoon Morako which is the 8th typhoon at Northwest Pacific region in 2009. The two forcing are tropical SST and topography induced thermal and mechanical forcing, respectively. According to the result of numerical experiment for five-day forecast, the effect of mechanical forcing is about two times stronger than thermal forcing on the track error of the typhoon. More case study for other typhoon will be done as a next paper.