Yu-Mi Cha

Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks around Korea and its climatological properties

After the fuzzy clustering method (FCM) that analyzes the tracks of the tropical cyclones (TCs) struck the Korean peninsula (hereafter, K-TC) for a 60-year period (1951–2010), it is found that both frequency and intensity of K-TC have been increased in recent years. In the order of the cluster number, both K-TC track pattern and its full-track pattern tended to shift southward. That is, while the passage frequency of TC in mainland China and the Manchurian regions decreased, it instead over the sea. Due to this decrease in the topographic effect on TC before reaching Korea, TC intensity around Korea became stronger. The vertical wind shear well reflected a TC intensity around Korea, which became weaker in mid-latitudes of East Asia. On the other hand, the peak month of K-TC frequency lags in the order of the cluster number. The two clusters that most TCs pass through the Korean Peninsula showed a stronger intensity and higher frequency before the 1970s. Meanwhile, another two clusters that most TCs pass through the Straits of Korea or the western region of the Japanese Islands showed those characteristics from the 1980s onward. Consequently, the changes in TC track, recurvature, frequency, and intensity around Korea were related to the southward shift of the western North Pacific high in the order of the cluster number.

Decadal Change of Frequency in Korea Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Activity

Through a statistical change-point analysis, this study found that Korea landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) frequency has increased rapidly since 1981. This increase is due to the following phenomenon. When anomalous cyclone is developed in the East Asian continent, anomalous anticyclone is reinforced in the western Pacific, which is related to the eastward shift of western North Pacific high, and thus anomalous southerly is formed to Korea from low-latitudes. This anomalous southerly plays an important role as steering flow in moving TCs toward Korea. To examine the cause of the development of anomalous cyclone in the East Asian continent, this study analyzed the water equivalent of accumulated snow depth during the preceding spring (March to May). As a result, less snow depth is observed in most regions of the East Asian continent than before 1981. Therefore, anomalous cyclone in the East Asian continent in summer can be reinforced by the land heating from the preceding spring and then the steering flow of anomalous southerly that moves TCs toward Korea can be also developed to Korea from low-latitudes in summer.

A Study on the Determination of Korea Affecting Tropical Cyclone Center for Best Tracking

The establishment of an independent tropical cyclone (TC) position is suggested for the purpose of constructing TC best track data of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The best track process was designed with five basic stages: database, potential interval (PI), optimization, smoothing, and metadata. The PI was newly devised as a tool for expressing the uncertainty in the location of the center of the TC. This PI determined the minimum range at which the center of the TC can be adjusted and based on the analysis manual for each dataset used in the TC best tracking. Furthermore, the PI can be optimized by the differential application of the range depending on the reliability of the data. By smoothing all TC centers within the optimized PI, a best track can be produced more stably. Therefore, the analysis can be less subjective even when the determination of the TC center is difficult. For three typhoon cases that had affected Korea in 2013 (LEEPI, KONG-REY, and DANAS), best tracks were obtained based on the suggested analysis stages and verified. The results showed that the PI was relatively large in the early development and weakening stage of the TC or when the estimation of the TC center was difficult because of interactions with the land. And the best tracking was performed well with reasonable applicability.

Interdecadal variation of TC frequency in Japan

This study analyzed the climate regime shift using statistical change-point analysis on the time-series tropical cyclone (TC) frequency that affected Japan in July to September. The result showed that there was a significant change in 1995, and since then, it showed a trend of rapidly decreasing frequency. To determine the reason for this, differences between 1995 to 2012 (9512) period and 1978 to 1994 (7894) period were analyzed. First, regarding TC genesis, TCs during the 9512 period showed a characteristic of genesis from the southeast quadrant of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and TCs during the 7894 period showed their genesis from the northwest quadrant. Regarding a TC track, TCs in the 7894 period had a strong trend of moving from the far east sea of the Philippines via the East China Sea to the mid-latitude region in East Asia while TCs in the 9512 period showed a trend of moving from the Philippines toward the southern part of China westward. Thus, TC intensity in the 7894 period, which can absorb sufficient energy from the sea as they moved a long distance over the sea, was stronger than that of 9512. Large-scale environments were analyzed to determine the cause of such difference in TC activity occurred between two periods. During the 9512 period, anomalous cold and dry anticyclones were developed strongly in the East Asia continent. As a result, Korea and Japan were affected by the anomalous northerlies thereby preventing TCs in this period from moving toward the mid-latitude region in East Asia. Instead, anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) were developed in the tropical western Pacific so that a high passage frequency from the Philippines to the south China region along the anomalous steering flows was revealed. The characteristics of the anomalous cold and dry anticyclone developed in the East Asia continent were also confirmed by the analysis of air temperature, relative humidity, and sensible heat net flux showing that most regions in East Asia had negative values.

Interdecadal changes in summer TC activity in East China Sea

The study analyzed the time series of the tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies which passed through the East China Sea between July and September from 1963 to 2012. The result of applying the statistical change-point analysis to this time series shows that a climate regime shift occurred in 1983 when the TC frequencies which pass the East China Sea area started increasing. The study then analyzed the average difference after 1983 (1984–2012) and before 1983 (1963–1983). The TC genesis frequency shows a tendency in mainly appearing in the tropical and subtropical Northwestern Pacific between 1963 and 1983 and the southern part between 1984 and 2012. The TC passage frequency shows a pattern that the TCs move from the far northeast sea of Philippines and change direction to Korea and Japan, passing through the East China Sea between 1984 and 2012. Meanwhile, the TC passage frequency shows a pattern which moves from the far southeast sea of the Philippines to southern China in the west direction in the previous period (1963–1983). These TC movement patterns coincide with the development status of the subtropical western North Pacific high (SWNPH) which averages for each period. It shows that the SWNPH in the second period stays away from the SWNPH in the second period from the northeast direction, but that the SWNPH in the first period expands to western Taiwan. This study analyzes the difference between the two periods in the 500-hPa streamline to understand the changes in such TC activities in the two groups. The anomalous anticyclonic circulations centered in the southern part of Japan are fortified in most of the subtropical Northwestern Pacific. The anomalous southerlies from the anomalous circulations are outstanding in the East China Sea area, Korea, and Japan. Therefore, the TCs generated in the tropical and subtropical Northwestern Pacific move along with the anomalous steering flow (anomalous southwesterlies) and up toward the East China Sea area, Korea, and Japan. The anomalous anticyclonic circulations are fortified in most of the subtropical Northwestern Pacific areas, but the anomalous cyclonic circulations are strengthened in the tropical Northwestern Pacific below 15° N, causing the generation of TCs mainly in the northwestern part of the tropical and subtropical Northwestern Pacific between 1963 and 1983, and in the southeastern part between 1984 and 2012.

Multiple Linear Regression Model for Prediction of Summer Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

This study has developed a multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the seasonal prediction of the summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) using the four teleconnection patterns. These patterns are representative of the Siberian high Oscillation (SHO) in the East Asian continent, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific, Antarctic oscillation (AAO) near Australia, and the circulation in the equatorial central Pacific during the boreal spring (April-May). This statistical model is verified by analyzing the differences hindcasted for the high and low TCGF years. The high TCGF years are characterized by the following anomalous features: four anomalous teleconnection patterns such as anticyclonic circulation (positive SHO phase) in the East Asian continent, pressure pattern like north-high and south-low in the North Pacific, and cyclonic circulation (positive AAO phase) near Australia, and cyclonic circulation in the Nino3.4 region were strengthened during the period from boreal spring to boreal summer. Thus, anomalous trade winds in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) were weakened by anomalous cyclonic circulations that located in the subtropical western Pacific (SWP) in both hemispheres. Consequently, this spatial distribution of anomalous pressure pattern suppressed convection in the TWP, strengthened convection in the SWP instead.

Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the TC activity around Taiwan

This study discovered that strong positive correlations exist between the frequency of tropical cyclones (TC) during the summer around Taiwan and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the preceding March to May period. In positive AO years, during the preceding spring to summer period, anomalous cyclone and anomalous anticyclone were strongly developed at low and middle latitudes, respectively. Because of such a distribution of pressure system, in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan during the positive AO years, anomalous southeasterlies, which play the role of anomalous steering flows in transferring TCs to these regions, were strengthened. On the other hand, in southern China and the Indochina Peninsula during the positive AO years, anomalous northwesterlies, which prevent the transfer of TCs to these regions, were strengthened. Moreover, such a distribution of pressure system strengthening during the positive AO years led TCs to occur, move, and recurve more eastward in the western North Pacific in positive AO years as compared with the negative AO years. Contrarily, during the negative AO years, TCs showed the tendency to pass over the South China Sea from the Philippines and move west toward southern China and the Indochina Peninsula. Eventually, the intensity of TCs in these years was lower than that of TCs in positive AO years due to the topographic effects from a high TC passage frequency in mainland China.

An Analysis of Model Bias Tendency in Forecast for the Interaction between Mid-latitude Trough and Movement Speed of Typhoon Sanba

Typhoon Sanba was selected for describing the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (GDAPS) model bias tendency in forecast for the interaction between mid-latitude trough and movement speed of typhoon. We used the KMA GDAPS analyses and forecasts initiated 00 UTC 15 September 2012 from the historical typhoon record using Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System (TAPS) and Combined Meteorological Information System-3 (COMIS-3). Sea level pressure fields illustrated a development of the low level mid-latitude cyclogenesis in relation to Jet Maximum at 500 hPa. The study found that after Sanba entered the mid-latitude domain, its movement speed was forecast to be accelerated. Typically, Snaba interacted with mid-latitude westerlies at the front of mid-latitude trough. This event occurred when the Sanba was nearing recurvature at 00 and 06 UTC 17 September. The KMA GDAPS sea level pressure forecasts provided the low level mid-latitude cyclone that was weaker than what it actually analyzed in field. As a result, the mid-latitude circulations affecting on Sanba`s movement speed was slower than what the KMA GDAPS actually analyzed in field. It was found that these circulations occurred due to the weak mid-tropospheric jet maximum at the 500 hPa. In conclusion, the KMA GDAPS forecast tends to slow a bias of slow movement speed when Sanba interacted with the mid-latitude trough.