Hakim Ben Hammouda

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. There is, however, increasing discomfort with the use of these models, especially in Africa. This article demonstrates that the results of several such studies of the impact of trade reforms in Africa differ drastically in terms of both magnitude and direction, failing to take account of key features of African economies. It also outlines potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggests pitfalls to be avoided. Copyright (c) The Authors 2008. Journal compilation (c) 2008 Overseas Development Institute..

The Impact of Industrial Market Access Negotiations on African Economies

This paper proposes an extensive data simulation exercise on the likely impact of non-agricultural market access liberalization. The paper analyses real options for tariff cut reduction, special and differential treatment and the treatment of unbound tariffs. This paper also gives indications concerning the likely economic impact of this trade round of industrial market access negotiations on African economies. It shows that an ambitious tariff cut reduction formula would provide greater access to developed country markets for African producers. However, this kind of formula has a major drawback for African countries in the sense that it could accelerate the de-industrialization of African countries and limit incentives to diversify their economies.