Nassim Oulmane

North African countries (NACs) production and export structure: Towards diversification and export sophistication strategy

ABSTRACT The North African countries’ (NACs) production and export structure suffers from double constraints: insufficient diversification and weak sophistication. This study assesses the impact of diversification/sophistication variables on growth in the NACs and verifies that the current export structure is indeed a constraint to economic development. We estimate a growth model as a Barros regression (conditional-convergence model) using panel data. The factors that determine export diversification and sophistication suggest which levers and actions would firstly allow NACs to diversify their exports to higher added-value products and secondly take the existing products to a higher level of sophistication. Our recommendations highlight the role of various policies and stakeholders.

The Impact of Industrial Market Access Negotiations on African Economies

This paper proposes an extensive data simulation exercise on the likely impact of non-agricultural market access liberalization. The paper analyses real options for tariff cut reduction, special and differential treatment and the treatment of unbound tariffs. This paper also gives indications concerning the likely economic impact of this trade round of industrial market access negotiations on African economies. It shows that an ambitious tariff cut reduction formula would provide greater access to developed country markets for African producers. However, this kind of formula has a major drawback for African countries in the sense that it could accelerate the de-industrialization of African countries and limit incentives to diversify their economies.