Hamid Faruqee

Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective

This paper examines the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate from a stock-flow perspective. The empirical analysis estimates a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, net foreign assets, and other factors affecting trade flows. Using postwar data for the United States and Japan, cointegration analysis supports the finding that the structural factors underlying each countrys net trade and net foreign asset positions determine the long-run path for the real value of the dollar and the yen. The empirical analysis also provides estimates for the underlying stochastic trend in each real exchange rate series.

The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries

To understand the diverse impact of the crisis across emerging market countries, we explore the role of two shocks—the collapse in trade and the sharp decline in financial flows—in the transmission of the crisis from the advanced economies. We first develop a simple open economy model, which allows for imperfect capital mobility and potentially contractionary effects of currency depreciation due to foreign debt exposure. We then look at the cross-country evidence. The data suggest a strong role for both trade and financial shocks. Perhaps surprisingly, the data give little econometric support for a central role of either reserves or exchange rate regimes. We end by presenting case studies for Latvia, Russia, and Chile.

Multimod Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model

This study describes the Mark III version of MULTIMOD, the IMFs multi region macroeconomic model. Mark III version of MULTIMOD differs from its predecessor in several important respects. New features include a core steady-state analogue model, a new model of teh inflation-unemployment nexus, and extended non-Ricardian specification of consumption-saving behavior, and improved specifications and estimates of investment behavior and international trade equations. In addition, the introduction of a new solution algorithm has greatly increased the robustness, speed of convergence, and accuracy of the simulations.

What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach

This paper uses cross-section and panel data to examine the determinants of the current account. The empirics find a significant impact of the stage of development and demographic factors in the cross section. Estimating partial-adjustment and error-correction models using panel data, the paper finds a short- and long-run impact of fiscal policy on the current account in the time series. The real exchange rate, the business cycle and the terms of trade are also shown to have short-run effects on the current account, while the stage of development and demographics have longer-run effects.

Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments

This chapter reports on Coordinating Group on Exchange Rate Issues’ (CGER) works and provides perspectives on alternative frameworks for assessing exchange rates and the rationale for CGERs general approach. The primary motivation for the work of the CGER is to identify cases where exchange rates appear to be substantially out of line with medium-run macroeconomic fundamentals. It is recognized that such situations can have different interpretations, depending on the cyclical positions of economies and other circumstances. The assessments of exchange rates among industrial country currencies rely primarily on an application of a macroeconomic balance framework. This framework focuses on the extent to which the current account positions associated with prevailing exchange rates are consistent with medium-run fundamentals. Substantial discrepancies between exchange rates and their medium-run equilibrium levels, when they emerge, raise two different, however, related issues for the IMF to address in its exercise of bilateral and multilateral Surveillance.

GEM; A New International Macroeconomic Model

Over the past two years, the IMF staff has been developing a new multicountry macroeconomic model called the Global Economy Model (GEM). This paper explains why such a model is needed, how GEM differs from its predecessor model, and how the new features of the model can improve the IMF’s policy analysis. The paper is aimed at a general audience and avoids technical detail. It outlines the motivation, structure, strengths, and limitations of the model; examines three simulation exercises that have been completed; and discusses the future path of GEM.

The Determinants of International Portfolio Holdings and Home Bias

Despite the liberalization of foreign portfolio investment around the globe since the early 1980s, the home-bias phenomenon is still found to exist. Using a relatively new IMF survey dataset of cross-border equity holdings, this paper tests new structural equations from a consumption-based asset-pricing model on international portfolio holdings. Using of stock data allows us to provide new and clear-cut evidence on the determinants of international portfolio holdings. The empirical results show that an augmented gravity model performs remarkably well. The results indicate that market size, transaction cost, and information asymmetry are major determinants of cross-border portfolio choice. These findings shed light on alternative theories of international portfolio holdings, especially on the transaction and information cost-based explanations of home bias.

Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability

The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The papers objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japans government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare.

Saving Trends in Southeast Asia: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts have been an important factor underlying regional saving trends with a similar long-run impact in each country, except for Indonesia where the effects of demographics have been even more pronounced.

Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income and Liquidity Constraints: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence

Evans (1991) has demonstrated that Blanchards (1985) finite-horizon model obeys approximate Ricardian equivalence. This paper shows that this result is determined largely by an unrealistic assumption that labor income grows monotonically over the consumers entire lifetime. With more realistic lifetime earnings profiles, the effects of government debt on the real interest rate and the capital stock are considerably larger. In particular, leaving aside the effects of distortionary capital taxation, the extended model with liquidity constraints predicts that real interest rates would decline by about 150-200 basis points if government debt were eliminated completely in all countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).