Aasim M. Husain

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

Centripetal Forces in China's Economic Take-off

This paper uses provincial time series data from the Peoples Republic of China to empirically investigate two propositions relating to economic development: (i) that economic takeoff – or an acceleration in economic growth – is associated with inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), possibly through technological transfer; and (ii) that takeoff is accompanied, at least in the short term, by widening income inequality. The results indicate that FDI flows have increased the rate of convergence in per capita incomes across Chinas provinces. However, the pattern of FDI, which has gone mainly to the relatively wealthy provinces, has caused different provinces to converge toward different steady states.

Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries

This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

Saving Trends in Southeast Asia: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts have been an important factor underlying regional saving trends with a similar long-run impact in each country, except for Indonesia where the effects of demographics have been even more pronounced.

Does Sequencing of Privatization Matter in Reforming Planned Economies

Although key to the reform process in Central and Eastern Europe, large-scale privatization cannot be undertaken all at once. This paper analyzes the allocative efficiency implications of alternate sequences of privatization in a reforming planned economy with two sectors--an input-producing upstream sector and a final goods-producing downstream sector. The model focuses on the link, through an intermediate inputs market, between the two sectors. The impacts of exogenous shocks are highlighted to show how the inflexibility of public firms in responding to shocks constrains the production response of private firms operating in perfectly and imperfectly competitive markets.

Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment

This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodity price forecasts--those based on judgment, those relying exclusively on historical price data, and those incorporating prices implied by commodity futures. For most of the 15 commodities in the sample, spot and futures prices appear to be nonstationary and to form a cointegrating relation. Spot prices tend to move toward futures prices over the long run, and error-correction models exploiting this feature produce more accurate forecasts. The analysis indicates that on the basis of statistical- and directional-accuracy measures, futures-based models yield better forecasts than historical-data-based models or judgment, especially at longer horizons.

Debt relief schemes and welfare

Abstract This paper shows that concerted debt reduction may be welfare-improving even when the investment disincentive effect of a debt overhang is not large enough to place the debtor country on the wrong side of the debt Laffer curve. Whether the appropriate relief scheme involves debt reduction or new money, however, depends on whether investment disincentives or liquidity constraints dominate. It is shown that, except under very special circumstances, mixed policy packages involving both debt and liquidity relief may not yield the desired results. (JEL F34).

Sovereign Debt Relief Schemes and Welfare

This paper shows that concerted debt reduction may be welfare-improving even when the investment disincentive effect of a debt overhang is not large enough to place the debtor country on the wrong side of the debt Laffer curve. Whether the appropriate relief scheme involves debt reduction or new money, however, depends on whether investment disincentives or liquidity constraints dominate. It is shown that, except under very special circumstances, mixed policy packages involving both debt and liquidity relief may not yield the desired results.

Centripetal forces in China's Economic Take-Off

This paper uses provincial time series data from China to empirically investigate two propositions relating to economic development: (i) that economic takeoff is associated with technological transfer through foreign direct investment (FDI); and (ii) that takeoff is accompanied, at least in the short term, by widening income inequality. The results indicate that FDI flows have increased the rate of convergence in per capita incomes across Chinas provinces. However, the pattern of FDI, which has gone mainly to the relatively wealthy provinces, has caused different provinces to converge to different steady states.

Distortionary Taxation and the Debt Laffer Curve

This paper highlights the importance of the role of the domestic tax system in determining the economic consequences of an external debt overhang. A simple taxation scheme is specified and it is shown that a country can be on the “wrong side” of its debt Laffer curve only if it is on the wrong side of its tax Laffer curve. The analysis indicates that fairly strong, and probably unrealistic, assumptions about the domestic tax system are needed to argue that the investment disincentives associated with the debt overhang are large enough to place a country on the wrong side of its debt Laffer curve.