Hana Tomaskova

Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model

Introduction Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. Aim The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. Methods For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Results Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. Conclusion System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

Optimal consistent approximation of a preference matrix in decision making

A new approach to the inconsistency problem of preference matrices is described. The optimal consistent approximation (OCA) is computed as a consistent matrix with the minimal distance from the given (not necessarily consistent) preference matrix A. The approximation is found by a linear optimisation method under the assumption that A is antisymmetric. Moreover, a modified method (MOCA) is suggested for treating incomplete preference matrices. MOCA can also be used for identifying so-called outliers, i.e., the entries badly influencing the distance of the nearest consistent approximation. Outliers are usually caused by errors in data processing. The methods are illustrated by examples.

Towards Device Interoperability in an Heterogeneous Internet of Things Environment.

Internet of Things can be viewed as a global network of devices with capabilities of autonomous communication. This is one step ahead of current state, where automatic mutual service communication without human interference is limited. This paper evaluates possibilities of extending nowadays commonly used protocols to achieve higher level of autonomous device communication. It is presumed that fully automatic machine to machine communication and understanding is not yet technologically possible. Several ways of extending current communication protocols by semantic metadata are described and their impact on device communication evaluated.

Combination of Collision Detection and Visibility Algorithms in Simulation of the Effective Placement of Anti-air Elements

The computer simulation of the effective placement of air defense elements is presented in this paper. The proposed algorithm used for plane detection is based on a combination of collision detection algorithms and visibility algorithms. The method is designed to be computationally effective in order to enable the smooth running of the simulation. The optimal placement of selected air defense elements is computed for any given place on Earth with marked defended structure and selected air-raid routes. The map height profile is loaded from Google Maps API during simulation initialization. Range and visible area for given air-defense elements are computed based on the height profile. Different placements of anti-air elements are tested and the success rate of air raid scenarios gives the optimal locations for the placement of such elements.

Preference comparison for plagiarism detection systems

This article studies the extent and practicality of plagiarism detection systems using multiple classifications of detection engines, further described within the article. An in-depth analysis of 8 individual articles from different fields of work was carried out allowing comparisons both between detection systems and different writing styles/formats. The first analysis used unmodified versions of the 8 selected papers as a control and base for the performance of the detection engines, before a second analysis was conducted. This analysis used modified versions of the selected papers by formatting the plagiarized sentences detected in the first test. This formatting involved simple shuffling and manipulation of the text to determine the effectiveness and extent of each detection engine.

The Use of Simulation Modelling in the Analysis of the Economic Aspects of Diseases in Old Age

In the coming decades, the size and age-structure of Europe’s population will undergo dramatic changes due to low fertility rates and continuous increases in life expectancy. These changes also bring significant impacts on the economies of these countries. The impacts are a shortage of workers, chronic and degenerative diseases, increased government spending on health care and pensions. The more precise idea of the economic impacts countries have, the better they can over time develop strategies to deal with the situation. The aim of this paper is to present a dynamic simulation modelling as a tool to illustrate the economic aspects of population aging. The purpose of the simulation model is to simulate the behavior of the real system. The simulation model mimics when they run the substantial sites of the modelled system. The key to creating a simulation model is to understand the relationships and constraints of the modelled object. In the context of the research the simulation model is used for diseases in old age, particularly dementia. A tool for the simulation model is a software called STELLA, which meets the requirements for this area. The created and proposed model shows a number of benefits that are important for the expression of the economic aspects of diseases in the old age. These benefits are not included in standard statistical methods for predicting future development and other economic analyses used for this purpose.

Computer Support in Building-up a Consistent Preference Matrix

A method of a computer support for an expert who is creating a matrix of pairwise preferences in a decision making problem is described. The final preference matrix should be antisymmetric and consistent. While it is easy to control the antisymmetricity of the entries, the consistency of the inserted values, on the other hand, is far from obvious. The suggested computer support is based on the idea that the consistent hull of the previously inserted entries is maintained in the computer, and in every step the human expert gets the information whether the intended preference value can be chosen independently of the previous inputs. If the opposite case, then computer recommends the unique consistent value. Still, the expert can decide differently according to his/her own opinion. Then the optimal consistent approximation of all previous entries including the last input is computed and maintained for further steps. The computer support uses the optimal approximation algorithm due to the authors. The new method is illustrated by examples.

A System to Evaluate an Air-Strike Threat Level Using Fuzzy Methods

This article presents a computer expert system that evaluates an air-strike threat. The presented system uses fuzzy methods and it has been created based on the expert knowledge of a given problematic. Our system is able to calculate the threat level of a monitored aircraft for a protected object in real time. It evaluates the inter-relationships between air attack elements and protected objects that are attacked or where it can be assumed that they will be attacked. The results of this research have been checked and verified by experts in military tactics.

Dynamic Modeling of the Czech Republic Population with a Focus on Alzheimer’s Disease Patients

This article focuses on the Czech population modeling with the main aim to predict the Alzheimer’s disease patients numbers. We choose a system dynamics as a modeling tool for this phenomenon. The article describes Alzheimer’s disease and its causes, the expected development of the population by 2100, the AD patient’s development, and last but not least the theory of system thinking. The outputs are based on the statistical data analysis and created by a dynamic model, which can simulate the development of the Czech Republic population and the AD patients.

Numeric, Agent-based or System Dynamics Model? Which Modeling Approach is the Best for Vast Population Simulation?

BACKGROUND Alzheimers disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25% of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. METHODS Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimers disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. RESULTS The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. CONCLUSION In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population.