Hanna Augustyniak

To Rent or to Buy - Analysis of Housing Tenure Choice Determined by Housing Policy

The article discusses the relatively large share of owner-occupied housing in the housing stock in selected European countries with relatively low per capita income and describes the underlying causes of this phenomenon. We identify the economic implications of the growing number of owner-occupied housing and poorly developed rental market. The paper analyses home purchase or rental decisions and explains the correlations between housing availability, consumption and households’ savings, as well as housing policy. The way in which the development of the rental market can affect the situation in the property market is presented on the basis of a simple model.

Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market – interactions between the primary and the secondary market and multiplier effects

While analysing the housing market, we focus on the short-term modelling of the housing units market instead of analysing the long-term housing space market. In this context, even a minor change in factors affecting the real estate market leads, due to the multiplier effect, to strong shocks on the demand side, and, consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the price elasticity of supply and demand, may disappear or explode. This articles presents the modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market. We focus on price changes and the number of housing units in the primary and secondary market. We find that in order to smooth the housing cycle, the housing demand needs to be smoothed. This can be achieved with the use of fiscal policy, prudential regulations and housing policy.

Property valuation for mortgage purposes in Poland

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to describe the property valuation methods that are applied in Poland. It shows that they base on international standards and are a reliable source of information for international investors and banks. Design/methodology/approach The valuation methods are described and critically assessed, potential problems are pointed out. The analysis of lending risk is analysed on data about non-performing loans (NPL). Findings Polish valuation methods are in line with international methods, but there are some risks, like small number of transactions, subjective behaviour of valuers. The low NPL ratios indicate that the valuation works correctly. Practical implications The Polish valuation methods are trustworthy, non-performing mortgage ratios are low, however, banks and investors should ask whether there is a local zoning plan. Moreover, they should look critically at the comparables that were used during the valuation process, if in their opinion the valuation is overly low or high. Originality/value This paper focusses on valuation from a financial stability perspective. It uses Polish literature and data on NPLs to give an insight on valuation of property and mortgage risk in Poland. Besides the review of the methods it points out the problems related to valuation uncertainty, such as the risk of subjective behaviour of valuers and the low number of transactions in some regions, which are used for valuations.

Recent Trends in the Real Estate Market and its Analysis, 2013, Volume 1

The Narodowy Bank Polski organized during November 14-15, 2013 an international workshop to discuss current issues in the field of real estate analysis from the central bank’s point of view. The development of residential real estate prices as well as commercial real estate prices and real estate financing were also covered during the workshop. The workshop was aimed at researchers who work in academia, private firms and central banks. The conference focused on topics: Real estate finance, fiscal and monetary policy and the macroeconomic and financial stability – analysis and the monitoring of real estate indicators; Modeling of real estate cycles (demand and supply); The development of property prices, its modeling and analysis.