Hanna Chang

Estimating the Changes in Forest Carbon Dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis Forests in South Korea under the RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario

Forests contain a huge amount of carbon (C) and climate change could affect forest C dynamics. This study was conducted to predict the C dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis forests, which are the most dominant needleleaf and broadleaf forests in Korea, using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon (KFSC) model under the two climate change scenarios (2012−2100; Constant Temperature (CT) scenario and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario). To construct simulation unit, the forest land areas for those two species in the 5th National Forest Inventory (NFI) data were sorted by administrative district and stand age class. The C pools were initialized at 2012, and any disturbance was not considered during the simulation period. Although the forest C stocks of two species generally increased over time, the forest C stocks under the RCP 8.5 scenario were less than those stocks under the CT scenario. The C stocks of P. densiflora forests increased from 260.4 Tg C in 2012 to 395.3 (CT scenario) or 384.1 Tg C (RCP 8.5 scenario) in 2100. For Q. variabilis forests, the C stocks increased from 124.4 Tg C in 2012 to 219.5 (CT scenario) or 204.7 (RCP 8.5 scenario) Tg C in 2100. Compared to 5th NFI data, the initial value of C stocks in dead organic matter C pools seemed valid. Accordingly, the annual C sequestration rates of the two species over the simulation period under the RCP 8.5 scenario (65.8 and 164.2 g C m yr for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis) were lower than those values under the CT scenario (71.1 and 193.5 g C m yr for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis). We concluded that the C sequestration potential of P. densiflora and Q. variabilis forests could be decreased by climate change. Although there were uncertainties from parameters and model structure, this study could contribute to elucidating the C dynamics of South Korean forests in future.