Hannah Pieters

Effect of democratic reforms on child mortality: a synthetic control analysis

BACKGROUND The effects of political regimes on health are unclear because empirical evidence is neither strong nor robust. Traditional econometric tools do not allow the direction of causality to be established clearly. We used a new method to investigate whether political transition into democracy affected child mortality. METHODS We used a synthetic control method to assess the effects of democratisation on child mortality as a proxy of health in countries that underwent transition from autocracy to democracy that lasted for at least 10 years between 1960 and 2010. Democracy was indicated by a score greater than 0 in the Polity2 index. We constructed synthetic controls (counterfactuals) based on weighted averages for factors such as child mortality, economic development, openess to trade, conflict, rural population, and female education from a pool of countries that remained autocracies during the study period. RESULTS Of 60 countries that underwent democratic transition in the study period, 33 met our inclusion criteria. We were able to construct good counterfactuals for 24 of these. On average, democratisation reduced child mortality, and the effect increased over time. Significant reductions in child mortality were seen in nine (38%) countries, with the average reduction 10 years after democratisation being 13%. In the other 15 countries the effects were not significant. At the country level yhe effects were heterogeneous, but the differences did not correlate with geographic, economic, or political indicators. The effect of democratisation, however, was stronger in countries with above average child mortality before transition than in countries with below average child mortality. INTERPRETATION Our results are consistent with the interpretation that democratic reforms have the greatest effects when child mortality is a direct concern for a large part of the population. Future research could focus on identifying the precise mechanism through which the effects emerge. FUNDING European Union 7th Framework Programme and KU Leuven Methusalem Fund.

Trading-Off Volatility and Distortions? Food Policy During Price Spikes

This paper analyses the trade-off between price distortions and reduced volatility when governments intervened in agricultural and food markets during the recent food price spikes. We develop a model to derive how much distortions a government would introduce when it cares about price stability in a situation with limited policy options. We show that there is a trade-off and identify the optimal combination of distortions and stability for given international price shocks and interest groups preferences for stability. We compare these theoretical findings with empirical indicators on actual government interventions in staple food markets. We find that several countries have been able to reduce (short run) price volatility in the domestic markets while at the same time allowing structural (medium and long term) price changes to pass through to producers and consumers. However, this is not the general case. For many countries, even when explicitly taking into account the trade-off (and the benefits of reducing volatility) government policies appear far removed from the optimal trade-off and there appears to be much room for policy improvement.

Food Security Policy at the Extreme of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Abstract Purpose This chapter considers food security in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from a global perspective within a water-energy-food nexus framework. Methodology/approach A general water-energy-food nexus framework is used to analyze the interplay of water scarcity, relative energy abundance, and food production and consumption in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We identify crucial considerations from the perspective of high food import dependency based on sourcing food to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through food imports and foreign investments. Findings The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has introduced major reforms to reduce the use of highly subsidized but very scarce water for domestic feed and food production. However, the country is now more vulnerable to increasing food demand in relation to high, volatile world market prices, particularly for cereals. Despite major reforms in agricultural production, the KSA government faces serious challenges. Practical implications Developing strategies to meet the KSA food security objectives is essential. The KSA government should push reform even further and revise its policy regarding forage crops to save scarce water resources. Furthermore, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would benefit from a more extensive food security strategy in which food stocks and subsidies are complemented by in-kind and cash transfers.