Nicolas Gerber

Food and Nutrition Security Indicators: A Review

In this paper, we review existing food and nutrition security indicators, discuss some of their advantages and disadvantages, and finally classify them and describe their relationships and overlaps. In order to achieve this, the paper makes reference to the existing definitions of food and nutrition security (FNS), in particular as they have been agreed upon and implemented in the FoodSecure project (www.foodsecure.eu). The main existing conceptual frameworks of FNS predating the present paper are also used as guidelines and briefly discussed. Finally, we make recommendations in terms of the most appropriate FNS indicators to quantify the impacts of various shocks and interventions on food and nutrition security outcomes.

The Economics of Land Degradation

Healthy soils are essential for sustaining economies and human livelihoods. In spite of this, the key ecosystem services provided by soils have usually been taken for granted and their true value – beyond market value – is being underrated. This pattern of undervaluation of soils is about to change in view of rapidly raising land prices, which is the result of increased shortage of land and raising output prices that drive implicit prices of land (with access to water) upward. Moreover, the value of soil related ecosystems services is being better understood and increasingly valued. It is estimated that about a quarter of global land area is degraded, affecting about 1.5 billion people in all agro-ecologies around the world. Land degradation has its highest toll on the livelihoods and well-being of the poorest households in the rural areas of developing countries. Vicious circles of poverty and land degradation, as well as transmission effects from rural poverty and food insecurity to national economies, critically hamper their development process. Despite the need for preventing and reversing land degradation, the problem has yet to be appropriately addressed. Policy action for sustainable land use is lacking, and a policy framework for action is missing. Key objectives of this Issue Paper and of a proposed related global assessment of the Economics of Land Degradation (ELD) are: first, to raise awareness about the need for and role of an assessment of the economic, social and environmental costs of land degradation; and second, to propose and illustrate a scientific framework to conduct such an assessment, based on the costs of action versus inaction against land degradation. Preliminary findings suggest that the costs of inaction are much higher than the costs of action.

Land Degradation, Poverty and Marginality

This chapter emphasizes the complexity and plurality of the types and magnitudes of causal relationships between poverty and environmental degradation, based on a review of the literature. The authors use case studies focused on the issue of land degradation to illustrate these relationships. Land degradation (LD) is influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors, including socioeconomic conditions. LD is of importance to people because it decreases the provision of terrestrial ecosystem services and the benefits they provide for human well-being. A key question is whether lower levels of well-being lead to more or less destructive resource use and management strategies. The authors call for a systematic and science-based assessment of LD worldwide as a necessary first step toward the inclusion of LD in global measures of well-being.

The Impacts of Biofuel Production on Food Prices: A Review

The various calculations of the impacts of biofuel production on the mid-term projections of food and agricultural commodity prices are difficult to reconcile. This is largely due to the intricate set of assumptions, the differences in the baseline scenario and in the projection horizon they are built upon. For similar reasons, studies evaluating the impact of biofuel production on food and commodity prices to date do not provide a clear consensus. Rather than discussing the merits of the different assumptions and methodologies, this paper focuses on the global trends that can be extracted from the different sources. Agreed upon by all sources is the fact that between 2005 and 2007 many agricultural commodity prices increased sharply, especially nominal prices. The impact of commodity prices on final food prices affecting household food expenditures is less clear. Nonetheless, many food price indices (national CPIs, WB food price index and FAO food price index) have also risen over the same period. It is a fact that the increasing demand for feedstocks from the biofuel sector is one among several factors impacting on agricultural commodity prices. Other factors cited include poor harvests, the structural change in food demand in certain countries, population growth, high oil prices, or the devaluation of the US dollar. To calculate the longer term projected commodity prices, these factors are integrated in the simulations, which are then subjected to different biofuel production scenarios. These scenarios largely determine the extent of the biofuels’ impact on food and commodity prices. Despite considerable differences in projection results, methodologies and assumptions, some common trends can be observed. The latest EU and US biofuel programs and legislations are expected to have the largest impact on vegetable oils over the mid term, increasing world real prices by more than 30% between 2011 and 2016. The impacts on prices are generally projected as lesser (+3 to 15%) for commodities such as wheat, corn and soybean, whilst the price of oilseed meals (an important part of fodder markets and a by-product of vegetable oil production) is predicted to decline (-11 to -17%) due to the increase in vegetable oil production. A (hypothetical) freezing of biofuel production at the 2007 levels predicts a decline in cassava, oils, sugar and wheat prices by less than 10% between 1997 and 2020. The price decreases would reach 10 to 20% had biofuel production completely stopped in 2007. The magnitude of the impacts is more contrasted when looking at real regional prices, but across all given regions biofuel mandates and targets are projected to impact oilseed prices most strongly (+25 to +72%), followed by grain prices (+5 to +21%).

The Economics of Land and Soil Degradation-Toward an Assessment of the Costs of Inaction

Recarbonization of the biosphere is a desirable objective in view of climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission problems. Yet it is confronted with at least two challenges. First, there are increased trade-offs between biomass uses in the emerging bio-economy (e.g., food-fuel competition). This impacts the role of soils for carbon (C) sequestration. These trade-offs are to be reconciled by accelerated knowledge and innovation intensive approaches in a “Green Growth” strategy. Secondly, the degradation of the earth’s lands and soils is increasingly recognized as a global problem as extent and impacts are increasingly affecting and affected by environmental and social vulnerability as well as climate change. Both of these challenges cannot be met without a comprehensive assessment of the land and soil degradation issue. A review of the state of the art on the quantification and mapping of degradation, its effects and driving forces, and its economic valuation is provided here. Further, a framework for a global assessment of costs of Action versus Inaction against degradation is proposed.

Benefits of Action and Costs of Inaction: Drought Mitigation and Preparedness—A Literature Review*

About the authors Nicolas Gerber and Alisher Mirzabaev are economists and senior researchers at the Center for Development Research, University of Bonn, Germany. Both authors are consultants to the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP).

Aspirations and food security in rural Ethiopia

Despite some improvements in recent years, poverty and food insecurity remain widespread and the main challenges in Ethiopia. Much of the empirical literature focuses on identifying the resource-related constraints for farmers to achieve food security and move out of poverty, with little attention paid to ‘internal’ or psychological factors such as aspirations. Using individual and household data collected in rural Ethiopia, we examined if aspirations were strongly associated with well-being outcomes, in our case food security, as posited in the theoretical framework of aspirations failure. We found that aspirations of the household head were positively and strongly associated with various triangulating measures of household food security including per-capita calorie consumption, the food consumption score (FCS), the household dietary diversity score (HDDS), and negatively associated with the household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS). In contrast, results suggest that the aspirations of the spouse of the household head are negatively associated with per-capita calorie consumption and FCS. We discuss the channels through which aspirations may affect food security and the avenues for future research.

The effect of aspirations on agricultural innovations in rural Ethiopia

This paper identifies the effect of aspirations on the adoption of agricultural innovations in the context of rural Ethiopia. While most studies on agricultural innovations have focused on identifying observable and resource-related deprivations or ‘external’ constraints, a related stream of literature suggests that ‘internal’ constraints, such as the lack of aspirations, could reinforce external constraints and lead to self-sustaining poverty traps. Since both aspirations and the adoption of innovations are forward-looking, they are likely to be intimately linked. Aspirations are motivators that can enhance innovations or their adoption not only in their own right but also through their determinants, including self-efficacy, locus of control and other internal traits that may be unobserved. This implies that aspirations may affect innovations through multiple channels and hence may be endogenous. On the other hand, aspirations are also affected by a person’s level of achievement, implying that aspirations and innovations are simultaneously determined. To identify the effect of aspirations on the adoption of agricultural innovations, we conducted both plot-level and household-level analysis using purposely collected data from households in rural Ethiopia. Using econometric strategies that account for the endogenous nature of aspirations, we found that a narrow or a very wide gap between aspirations and achievement in a farming household is strongly associated with low levels of innovativeness and low adoption rate of innovation products such as chemical fertilizers.

Rural Shadow Wages and Youth Agricultural Labor Supply in Ethiopia: Evidence from Farm Panel Data

The majority of the youth in Ethiopia live in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of livelihood. Using gender- and age-specific values of agricultural labor return (shadow wages), we systematically analyse trends, patterns and prospects of youth’s labor supply in agriculture across space (farm locations). We also analyse whether the household male and female youth members’ agricultural labor supply is responsive to economic incentives. We investigate these using shadow wages estimation techniques applied to farm-household panel data collected during the 2010/11 and 2014/15 agricultural seasons. The results indicate that trends and patterns of the youth’s involvement in agriculture vary across gender and farm work locations, and so do their labor returns. Yet the on-farm participation for youth members is declining across time irrespective of gender, whilst their participation in off-farm activities is increasing. The findings also suggest that changes in agricultural shadow wages matter for the youth’s involvement in the sector, but their impact differs for male and female youth. The results are consistent after controlling for individual heterogeneity, sample selection and instrumenting for possible endogeneity. In addition, we find that youth’s intentions and actual engagement in agricultural production vary greatly. This suggests that the frequent narrative of youth disengaging from agriculture may be a result of methodological flaws or data limitations. Taking into account the intensity of the youth’s involvement in family farm, own farm and off-farm work, the results challenge the presumption that youth are abandoning agriculture, at least in agricultural potential areas of Ethiopia. Instead the youth’s involvement makes an important economic contribution to the operation of the family farm. Therefore, it is necessary to invest in agricultural development to enhance productivity and employment opportunities; and structural transformation that addresses the imperfections and rigidities in labor and other input markets to make agriculture more attractive to youth.

Can a Specially Designed Information Intervention Around the Wash-Agriculture Linkages Make Any Difference? Experimental Evidence of Behavioral Changes and Health Impacts

This paper attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of the specially designed packages of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions with ‘student brigades’ (student teams tasked with maintaining hygiene in school) on household WASH behavior and practices in both a household and farm setting. In addition, household members’ health and developmental productivity outcomes were also examined. A randomized control trial (RCT) involving student brigades (SBs) was carried out in six sub-districts (hotspots) characterized by comparatively poor WASH indicators. The specially designed WASH-agriculture treatment consisted of three interventions: (1) informing the households about the prior water testing results; (2) delivering hygiene messages with the help of posters; (3) equipping SB members with water quality test kits and asking them to test the water quality at different places and report their findings to their household. Employing the difference-in-difference (DID) multivariate regression technique, the analysis revealed that the BRAC WASH treatment performed well in terms of effecting behavioral changes and improving hygiene practices. In addition, the results suggested that informing households of their drinking water quality and conveying WASH-agriculture hygiene messages to them could have a significant incremental impact over the existing BRAC WASH treatment in changing household hygiene behavior and practices at home and on farms. This research provides evidence that students can act as agents of change in improving water quality, sanitation and health in a rural setting.