Hannelore Löwel

C-Reactive Protein, a Sensitive Marker of Inflammation, Predicts Future Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Initially Healthy Middle-Aged Men Results From the MONICA (Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease) Augsburg Cohort Study, 1984 to 1992

BACKGROUND Inflammatory reactions in coronary plaques play an important role in the pathogenesis of acute atherothrombotic events; inflammation elsewhere is also associated with both atherogenesis generally and its thrombotic complications. Recent studies indicate that systemic markers of inflammation can identify subjects at high risk of coronary events. METHODS AND RESULTS We used a sensitive immunoradiometric assay to examine the association of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) with the incidence of first major coronary heart disease (CHD) event in 936 men 45 to 64 years of age. The subjects, who were sampled at random from the general population, participated in the first MONICA Augsburg survey (1984 to 1985) and were followed for 8 years. There was a positive and statistically significant unadjusted relationship, which was linear on the log-hazards scale, between CRP values and the incidence of CHD events (n=53). The hazard rate ratio (HRR) of CHD events associated with a 1-SD increase in log-CRP level was 1.67 (95% CI, 1.29 to 2. 17). After adjustment for age, the HRR was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.23 to 2. 08). Adjusting further for smoking behavior, the only variable selected from a variety of potential confounders by a forward stepping process with a 5% change in the relative risk of CRP as the selection criterion, yielded an HRR of 1.50 (95% CI, 1.14 to 1.97). CONCLUSIONS These results confirm the prognostic relevance of CRP, a sensitive systemic marker of inflammation, to the risk of CHD in a large, randomly selected cohort of initially healthy middle-aged men. They suggest that low-grade inflammation is involved in pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, especially its thrombo-occlusive complications.

Physical Exertion as a Trigger of Acute Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND It is controversial whether the onset of myocardial infarction occurs randomly or is precipitated by identifiable stimuli. Previous studies have suggested a higher risk of cardiac events in association with exertion. METHODS Consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction were identified by recording all admissions to our hospital in Berlin and by monitoring a general population of 330,000 residents in Augsburg, Germany. Information on the circumstances of each infarction was obtained by means of standardized interviews. The data analysis included a comparison of patients with matched controls and a case-crossover comparison (one in which each patient serves as his or her own control) of the patients usual frequency of exertion with the last episode of exertion before the onset of myocardial infarction. RESULTS From January 1989 through December 1991, 1194 patients (74 percent of whom were men; mean age [+/- SD], 61 +/- 9 years) completed the interview 13 +/- 6 days after infarction. We found that 7.1 percent of the case patients had engaged in physical exertion (> or = 6 metabolic equivalents) at the onset of infarction, as compared with 3.9 percent of the controls at the onset of the control event. For the patients as compared with the matched controls, the adjusted relative risk of having engaged in strenuous physical activity at the onset of infarction or the control event was 2.1 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 3.6). The case-crossover comparison yielded a similar relative risk of 2.1 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.6 to 3.1) for having engaged in strenuous physical activity within one hour before myocardial infarction. Patients whose frequency of regular exercise was less than four and four or more times per week had relative risks of 6.9 and 1.3, respectively (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS A period of strenuous physical activity is associated with a temporary increase in the risk of having a myocardial infarction, particularly among patients who exercise infrequently. These findings should aid in the identification of the triggering mechanisms for myocardial infarction and improve prevention of this common and serious disorder.

High prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in Southern Germany: Target populations for efficient screening. The KORA survey 2000

Aims/hypothesisTo estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and their relations with cardiovascular risk factors in the general population aged 55 to 74 years in Southern Germany.MethodsOral glucose tolerance tests were carried out in a random sample of 1353 subjects aged 55 to 74 years participating in the KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) Survey 2000. Prevalences of glucose tolerance categories (1999 WHO criteria) were adjusted for sample probabilities. The numbers needed to screen (NNTS) to identify one person with undiagnosed diabetes were estimated from age-adjusted logistic regression models.ResultsSample design-based prevalences of known and unknown diabetes, IGT, and IFG were 9.0%, 9.7%, 16.8%, 9.8% in men, and 7.9%, 6.9%, 16.0%, 4.5% in women, respectively. In both sexes, participants with undiagnosed diabetes had higher BMI, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, uric acid, and lower HDL-cholesterol than normoglycaemic subjects. A combination of abdominal adiposity, hypertension, and parental diabetes in men resulted in a NNTS of 2.9 (95%CI: 2.0–4.6). In women, the combination of increased triglycerides, hypertension and parental diabetes history yielded a NNTS of 3.2 (95%CI: 2.2–5.1).Conclusion/interpretationAbout 40% of the population aged 55 to 74 years in the Augsburg region have disturbed glucose tolerance or diabetes. Half of the total cases with diabetes are undiagnosed. Cardiovascular risk factors worsen among glucose tolerance categories, indicating the need for screening and prevention. Screening for undiagnosed diabetes could be most efficient in individuals with abdominal adiposity (men), hypertriglyceridaemia (women), hypertension, and parental diabetes history.

C-reactive Protein Modulates Risk Prediction Based on the Framingham Score: Implications for Future Risk Assessment: Results From a Large Cohort Study in Southern Germany

Background—The Framingham Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) prediction score is recommended for global risk assessment in subjects prone to CHD. Recently, C-reactive protein (CRP) has emerged as an independent predictor of CHD. We sought to assess the potential of CRP measurements to enhance risk prediction based on the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) in a large cohort of middle-aged men from the general population. Methods and Results—We measured CRP and traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline in 3435 white men of German nationality, 45 to 74 years of age. All men were drawn from 3 random samples of the general population in the Augsburg area located in Southern Germany in 1984 to 1985, 1989 to 1990, and 1994 to 1995 (response rate, 80%), and the FRS was calculated in all of them. Outcome was defined as nonfatal and fatal coronary events, including sudden cardiac death. During an average follow-up of 6.6 years, a total of 191 coronary events occurred. Cox regression showed a significant contribution of CRP to coronary event risk prediction independent of the FRS (P =0.0002). In stratified analysis for 5 categories of FRS, CRP significantly added prognostic information to the FRS in subjects in 2 intermediate risk categories (P =0.03 and P =0.02). Conclusions—Our results suggest that CRP enhances global coronary risk as assessed by the FRS, especially in intermediate risk groups. This might have implications for future risk assessment.

Framingham risk function overestimates risk of coronary heart disease in men and women from Germany—results from the MONICA Augsburg and the PROCAM cohorts

BACKGROUND The prediction of the absolute risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is commonly based on risk prediction equations that originate from the Framingham Heart Study. However, differences in population risk levels compromise the external validity of these risk functions. SETTING AND STUDY POPULATION Participants aged 35-64 years from the MONICA Augsburg (2861 men and 2925 women) and the PROCAM (5527 men and 3155 women) cohorts were followed-up with regard to incident non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and fatal coronary events. For each participant, the predicted absolute risk of fatal plus non-fatal events was derived using Framingham risk equations. Predicted and actually observed risks were compared. RESULTS The two cohorts were similar in their baseline characteristics. Coronary risk predicted by the Framingham risk function substantially exceeded the risk actually observed in the German cohorts, irrespective of gender. The difference between predicted and observed absolute CHD risk increased with age while the ratio of predicted over observed risk remained constant at about a value of 2. Taking potentials for underascertainment in the German cohorts due to unrecognised MI and sudden deaths into account, the residual magnitude of risk overestimation by the Framingham risk function is probably at least 50%. CONCLUSIONS Local guidelines for the management of patients with risk factors need to correct for this overestimation to avoid inadequate initiation of treatment and inflation of costs in primary prevention. Similar studies should be conducted in other populations with the aim of defining appropriate factors that calibrate absolute risk predictions to local population levels of CHD risk.

Lipoprotein-Associated Phospholipase A2 Adds to Risk Prediction of Incident Coronary Events by C-Reactive Protein in Apparently Healthy Middle-Aged Men From the General Population Results From the 14-Year Follow-Up of a Large Cohort From Southern Germany

Background—Chronic inflammation represents an essential feature of the atherosclerotic process. Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2), an enzyme mainly produced by monocytes/macrophages, generates potent proinflammatory products. Methods and Results—Plasma concentrations of Lp-PLA2 were determined by ELISA in 934 apparently healthy men aged 45 to 64 years sampled from the general population in 1984 and followed up until 1998. During this period, 97 men experienced a coronary event diagnosed according to the MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) protocol. Baseline levels of Lp-PLA2 were higher in subjects who experienced an event than in event-free subjects (295±113 versus 263±79 ng/mL, P<0.01). Lp-PLA2 was positively correlated with total cholesterol (R=0.30, P<0.0001) and age (R=0.12, P=0.001), was only slightly correlated with HDL cholesterol (R=0.09, P=0.005) and C-reactive protein R=0.06, P=0.06), but was not correlated with body mass index or blood pressure. In a Cox model, a 1-SD increase in Lp-PLA2 was associated with risk of future coronary events (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.62). After controlling for potential confounders, the HR was attenuated but remained statistically significant (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.47). Further inclusion of C-reactive protein in the model did not appreciably affect its predictive ability (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.45). Conclusions—Elevated levels of Lp-PLA2 appeared to be predictive of future coronary events in apparently healthy middle-aged men with moderately elevated total cholesterol, independent of CRP. This suggests that Lp-PLA2 and CRP may be additive in their ability to predict risk of coronary heart disease.

Population Versus Clinical View of Case Fatality From Acute Coronary Heart Disease Results From the WHO MONICA Project 1985–1990

BACKGROUND The clinical view of case fatality (CF) from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in those reaching the hospital alive is different from the population view. Registration of both hospitalized AMI cases and out-of-hospital coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths in the WHO MONICA Project allows both views to be reconciled. The WHO MONICA Project provides the largest data set worldwide to explore the relationship between CHD CF and age, sex, coronary event rate, and first versus recurrent event. METHODS AND RESULTS All 79,669 events of definite AMI or possible coronary death, occurring from 1985 to 90 among 5,725,762 people, 35 to 64 years of age, in 29 MONICA populations are the basis for CF calculations. Age-adjusted CF (percentage of CHD events that were fatal) was calculated across populations, stratified for different time periods, and related to age, sex, and CHD event rate. Median 28-day population CF was 49% (range, 35% to 60%) in men and 51% (range, 34% to 70%) in women and was particularly higher in women than men in populations in which CHD event rates were low. Median 28-day CF for hospitalized events was much lower: in men 22% (range, 15% to 36%) and in women 27% (range, 19% to 46%). Among hospitalized events CF was twice as high for recurrent as for first events. CONCLUSIONS Overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events compared with all events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. Because approximately two thirds of 28-day CHD deaths in men and women occurred before reaching the hospital, opportunities for reducing CF through improved care in the acute event are limited. Major emphasis should be on primary and secondary prevention.

Independent association of various smoking characteristics with markers of systemic inflammation in menResults from a representative sample of the general population (MONICA Augsburg Survey 1994/95)

AIMS Aim of the study was to investigate the association between various markers of systemic inflammation and a detailed history of smoking in a large representative sample of the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS The effects of chronic smoking on white blood cell (WBC) count, fibrinogen, albumin, plasma viscosity (PV), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in 2305 men and 2211 women, age 25-74 years, participating in the third MONICA Augsburg survey 1994/95. In men, current smokers showed statistically significantly higher values for WBC count, fibrinogen, PV, and CRP, compared to never smokers, with intermediate, but only slightly increased values for ex-smokers and for occasional smokers. No consistent associations were seen with albumin. Duration of smoking was positively associated with markers of inflammation as were pack-years of smoking. Conversely, duration of abstinence from smoking was inversely related to these markers. Except for WBC count, no such associations were found in women. CONCLUSION Data from this large representative population show strong associations between smoking and various markers of systemic inflammation in men. They also show that cessation of smoking is associated with a decreased inflammatory response, which may represent one mechanism responsible for the reduced cardiovascular risk in these subjects.

Association of serum uric acid with all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality and incident myocardial infarction in the MONICA Augsburg cohort. World Health Organization Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Diseases.

Because previous findings have been inconsistent, we explored the association of serum concentrations of uric acid with all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality and myocardial infarction prospectively. We used data from 1,044 men who are members of the World Health Organization Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Diseases (MONICA) Augsburg cohort. The men, 45-64 years of age in 1984-1985, were followed through 1992. There were 90 deaths, 44 of which were related to cardiovascular disease; 60 men developed incident nonfatal or fatal myocardial infarction. We estimated hazard rate ratios from Cox proportional hazard models. Uric acid levels > or =373 micromol/liter (fourth quartile) vs < or =319 micromol/liter (first and second quartile) independently predicted all-cause mortality [hazard rate ratio = 2.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-5.0] after adjustment for alcohol, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, hypertension, use of diuretic drugs, smoking, body mass index, and education. The adjusted risk of cardiovascular disease mortality was 2.2 (95% CI = 1.0-4.8), and that of myocardial infarction was 1.7 (95% CI = 0.8-3.3). Although residual confounding cannot be excluded, our results are among the few, in men, demonstrating a strong positive association of elevated serum uric acid with all-cause mortality. Future investigations may be able to evaluate whether uric acid contributes independently to the development of cardiovascular disease or is simply a component of the atherogenic metabolic condition known as the insulin resistance syndrome.

Effect of Compensated Renal Dysfunction on Approved Heart Failure Markers Direct Comparison of Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) and N-Terminal Pro-BNP

Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal pro-BNP (NT-proBNP) are markers of heart failure. Although renal dysfunction may increase plasma concentrations, the magnitude of this effect has not been assessed in a head-to-head comparison between the clinically approved tests. We assessed the effect of compensated renal dysfunction on BNP (Triage BNP; Biosite) and NT-proBNP (elecsys proBNP; Roche) in 469 randomly selected stable outpatients after myocardial infarction (MI; Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Diseases [MONICA] register Augsburg) who were characterized with respect to renal function (glomerular filtration rate [GFR]; Cockroft method) and left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF) and mass (2D echocardiography). BNP and NT-proBNP were elevated in MI patients with LV dysfunction (LVD; EF <35%) compared with MI patients with preserved EF (>45%; BNP 139±27 pg/mL versus 75±6; NT-proBNP 816±237 pg/mL versus 243±20; both P<0.03). Among all MI patients, the prevalence of renal dysfunction (GFR <85 mL/min) was 24%. BNP and NT-proBNP were significantly elevated in MI patients with renal dysfunction (BNP 132±17 pg/mL versus 68±4 without renal dysfunction; NT-proBNP 535±80 pg/mL versus 232±19; both P<0.05), and both markers were correlated with GFR in univariate and multivariate analyses (all P<0.01). When binary cut-off values were stratified according to the absence or presence of renal dysfunction (BNP 75 pg/mL and 125 pg/mL, respectively; NT-proBNP 100 pg/mL and 350pg/mL, respectively), the predictive power of both markers for the detection of LVD increased substantially. BNP and NT-proBNP are almost similarly influenced by mild-to-moderate renal dysfunction. Renal dysfunction is a potential cause of elevated marker concentrations in the absence of LVD, and cut-off concentrations should be stratified according to renal function.